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2020/02/13
As smart grid development accelerates, the BESS market is expected to overtake the EV market in terms of margins in the next 5 years
BESS applications and EV will become the two pillars driving the lithium-ion battery market
According to the EnergyTrend research division of TrendForce, the integration between centralized generation and distributed smart grid is an inevitable trend in smart city initiatives Global BESS installation capacity is expected to reach 32GWh in 2020, with a 22% CAGR from 2019 to 2024
Duff Lu, senior research manager at TrendForce, indicates that the global development of large-scale centralized electricity generation systems has lasted over a century However, the call for energy conservation and carbon reduction, combined with the continued cost reduction of renewable energy, means power plants and EVs alike are seeing a need to raise their energy efficiency through BESS adoption As battery prices fell in 2018, the installation capacity of the BESS market began to rapidly increase In particular, the Korean government began subsidizing ESS for power generators in 2018, spurring the growth of the Asian BESS market
During the early stages of ESS commercialization, most companies’ safety standards were incomplete After the 2018 rush to purchase ESS equipment, a string of safety-related incidents occurred, slowing down demand growth in the Korean ESS market In comparison, the North American BESS market has had more time to develop and mature; thus, the demand for BESS is expected to slow down after 2020 following the first wave of smart grid construction After 2020, BESS will see the greatest growth in emerging markets with a high demand for power quality improvement, such as China and India As component prices drop rapidly, national governments in the emerging markets will start promoting ESS applications As a result, the Asian market is expected to undergo greater growth than North American and European markets in the future
The battery remains the most important aspect in terms of ESS component costs Owing to the development of EVs, the production capacity of lithium-ion batteries is continuing to expand, subsequently driving more competitive battery prices and stimulating the energy storage market Major global battery suppliers currently includes LG Chem, SDI, Tesla, Toshiba, and BYD
In terms of scale, LG Chem holds the largest shares in both Korean and overseas markets In addition to its long-term partnership with GM, LG has actively expanded its production in Europe in recent years, across EV and ESS industries As well, SDI has been focusing on the European market and forming partnerships with European automakers SDI’s development of cylindrical and prismatic batteries is comprehensive and mature Its cylindrical battery development is second only to that of Panasonic SDI serves as the main battery supplier of many system-end clients
Tesla acquired some much-needed experience in automotive battery production from its early partnership with Panasonic With the recent construction of US-based Gigafactory, Tesla was able to integrate more of its own proprietary battery technologies and confer both safety and cost advantages to its battery products At the moment, Tesla is also actively developing ESS sites; the company is expected to derive competitive advantages from its minimal ESS construction time
Toshiba’s high quality products are used in many demonstration zones in Japan, Europe, and North America This, along with the company’s lineup of SCiB Rechargeable Batteries, means Toshiba is now the gold standard in demonstration zone suppliers As one of the early ESS developers, BYD is able to maximize its presence in the EV and ESS markets owing to the superior stability of its LFP batteries
TrendForce believes that, as the production capacity of the abovementioned five battery manufacturers continues to expand, BESS applications and EVs will become two pillars supporting the lithium-ion battery industry Continued technical development means lithium-ion batteries will contain less and less amounts of rare materials, such as cobalt, and uncertainties in lithium-ion battery components will clear up in the future as well Unlike the increasingly popular EV, BESS is integrated into various electrical grid systems, such as smart grids, with a high level of product mix but low volumes Therefore, TrendForce expects the BESS industry to yield higher margins than the EV industry in the next five years
The coronavirus outbreak’s impact on the lithium-ion battery industry
With regards to the impact of the coronavirus outbreak, TrendForce bases its initial analysis on the industry’s production capacity concentration Specifically, Wuhan does not have a high concentration of lithium-ion battery manufacturers, as most of the production capacity of battery cells for consumer electronics is located in South China Because many consumer electronics batteries, compared to other battery types, are made according to product-specific dimensions, their production capacity is more concentrated as well The production capacity of xEV battery cells is even more distributed in comparison, with factories spread throughout East, Central, and South China Because xEV batteries have relatively standardized specs, it is easier for their supply chain to be distributed as well On the whole, the coronavirus outbreak is expected to have a wide impact on the consumer electronics battery industry in the short term
At the present, the overall Chinese battery industry is temporarily stagnant at both the upstream manufacturing end and the downstream systems assembly end because of the coronavirus outbreak Battery brands are expected to readjust their 2020 sales target after performing supply chain and consumer confidence analyses following work resumption In the short term, many 1H20 ESS installation plans will be disrupted because many key ESS modules are made in China, whereas distributed manufacturing remains the key to mid- and long-term success in the ESS industry
