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2013/12/12
According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, the impressive sales of smartphones and tablets have prompted DRAM manufacturers to gradually shift their focus from PC DRAM to Mobile DRAM since 2010 The proportion of DRAM revenues accounted for by the latter has risen from 14% in 2010 to about 35% this year, and is expected to show continuous growth in the next two years Based on comparisons of the supply bit growth figures, Mobile DRAM is likely to not only replace PC DRAM as the mainstream DRAM product in 2014, but also show the largest shipment numbers within the industry The three major DRAM manufacturers (Samsung, SK Hynix, New Micron Group) are each expected to direct attention from PC DRAM to Mobile DRAM despite the difficulties of adjusting the latter's design, product mix, and bringing the cost down In the coming periods, the amount of profits generated within the Mobile DRAM industry is expected to be noticeably different among the competitors depends on their core competence on Mobile DRAM area
LPDDR3 to Become Mainstream in 2014 as Application Opportunities Increase
TrendForce's assistant vice president, Avril Wu, notes that the demand for Mobile DRAM will remain strong as smartphone shipments continue to grow, and projects that next year's industry bit growth will surpass 40% With the integration between data and internet furthering、Android upgrades and 4G connectivity both raising the bar for hardware specs, the demands for increased Mobile DRAM content per box will likely continue In the high-end smartphone market, 3GB is expected to gradually become the mainstream format
Looking at the Notebook market, given the increased opportunities for applying Mobile DRAM to Ultralike devices and the replacements of traditional DDR3, an increasing number of products are beginning to show respectable power management performances Various suppliers have begun to grow more active in their product development efforts as consumers begin showing interest in power saving features, light weight, and efficiency The proportion of the new LPDDR3 is currently anticipated to rise rapidly in 2014, and will eventually replace LPDDR2 as the mainstream product in the market In the same year, more and more LPDDR3 eMCP will be delivered to clients for testing The next generation LPDDR4 may be produced in limited quantities during 2015, and officially replace LPDDR3 as the mainstream item in 2016
Smartphone Sales to Boost Mobile DRAM Demand, Ensure Price Stability
Looking at the production side, given the encountered technological obstacles and the physical-limitation issues, more and more mainstream manufacturers are decelerating the pace at which they are migrating towards 25nm technology In the event that manufacturing costs do not decrease easily, and with the numbers of supplies tightening, the Mobile DRAM price reductions are projected to ease on a quarterly basis, and in turn give the three main DRAM manufacturers greater room for profit
Regarding the issue of sufficiency, even though Mobile DRAM technically does not belong to the “commodity” product category, the general pattern shown in the 2014 supply and demand curve indicates the possibility of a tight Mobile DRAM supply situation in 2H14 With the DRAM industry's wafer start capacity not expected to undergo any major changes and the crowd out effect expected for various product lines, Mobile DRAM production is unlikely to experience any major growth, and the average retail prices are expected to remain steady
As smartphones, tablets, and Ultralike products continue to use Mobile DRAM, both its usage rate and content per box are anticipated to grow TrendForce predicts that the Mobile DRAM contract prices will gradually increase as its supplies begin to tighten throughout 2H14 For next year, Mobile DRAM is anticipated to show the least price drop and become the DRAM industry’s most profit stable product
2013/12/02
According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, the 2H13 DRAM prices were initially expected to weaken due to SK Hynix's gradual recovery from the fire accident and the sluggish demand in the market However, with one of the first tier PC DRAM makers experiencing various shipment delays and resorting to other DRAM manufacturers for orders, the 2H'Nov contract prices experienced a positive turnaround The highest price and average of 4GB mainstream modules have showed an estimated 3% increase and reached US$ 35 and US$ 33, respectively For the 2GB modules, the prices reached up to as high as US$ 185 given the massive reductions in its supply
Calculating on the basis of the contract price figures, the 4Gb price is estimated at approximately US$ 406, which is close to the spot market's US$ 425 (11/28 closing price) Looking at December, it is not unlikely for contract prices to remain stable or show slight signs of growth if the yield rate issues and shipment delays continue
