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2023/07/05
TrendForce reports that continued production cuts by DRAM suppliers have led to a gradual quarterly decrease in overall DRAM supply Seasonal demand, on the other hand, is helping to mitigate inventory pressure on suppliers TrendForce projects that the third quarter will see the ASP for DRAM converging towards a 0~5% decline Despite suppliers’ concerted efforts, inventory levels persistently remain high, keeping prices low While production cutbacks may help to curtail quarterly price declines, a tangible recovery in prices may not be seen until 2024
PC DRAM: The benefits of consolidated production cuts on DDR4 by the top three suppliers are expected to become evident in the third quarter Furthermore, inventory pressure on suppliers has been partially alleviated due to aggressive purchasing by several OEMs at low prices during 2Q23 Evaluating average price trends for PC DRAM products in 3Q23 reveals that DDR4 will continue to remain in a state of persistent oversupply, leading to an expected quarterly price drop of 3~8% DDR5 prices—influenced by suppliers’ efforts to maintain prices and unmet buyer demand—are projected to see a 0–5% quarterly decline The overall ASP of PC DRAM is projected to experience a QoQ decline of 0~5% in the third quarter
Server DRAM: Buyer inventories remain high and the transition to new platforms has fallen short of expectations Despite the recent investment focus by CSPs on AI server equipment, which is accelerating the procurement of high-capacity server DRAM such as DDR5 128G and HBM, there hasn’t been a significant reduction in server DRAM inventories The price decline for DDR4 and DDR5 stands at approximately 3~8% and 0~5% respectively, signaling a persistently weak pricing trend for server DRAM products Consequently, average server DRAM prices are forecasted to decline by about 0~5% in 3Q23
Mobile DRAM: Even though smartphone demand was weak in 1H23, the traditional peak season and concurrent production cuts by suppliers are expected to drive up demand for mobile DRAM However, these measures offer limited assistance in being able to substantially reduce suppliers’ inventory levels Successive price declines over past quarters have now reached baseline prices for suppliers, prompting Korean firms to lead a hike in mobile DRAM prices But due to the prevailing oversupply, a standoff has ensued between buyers and sellers The ASP of mobile DRAM is predicted to fall by 0~5% in 3Q23, although sporadic price increases may occur due to strategic moves made by suppliers
Graphics DRAM: The NVIDIA RTX 40 series, along with the traditional peak season, is anticipated to stimulate a significant upswing in demand for graphics DRAM—particularly GDDR6 16Gb—during the third quarter However, given that buyers accumulated stock ahead of time in the second quarter and now hold substantial inventory, suppliers may find themselves unable to increase prices in a market that remains in a state of oversupply Therefore, the market price of mainstream GDDR6 16Gb is projected to see a quarterly drop of 0~5% in the third quarter, mirroring an approximate 0~5% decline in ASP for graphics DRAM
Consumer DRAM: The market is currently witnessing a sluggish transactional pace SK hynix plans to expand the supply of DDR3 and DDR4 4Gb at its Wuxi fab, gradually increasing production capacity Simultaneously, Winbond has transitioned into the mass production stage, with an increase in wafer input expected each quarter As a result, the consumer DRAM market continues to grapple with oversupply Nevertheless, suppliers are progressively cutting back production, the benefits which are expected to materialize in the third quarter Given the substantial operating losses incurred by these suppliers, these factors should curtail the decline in ASP of consumer DRAM to 0~5% in 3Q23
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/06/28
High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is emerging as the preferred solution for overcoming memory transfer speed restrictions due to the bandwidth limitations of DDR SDRAM in high-speed computation HBM is recognized for its revolutionary transmission efficiency and plays a pivotal role in allowing core computational components to operate at their maximum capacity Top-tier AI server GPUs have set a new industry standard by primarily using HBM TrendForce forecasts that global demand for HBM will experience almost 60% growth annually in 2023, reaching 290 million GB, with a further 30% growth in 2024
TrendForce's forecast for 2025, taking into account five large-scale AIGC products equivalent to ChatGPT, 25 mid-size AIGC products from Midjourney, and 80 small AIGC products, the minimum computing resources required globally could range from 145,600 to 233,700 Nvidia A100 GPUs Emerging technologies such as supercomputers, 8K video streaming, and AR/VR, among others, are expected to simultaneously increase the workload on cloud computing systems due to escalating demands for high-speed computing