2019/08/01
Thanks to China's new point-based quota system for new energy vehicles and the enlarging scale of European, American and Japanese markets, opportunities in the HEV market have attracted much interest EnergyTrend , a division of TrendForce , predicts that global HEV market share will reach 5% in 2019, whereas that for pure electric vehicles will stand at only 2%
“The Chinese government announced a new point-based quota system in June that ascribes a far greater significance to HEVs” says TrendForce Senior Research Manager Duff Lu “HEVs were originally just seen as traditional vehicles in China and were not eligible items for credit accumulation But under the new system, HEVs now possess market value in the form of points On the other hand, Volkswagen has also declared that it will be introducing HEVs among its mainstream models in 2020, allowing the cell industry to extend its grasp beyond mid-high end cars and towards a wider public audience While electric vehicles still have to overcome the infrastructure hurdle of populating an environment with charging stations, an affordable array of HEVs have already been introduced in the traditional vehicle sector”
HEVs can currently be divided into two major categories: Mild/micro hybrid vehicles, mainly European; and strong hybrid vehicles, mainly led by Japanese car manufacturers An examination of developments in various countries reveals that the HEV market is mainly driven by the fact that emission laws are growing stricter by the year For 48V mild hybrid vehicles, we see Europe en route to impose full-scale a strict limit of 95g/km for carbon dioxide emissions from 2020 to 2021, especially on the widely sold, mainstream intermediates
Due to Europe being rather late in adopting HEVs and being at a disadvantage in terms of patents and costs, they've turned to micro/mild hybrid designs, which are predominantly gasoline cars with fewer modifications, in order to meet the most basic demands of emission standards while keeping the cost of power system modification under control HEV power systems are already entering mainstream models
Meanwhile, Japan focuses on full hybrid vehicles Japan will be forming a market mainly consisting of products from strong hybrid vehicles to plug-in HEVs (PHEVs), thanks to having begun development early and allowing total car cost to remain in the middle ranges Furthermore, Japanese car manufacturers have slowly turned from NiMH batteries to Lithium batteries amid falling battery prices The improvement in whole system of charging stations also incentivized the partial introduction of strong hybrid systems into PHEVs
Fuel-saving rates have also attracted the interest of China in recent years, with the Chinese government planning to reduce average fuel consumption from 69 to 5 L/100km in 2015-2020, and new energy vehicles will become a key to satisfying these demands on fuel consumption and emissions China has long been developing new energy vehicles, their interest guided by subsidies and mainly centered on pure electric vehicles TrendForce thinks that HEVs will become the main car model in European, American and Japanese markets, with growth speed surpassing that of pure electric cars Whether China may be able to catch the HEV trend with its new social credit system will also be worth observing in 2019-2020
HEVs Cell Usage Grown by Nearly 50%, with Car Manufacturers Prioritizing Lithium Batteries
Looking at battery systems, although some car manufacturers have already developed 12V or 48V micro hybrid systems, the 48V design is further able to support mild hybrid systems Battery designs reserve the 12V battery for use and switch to 48V batteries when loads increase, due to AC compressors, for instance HEVs may use lead-acid batteries and lithium batteries for voltage systems over 12V, with lead-acid batteries being the cheaper but more space-consuming option TrendForce observes that most car manufacturers will prioritize the usage of Lithium batteries for voltage systems over 12V to accomplish light-weight designs As HEVs continue to grow, total HEV battery usage (Lithium and NiMH batteries; 12V SLA batteries are not included) will grow to 1068GWh, a growth of 49% YoY
2019/06/05
As the datacenter market continues to grow, UPS demand receives a boost According to statistics by EnergyTrend , a division of TrendForce , sealed lead acid (SLA) batteries remain the most widely used UPSs for datacenters Yet lithium batteries possess advantages such as a long lifespan, quick charge/discharge speeds and a small volume, and are poised to replace SLA batteries in the future By 2019, lithium batteries comprise 12% of batteries used in datacenters This percentage is predicted to grow to 16% in 2020
Lithium Batteries Have a Cost Advantage Compared to Lead-Acid Batteries
TrendForce points out that sealed lead-acid (SLA) batteries have been here for a hundred years, and were already widely used in a variety of energy storage systems Disregarding new energy vehicles, the market scale for lead-acid batteries has already exceeded 380 GWh in 2019, forming 92% of batteries used in starting, lighting and ignition (SLI) and 75% in UPS applications The remaining applications mostly go to NiMH batteries or lithium batteries due to product size constraints Although SLA batteries possess advantages such as developmental maturity and low initial acquisition costs, its shallow-discharging nature and the need for more frequent maintenance remain difficult issues
By comparison, lithium batteries have already entered mass production thanks to the rapid expansion of new energy vehicles Prices and product technology have also become optimized as more and more suppliers enter the game Lithium batteries have a chance to expand into many more fields of application due to various factors, whether energy density, charge/discharge speeds or maturation of usage