Affected by the Wuxi Plant fire accident, various of the manufacturers' DRAM inventory levels have dropped on a gradual basis; the majority has approximately 3~4 weeks of inventory as of this moment, whereas the more shipment-heavy PC-OEMs' inventory levels are down to approximately 3 weeks The lowered inventories, all in all, can be said to be the main reason behind the increase in contract prices With the Wuxi plant expected to make its gradual recovery, later of 1Q14 is projected to be the period during which the DRAM prices will be adjusted and return to pre-accident levels Given that the manufacturing costs are likely to improve as manufacturers gradually migrate to 25nm technology, the three major DRAM suppliers in the industry should be able to maintain steady profits
2013/11/21
According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, the upcoming off peak quarter and underwhelming worldwide demand have made manufacturers relatively unwilling to agree on the 1H'Nov contract prices Due to the persistence of such a situation, along with SK Hynix's strategic decision to lock its Q4 prices, the contract prices have remained mostly flat The 4GB average prices stayed relatively unchanged at US $32, whereas the 2GB prices remained at US$1775
Looking at the market, even though SK Hynix is still in the process of recovering, its wafer production levels have reached 30K during October In November, that number is expected to rise up to 40K-60K The full recovery of the Wuxi plant is currently projected to take place in 1Q14, despite the apparent shipment delays for various necessary equipments In an effort to ease the market shortages resulting from the fire accident, SK Hynix has immediately activated the DRAM productions at the M10 and M12 plants in Korea, which enabled output to gradually increase in November
The gradual easing of the supply is already becoming evident in the spot market: the 2Gb prices have dropped from a high of US$ 218 in early November down to approximately US$ 198, a 92% decrease The 4Gb prices, on the other hand, officially decreased by 34% to below US$ 4 Judging from the disruptions to the price uptrend that followed SK Hynix's fire accident and the underwhelming demand in the market, the Q4 contract prices are likely to either remain steady or experience a slight decline
Strategy of Three Largest DRAM Manufacturers Becomes Clear under Oligopoly Market Structure, 2014 Market Momentum Likely to Receive Boost
Following the DRAM market's transformation into an oligopoly, the three major DRAM manufacturers' 2014 strategies have become increasingly more transparent This is not only expected to influence the future development of the DRAM market in 2014, but also affect the growth of the market's largest DRAM manufacturing companies Samsung, as an example, has decided to increase production at the Line 12 and 16 plants as a means to compensate for the potential wafer losses resulting from the 25nm manufacturing process rather than to simply expand capacity While the Korean company's DRAM wafer output is expected to be the same in 2014 as it was during 2013, the main focuses of its product mix will likely shift towards Mobile DRAM and Server DRAM
With regard to SK Hynix, given that its Wuxi plant has been gradually making a recovery following the fire accident, as many as 30K wafers have been produced by the company during October With its Korean plants also increasing total DRAM production, it should not be a problem for the company’s wafer production output to reach pre-fire accident levels by the end of the year As the Wuxi plant undergoes a possible full recovery in 1Q14, the production at SK Hynix's Korean plants is expected to gradually decrease, and SK Hynix will begin to focus on advancing the manufacturing processes for its Mobile DRAM and PC DRAM product lines
Following Micron's and Elpida's official announcement of their merger in 8/1, the two companies --now collectively known as the new Micron group-- will begin to develop and migrate towards the 20nm manufacturing process The actual trial productions involving the said technology will likely be delayed to 1Q14, given the potential difficulties involved in the migration process Nevertheless, the new Micron group’s major product development plans will remain largely unchanged, and, like Samsung, the major products of its future product mix are set to be Mobile DRAM and Server DRAM Looking towards 2014, it appears the focuses of the main DRAM manufacturers will mostly be on adjusting product type and manufacturing technologies In the event that the manufacturers' capacities are not expanded any further, the 2014 growth rate is likely to be only 28%, which is far lower than the 50% and above growth observed in the past (DRAM growth has been below 30% in the past three years) As the three biggest DRAM manufacturers begin to focus on profits more than market share, the market has a legitimate chance of returning to a steady state
2013/11/19
According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, the mobile DRAM price reductions have eased due to the increased number of Q3 smartphone shipments and SK Hynix's Wuxi plant fire accident Looking at the market, the Q3 mobile DRAM revenues have jumped by an estimated 14% QoQ to US$ 33 billion, representing more than 30% of the entire market's DRAM revenue The revenue number has a chance of increasing further should future shipments continue to rise