HBM is unequivocally a superior solution for building high-speed computing platforms, thanks to its higher bandwidth and lower energy consumption compared to DDR SDRAM This distinction is clear when comparing DDR4 SDRAM and DDR5 SDRAM, released in 2014 and 2020 respectively, whose bandwidths only differed by a factor of two Regardless of whether DDR5 or the future DDR6 is used, the quest for higher transmission performance will inevitably lead to an increase in power consumption, which could potentially affect system performance adversely Taking HBM3 and DDR5 as examples, the former's bandwidth is 15 times that of the latter and can be further enhanced by adding more stacked chips Furthermore, HBM can replace a portion of GDDR SDRAM or DDR SDRAM, thus managing power consumption more effectively
TrendForce concludes that the current driving force behind the increasing demand is AI servers equipped with Nvidia A100, H100, AMD MI300, and large CSPs such as Google and AWS, which are developing their own ASICs It is estimated that the shipment volume of AI servers, including those equipped with GPUs, FPGAs, and ASICs, will reach nearly 12 million units in 2023, marking an annual growth rate of almost 38% TrendForce also anticipates a concurrent surge in the shipment volume of AI chips, with growth potentially exceeding 50%
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/04/24
TrendForce reports that mass production of new server platforms—such as Intel Sapphire Rapids and AMD Genoa—is imminent However, recent market reports have indicated a PMIC compatibility issue for server DDR5 RDIMMs; DRAM suppliers and PMIC vendors are working to address the problem TrendForce believes this will have two effects: First, DRAM suppliers will temporarily procure more PMICs from Monolithic Power Systems (MPS), which supplies PMICs without any issues Second, supply will inevitably be affected in the short term as current DDR5 server DRAM production still uses older processes, which will lead to a convergence in the price decline of DDR5 server DRAM in 2Q23—from the previously estimated 15~20% to 13~18%
As previously mentioned, PMIC issues and the production process relying on older processes are all having a short-term impact on the supply of DDR5 server DRAM SK hynix has gradually ramped up production and sales of 1α-nm, which, unlike 1y-nm, has yet to be fully verified by consumers Current production processes are still being dominated by Samsung and SK hynix’s 1y-nm and Micron’s 1z-nm; 1α and 1β-nm production is projected to increase in 2H23
TrendForce estimates that DDR5 server DRAM 32 GB prices are expected to decrease to US$80–90 during April and May, owing to lower fulfillment rates of DDR5 server DRAM in the short term However, this price estimate is slightly higher than the previous Q2 average estimate of US$75 In contrast, DDR4 prices are projected to fall by 18–23% in 2Q23, whereas DDR5 prices are expected to drop by 13–18% This indicates a larger quarterly price decline for DDR4 than DDR5, as the price gap between the two widens
AI indirectly helps drive up demand, 128 GB high-capacity modules see prices stop falling in April
The explosive popularity of ChatBOT has driven up demand for AI server shipments, leading to talks about HBM and boosting purchasing power for 128 GB server DDR5 RDIMM to accommodate ChatGPT 40 computing architecture This has led to an increase in demand for high-capacity RDIMMs in early 2Q23, primarily from US CSPs TrendForce reports that 128 GB RDIMMs require Through-silicon VIA (TSV) packaging, as the DDR5 mono die is mostly 16Gb However, main suppliers cannot increase their TSV production capacity in the short term, leading to further price increases for SK hynix’s high-capacity DDR5 modules this month This is in contrast to the current downward trend in the prices of DDR4 and other DDR5 products
Overall, compared to DDR4, DDR5 modules require PMIC components, which introduces the possibility of compatibility risks In the meanwhile, clients have also been delaying the mass production of new server platform models Even though DRAM suppliers have already been sending out samples to CPU vendors and buyers since early 2022, practical issues have only just begun to emerge as new server production ramps up TrendForce believes that the resulting changes in the price difference between DDR4 and DDR5 will be reflected in Q2 and Q3 of this year As the production of new products begins to ramp up, the price gap will converge
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/04/18
A strong growth in AI server shipments has driven demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM) TrendForce reports that the top three HBM suppliers in 2022 were SK hynix, Samsung, and Micron, with 50%, 40%, and 10% market share, respectively Furthermore, the specifications of high-end AI GPUs designed for deep learning have led to HBM product iteration To prepare for the launch of NVIDIA H100 and AMD MI300 in 2H23, all three major suppliers are planning for the mass production of HBM3 products At present, SK hynix is the only supplier that mass produces HBM3 products, and as a result, is projected to increase its market share to 53% as more customers adopt HBM3 Samsung and Micron are expected to start mass production sometime towards the end of this year or early 2024, with HBM market shares of 38% and 9%, respectively
AI server shipment volume expected to increase by 154% in 2023