Judging by total costs of ownership (TCO), SLA batteries often lose their initial cost advantages in the long run, since lithium batteries have a longer lifetime and a deeper depth of discharge, whereas SLA batteries require the installation of additional generators due to battery life considerations Furthermore, lithium battery solutions can effectively shrink the sizes of UPSs, and have thus gradually received wider adoption by datacenters TrendForce predicts that as lithium batteries increase in cost-performance ratio, they will be introduced into UPSs in swiftly increasing proportion
The Future of Datacenter UPS is 'Shared'
As the server industry develops, data storage configurations in datacenters will go from distributed to shared, and this transformation trend will also turn individual, distributed UPSs in the system into a shared network Besides acting as providers of backup power for datacenters and preserving the integrity and supporting continual transmission of data, the UPSs of large datacenters under the future grid structure will be able to form an emergency electrical system, providing continual power for the whole grid in the event of a grid overload Although energy storage systems in the grid today consist mainly of large, centralized battery systems, they are bound to move on to become distributed and shared in the future as smart grids reach maturity
2019/01/23
According to the latest research by EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, the market of new energy vehicle will continue to grow steadily, driving the demand for xEV batteries, despite the slowdown in global automotive market since 2018 The global demand for lithium-ion batteries used in new energy passenger cars is estimated to reach 155GWh in 2019, a growth of 63% from 95GWh in 2018
According to Duff Lu, senior research manager of EnergyTrend, China has become the world's fastest-growing market for new energy vehicles driven by the government’s subsidies and supporting policies After a rapid growth in 1H18, the shipments of new energy cars in China slowed down in 2H18, moderating the demand in the xEV battery industry as well However, with increasing penetration of new energy vehicles, the demand for lithium-ion batteries used in new energy passenger cars in China will grow to 54GWh in 2019, a growth of nearly 80% from 30GWh in 2018
In terms of supply, the production capacity of xEV battery in China has surpassed 134GWh by the end of 2018, and has a chance to reach 164GWh in 2019 Amid the oversupply and phasing out of subsidies from the Chinese government, the industry has been faced with a reshuffle since the second half of 2018 Major manufacturers have grown stronger at the expense of the demise of smaller companies Leading players like Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) and BYD continue to expand, while less competitive ones who rely too much on regional markets, such as OptimumNano Energy, may have to exit the market during the market reshuffle
EnergyTrend expects that, with new capacity entering operation in 2019, the xEV battery industry will become more concentrated The top five battery manufacturers would continue to grow and become the major suppliers Subsidies from the Chinese government will be phased out by 2020, but before that, the industry will still depend on the subsidies to cover their R&D costs for advanced battery technologies Manufacturers need to continue the development of high energy density solutions, building up competitiveness, before the electric vehicle market enters the maturity stage
2018/10/16
According to EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, eased oil prices and sliding xEV battery costs may drive Taiwan’s fledgling electric scooter market Taiwan is expected to have 78000 electric scooters in 2018, taking a share of 8% in its overall scooter market For 2019, the market share of electric scooters will reach 10%, of which 90% will be heavy electric scooters, up from 85% in 2018
According to Duff Lu, senior research manager of EnergyTrend, Taiwan’s gas scooter market is becoming saturated Taiwan government has been promoting the industry toward electrification, echoing the trend of sustainable transportation such as bike-sharing systems The government is also building public charging stations, providing subsidies to encourage the use of electric scooter and to promote clean energy
On the other hand, the costs of lithium-ion battery have been decreasing, as China continues promoting electric vehicles and its domestic xEV battery industry China has become a major supplier of raw materials for xEV battery as well, further lowering the prices of battery systems The prices of xEV battery for vehicles remained about 550 USD/kWh in 2015, then decreased to 350 USD/kWh in 2017, and are expected to slide to 250USD/kWh in 2019, boosting the battery applications
EnergyTrend notes that Taiwan is expected to have 78000 electric scooters in 2018, taking a share of 8% in its overall scooter market Light e-scooters (with lower than 5 horsepower) used to be more common in Taiwan compared with heavy ones (with 5 or higher horsepower), but the emergence of Gogoro since 2016 has gradually pushed up the demand for heavy electric scooters The price gap between heavy e-scooters and gas scooters has further narrowed since 2017, when budget scooters (with costs lower than NT$40000) were introduced Currently, heavy e-scooters account for 85% of the whole e-scooter market in Taiwan for 2018 Looking ahead, major scooter manufacturers like Gogoro, Kwang Yang Motor Co (KYMCO), and Sanyang Motor Co (SYM) have plans to launch new heavy e-scooters, which could further boost the sales volume of heavy e-scooter to 90000 units in 2019, accounting for 90% of all the electric scooters