Observing the mobile DRAM companies' rankings, TrendForce's assistant vice president Avril Wu notes that the two main Korean manufacturers' market shares are continuing to grow and currently add up to a total of 763% Given that Samsung's market share alone is already more than 50%, both its pricing and product strategies are expected to affect the future productions of mobile DRAM considerably In the periods ahead, further impacts on the mobile DRAM industry are likely to arise from the changes experienced by Micron's supply chain following its official merger with Elpida With the potential changes affecting the structure of market demand, the shipment of mobile DRAM is likely to officially surpass that of PC DRAM in 2014
Samsung to Use Third Party Components for Smartphones, SK Hynix to be the Greatest Beneficiary
Samsung's mobile DRAM market share has improved from 503 % in 2Q13 to 513% in the following quarter Given that the Korean company's Galaxy devices are expected to use mobile DRAM components from both SK Hynix and Micron, TrendForce projects that Samsung's future market share will end up being around 40%~50% With its emphasis shifting from market share to profits, Samsung will likely place an increased amount of focus on improving the time-to-market (TTM) for its next generation LPDDR3 and 6Gb mono products
SK Hynix's mobile DRAM market share appears to be largely unchanged from the previous quarter, decreasing slightly from 257% to 25% Its mobile DRAM revenue, on the other hand, showed an increase of approximately 108% QoQ In China, the growth of SK Hynix's smartphone market share appears to be persisting thanks to the reservations various branded manufacturers hold towards Samsung’s components Looking at the future, both SK Hynix and Samsung have equally impressive plans for their mobile DRAM products: both are in the process of migrating towards the 25nm manufacturing process, and both have already delivered samples of LPDDR3 6 Gb to their clients The distance between the two companies will likely grow smaller as Samsung begins to look elsewhere for its mobile components
New Micron Group Shows Potential despite Shrinking Market Share
The new Micron group's mobile DRAM market share – combined for the first time for the purpose of assessing the Q3 revenue rankings — has reached 221% in 3Q13, while its Q3 revenues grew by 107% QoQ The increase in its revenues is mainly due to the growing demand for Apple products during the peak quarter, which prompted Rexchip, Elpida’s subsidiary branch in Taiwan, to take steps to raise its entire mobile DRAM production Other than smartphones and tablets, products such as Apple's MacBook Air (which uses LPDDR3) and higher DRAM capacity per unit are also likely to strengthen Micron's future development In the periods ahead, it is believed that the merger between Micron and Elpida will help enable the two companies’ mobile DRAM product line to be more complete The MCP and eMCP products, in particular, are likely to provide a noticeable boost to the new Micron group’s 2014 revenues
Taiwanese DRAM Manufacturers to Direct Attention towards Large Density Mobile DRAM and China Market, Partner with Module Manufacturers on eMCP
Winbond's mobile DRAM revenue has decreased by approximately 20% compared to the previous quarter, giving it a global market share of 07% and a mobile DRAM revenue share of 13% Due to the changes taking place in the entire global smartphone market and the lowered shipments of feature phones, the shipment performances of small density DRAM have become increasingly weaker Other than developing various mid to low density mobile DRAM for 4G/LTE Basebands, Winbond has begun to shift much of its attention towards the larger density LPDDR1 and LPDDR2 products, and is currently getting ready for the mass production phase In the future, the Taiwanese company is likely to begin taking advantage of the foundry services provided by Powerchip, which uses a more advanced manufacturing process This will help the company lower its overall manufacturing cost
Looking at Nanya, given that its mobile DRAM has officially entered mass production, its Q3 revenues were able to jump by nearly 200% QoQ Its market share, meanwhile, rose from 03% in 2Q13 to 09% in the following quarter At the moment, LPDDR2 4Gb is among the notable products that are ready to be mass produced (the mass production of the other major product line, LPDDR3 4Gb, is likely to follow soon after) With Nanya's mainstream manufacturing process involving 30nm technology, the company has a legitimate shot of competing effectively against a number of first tier manufacturers Nanya's current plans are to focus on promoting its mobile DRAM products in China and to work with first tier module manufacturing plants on making eMCP products
2013/11/12
According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, the Q3 worldwide DRAM revenues showed a 9% QoQ increase despite the price growth in 3Q13 being slower than that of 1H13 The Q3 revenue growth is mostly attributable to the improvements in the structure of the DRAM industry, and is likely to enable various DRAM vendors to sustain their profitability On average, all three of the biggest DRAM manufacturers were able to enjoy an estimated 2% QoQ increase in their operating margins, with the output of PC DRAM being a key differentiating factor