NVIDIA’s DM/ML AI servers are equipped with an average of four or eight high-end graphics cards and two mainstream x86 server CPUs These servers are primarily used by top US cloud services providers such as Google, AWS, Meta, and Microsoft TrendForce analysis indicates that the shipment volume of servers with high-end GPGPUs is expected to increase by around 9% in 2022, with approximately 80% of these shipments concentrated in eight major cloud service providers in China and the US Looking ahead to 2023, Microsoft, Meta, Baidu, and ByteDance will launch generative AI products and services, further boosting AI server shipments It is estimated that the shipment volume of AI servers will increase by 154% this year, and a 122% CAGR for AI server shipments is projected from 2023 to 2027
AI servers stimulate a simultaneous increase in demand for server DRAM, SSD, and HBM
TrendForce points out that the rise of AI servers is likely to increase demand for memory usage While general servers have 500–600 GB of server DRAM, AI servers require significantly more—averaging between 12–17 TB with 64–128 GB per module For enterprise SSDs, priority is given to DRAM or HBM due to the high-speed requirements of AI servers, but there has yet to be a noticeable push to expand SSD capacity However, in terms of interface, PCIe 50 is more favored when it comes to addressing high-speed computing needs Additionally, AI servers tend to use GPGPUs, and with NVIDIA A100 80 GB configurations of four or eight, HBM usage would be around 320–640 GB As AI models grow increasingly complex, demand for server DRAM, SSDs, and HBM will grow simultaneously
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/03/28
TrendForce reports that several suppliers, such as Micron and SK hynix, have started scaling back DRAM production The ASP of DRAM plunged 20% in 1Q23, and this price decline is predicted to slow down to 10~15% next quarter It’s uncertain whether or not demand will recover in 2H23 Therefore, the ASP of DRAM has continued to fall as inventory levels are high from the suppliers’ side, and prices will only rebound if there is a significant decrease in production
PC DRAM: Purchase quantity from buyers has fallen drastically over the past three quarters; buyers have around 9~13 weeks of PC DRAM stock remaining Despite suppliers having already cut production in the PC DRAM segment, DDR4 8 GB module is still likely to fall by more than 10% in 2Q23 There is a possibility that PC OEMs may purchase more DRAM because prices have been down to a relatively low level, but it is still under observation whether or not this can mitigate the inventory overstock situation from the suppliers’ side TrendForce predicts the ASP of PC DRAM will fall between 10~15%
Server DRAM: Demand for server DRAM from OEMs and cloud service providers has been sluggish due to inventory adjustments In addition, consumer demand looks less than promising, prompting suppliers to increase the ratio of server DRAMs in their product mixes However, this resulted in a massive inventory pile-up during 1Q23 While most suppliers have lowered their capacity utilization rates, their efforts have yet to make a noticeable impact on declining prices TrendForce predicts that the ASP of server DRAM will fall 13~18% in 2Q23
Mobile DRAM: The DRAM inventories of smartphone brands have returned to a relatively healthy level However, these brands have mostly adopted a conservative plan of action for smartphone production, which means that buyer demand for mobile DRAM will be constrained in 2Q23 As a result, suppliers are under a great deal of pressure to sell off as much stock as possible Even with cutbacks being made in mobile DRAM production, reversing their current overstock will continue to be a challenge for these companies TrendForce predicts the ASP of mobile DRAM to continue falling as we move into 2Q23 Nevertheless, there is a possibility that the decline will shrink to 10~15%
Graphics DRAM: Buyers have been stocking up on graphics DRAM rather conservatively, while even AI has failed to make a considerable impact on demand Taking a mainstream product, the GDDR6 16 Gb, for example, TrendForce predicts ASP will fall 10~15% QoQ in 2Q23 due to constrained demand The DRAM industry is currently in the midst of transitioning from 8 to 16 Gb; Samsung’s GDDR6 8 Gb will reach its EOL at the end of the year Beginning 2024, SK hynix will be the only company still offering 8 Gb products Rolling back production could finally present an opportunity for the price of GDDR6 8 Gb to stop fluctuating aggressively
Consumer DRAM: Demand for networking devices has been relatively stable However, buyers have dialed back their procurement activities as of late given that existing orders have been completed These buyers appear to have conservative estimations of the growth potential of network-related demand this year, and the application market, which includes television, will be unable to support demand for the consumer DRAM market Supply continues to outpace demand even as suppliers reduce their production considerably TrendForce predicts that the ASP of consumer DRAM will fall 10~15% in 2Q23
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
