Search Results

Search Results

keyword


Sort by


Date Range

Resource Types


Research Fields


Filter by Keyword(s)




keyword:Ellie Wang7 result(s)

Press Releases
Due to Falling Shipments and Prices, Global DRAM Revenue for 3Q22 Showed QoQ Drop of Almost 30%—Unprecedented Since 2008 Financial Crisis, Says TrendForce

2022/11/16

Semiconductors

Global market intelligence firm TrendForce reports that for 3Q22, the revenue of the whole DRAM industry dropped by 289% QoQ to US$1819 billion This decline is the second largest to the one that the industry experienced in 2008, when the global economy was rocked by a major financial crisis Regarding the state of the DRAM market in 3Q22, the QoQ decline in contract prices widened to the range of 10~15% as the demand for consumer electronics continued to shrink Server DRAM shipments, which had been on a relatively stable trend compared with shipments of other types of DRAM products, also slowed down noticeably from the previous quarter as buyers began adjusting their inventory levels Turning to individual DRAM suppliers’ performances in 3Q22, the top three suppliers (ie, Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron) all exhibited a QoQ drop in revenue Samsung posted US$740 billion and a QoQ drop of 335%, which was the largest among the top three SK hynix’s revenue fell by 252% QoQ to around US$524 billion As for Micron, its revenue came to around US$481 billion Since Micron marks its fiscal quarters differently, its DRAM ASP showed a QoQ decline that was smaller than the ones suffered by the two Korean suppliers And as a result of this, Micron’s QoQ revenue decline was also the smallest among the top three TrendForce points out that the top three are still maintaining a relatively high operating margin at this moment Nevertheless, the inventory correction period that has started this year will last through the first half of next year, so they will experience a continuing squeeze on profit On the topic of suppliers’ capacity expansion plans, Samsung has gradually slowed down the transfer of its legacy wafer processing capacity from DRAM to CMOS image sensors due to the recent fall in demand for camera modules Next year, Samsung will raise its DRAM production capacity as its new fab P3L enters operation However, seeing that inventory reduction is not progressing at the originally anticipated pace, Samsung will decelerate its technology migration to limit its output growth Looking at SK hynix, it will also rein in its output growth next year by putting some brake on its technology migration Moving to Micron, it has pushed back the schedule for mass production with its 1beta nm process This deferment has to do with the higher difficulty level for the development of this technology and the general demand slump Micron’s output growth in 2023 is forecasted to be the smallest among the top three Furthermore, TrendForce is not ruling out the possibility of Micron making more tangible production cuts in response to the rapidly shrinking profit margin With regard to Taiwan-based DRAM suppliers, Nanya suffered the largest QoQ revenue drop among the top six suppliers in 3Q22, reaching as much as 408% Nanya’s result was attributed to the sizable share of consumer DRAM in its product mix as well as the sizable share of customers from Mainland China in its client base Moving into this fourth quarter, Nanya has already scaled back wafer input but maintains the pace of its migration to the 1A nm However, this technology will still be at the customer sample stage in 2023 as Nanya’s clients hold a cautious demand outlook and are thus not keen on adopting the more advanced process Therefore, the 1A nm process is not expected to make a noticeable contribution to Nanya’s output until 2024 Turning to PSMC, its revenue fell by around 400% QoQ for 3Q22 owing to the plummeting consumer DRAM prices PSMC’s DRAM revenue that is presented here mainly pertains to the sales of its branded DRAM products that are manufactured in-house and excludes its DRAM foundry service However, if DRAM foundry service is included in the calculation, then the QoQ decline was 229% Lastly, looking at Winbond, its 3Q22 revenue still showed a significant QoQ decline of 374% even with a fairly conservative pricing strategy This has to do with the considerable contraction of its shipments Winbond already lowered the capacity utilization rate of its fab in Taichung in 3Q22 As for the setup of its new fab in Kaohsiung, the schedule for entering the mass production phase has been pushed back slightly due to the unfavorable market situation The Kaohsiung fab will initially manufacture DRAM using the 25S nm process This is expected to be followed by the deployment of the supplier’s 20nm process in 2H23 For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
US Department of Commerce Strengthens Restrictions on China, Future Chinese Server Demand May Face Negative Growth, Says TrendForce