TrendForce’s assistant vice president, Avril Wu, indicates that SK Hynix was able to enjoy an operating income growth of approximately 34% --beating Samsung for the second straight quarter-- thanks to the relatively larger output proportion of PC DRAM While the 2H13 DRAM prices were originally expected to drop amid weak market demand, the fire accident experienced by SK Hynix’s Wuxi plant in September helped turned things around by allowing the ASP uptrend to continue In 2013, the total worldwide DRAM revenue is likely to experience an estimated growth of 40% compared to the previous year, with the three major DRAM manufacturers in the industry likely to enjoy the most significant profit momentum
Looking at the branded DRAM manufacturer ranking for Q3, Samsung and SK Hynix each account for approximately 37% and 29% of the market, respectively A part of the reason for the increased difference between the two manufacturers’ revenue shares is that Samsung has raised the proportion of its PC DRAM as a means to reclaim territory in the market and to improve its profitability In the long run, the Korean company’s capacity adjustments are likely to become increasingly more flexible as it seeks out other potential vendors to supply mobile DRAM components for its smartphones and increases the DRAM capacity in its Line 16 plant The added DRAM production is expected to be approximately 30K per month by the end of this year, and is likely to be enough to make up for the yield losses resulting from the company’s 25nm process migrations In the future, even if mobile DRAM components continue to account for the largest proportion of its product mix, Samsung’s PC DRAM output is still likely to expand from 20% to around 25% A noticeable impact on the future pricing movements can be expected should such an expansion occur
With regard to SK Hynix, given that the Q3 PC DRAM price increase is lower than that of previous quarter, its revenue growth in 3Q13 ended up being only 37% (compared to the 407% growth from 2Q13) Regardless, the Korean company still managed to maintain respectable profit momentum, and saw a 34% increase in its operating margins, the highest among the DRAM manufacturers Looking ahead to 4Q13, with SK Hynix’s PC DRAM output shrinking from 35% to 25% following the Wuxi plant fire accident, it is predicted that Samsung will eventually be able to reclaim its profit lead The recovery period of the Wuxi plant, which remains unclear at the moment, will likely play a crucial role in determining 2014’s pricing momentum
When added together, Micron’s and Elpida’s revenue represents approximately 262% of the market, and is only 2% less than that of SK Hynix The new Micron group’s monthly output level has become the second largest in the industry following the markets transformation into an oligopoly in 3Q13 With the new company group’s 30nm manufacturing process still relatively behind those of its major competitors and Elpida’s average selling price being somewhere below the industry standard, the entire company’s ability to profit in the short term is slightly impacted However, given that it is planning to gradually migrate to the 25/20nm manufacturing process and is looking to get each of its plants to maximize efficiency by focusing on specific products, Micron's ability to generate respectable profit in the future should not be underestimated When looked at from the perspective of the PC DRAM market, the new Micron group’s total output already represents one third of the entire industry Such a status undoubtedly provides a major boost to the company's influence in the market
Looking at the Taiwanese manufacturers, considering the fact that Nanya has stopped obtaining wafers from Inotera since 3Q13, that its output has undergone a notable reduction following the migration to the 30nm process, and that its PC DRAM production proportion has been lowered, the company was not able to experience much benefit from the market effects of SK Hynix's Wuxi Plant fire accident Nanya’s revenue, by the end of 3Q13, declined by an estimated 83% Powerchip’s revenues, by contrast, jumped by nearly 75% as the company chose to re-establish its P3 plant’s foundry services in May The Taiwanese company, additionally, also benefitted from the rise in the price of its foundry services and the increase in orders for the more profitable products Affected by the gradually lowered featurephone shipments of its clients, Winbond’s business for small density mobile DRAM took a hit, and its revenues slid by approximately 52% QoQ Following the impact of SK Hynix’s Wuxi plant fire accident on specialty DRAM, there is a possible chance that the Taiwanese company’s revenue will rebound during 4Q13
Observing the entire market, TrendForce believes that the Wuxi plant fire accident will continue to have a major impact on the Q4 momentum and development prospects of the three major DRAM manufacturers in the industry Samsung is already taking steps to ramp up the proportion of its PC DRAM wafers, for example, while SK Hynix is looking to get its Wuxi plant to fully recover Micron, in the meantime, has been increasing its efforts to develop its 20nm manufacturing process Even with the DRAM market becoming an oligopoly and price stability and profits becoming the major focuses within the industry, there’s little question that the competition among the above three manufacturers will continue in the periods ahead