2022/10/12

Semiconductors

Current US sanctions on China have extended their reach to strike at HPC and sectors such as aerospace, automotive market, and military industry TrendForce indicates, the market for high-end computing chips (including CPU, GPU, etc) has borne the brunt of these restrictions at this stage, while those providing related storage such as DRAM and NAND Flash also face potential supply disruption At present, this not only includes domestic companies in mainland China but also extends to related US-based suppliers Among them, server companies that rely on high-intensity computing will face greater scrutiny Impact analysis on server terminal shipments In terms of server terminal shipments, since relevant component suppliers have not yet been able to confirm whether services provided by the four major cloud service providers (CSPs) in China, Baidu, ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent, involve military use, before CSPs sign MOUs (memoranda of understanding), component manufacturers may temporarily delay shipments to the Chinese market However, TrendForce believes, due to the fact that current CSP buyers’ component inventories remain sufficient, the short-term impact on global server market shipment performance is relatively low and long-term impact depends on the evolution of the US Department of Commerce's rules Huawei and Sugon, two companies that have received attention at this stage due to the US ban, have previously withdrawn from the x86 server market and turned into cloud business providers and whole server delivery has been transferred to other domestic OEMs and outsourced computing power leasing, so as not to be affected by sanctions However, due to the previous CPU ban, Sugon has turned to AMD to obtain authorization for localized chips, which may be significantly curtailed by this ban In 2022, Sugon's market share in the overall server market will be approximately 23% and 85% of the Chinese market TrendForce believes, it cannot be ruled out that relevant Chinese OEMs may have server products that may be rendered to government supercomputing centers in the future Inspur, H3C, and Lenovo will face more exacting future scrutiny and, if consequences intensify, the mainland Chinese industrial chain may feel direct effects Although commercial servers are not currently on the list of directly restricted items, if friction between the United States and China intensifies in the future, it cannot be ruled out that the US Department of Commerce will add more potentially risky Chinese server OEMs and CSPs onto the UVL list If certification cannot be realized within 60 days of being included in the UVL list, these entities will be included on the entity list The worst case scenario will be a future trend of negative growth in Chinese server demand Since the restrictions enumerated in this ban are primarily concentrated in the HPC field, the greatest factor affecting Sugon is the company largely providing server OEM to government departments including in supercomputers, military aerospace, and government server farms At present, there are 8 national-level supercomputing centers in mainland China and the supercomputer located in the center of Wuxi is the headquarters of China's self-developed chips including the self-developed Sunway TaihuLight As the US Department of Commerce continues to strengthen its sanctions, China's supercomputing technology and domestic research capabilities will be severely damaged in the future Impact analysis on GPU and CPU sectors At present, companies utilizing high-end graphics cards are primarily concentrated in the HPC sector In terms of CSPs, Alibaba and Baidu are the largest companies in mainland China These two CSP companies account for up to 60% of the market share of GPU usage in China Before the previous ban at the end of August, Chinese CSP operators had to submit purchase applications before procurement but they could not apply at all after the ban However, based on the premise that buyer inventory levels on hand remain high and the supply of goods through distribution channels is sufficient, no effect on demand is forecast until 1H23 Nonetheless, it will be a challenge in the long-term Since the ban expressly prohibits supercomputing center applications such as HPC, TrendForce assesses that GPU servers used by supercomputing centers will be directly affected, which accounts for up to 30% of China's GPU market In terms of chip computing performance control, ECCNs 3A090 and 4A090 are newly added sanctioned items and chips with a total processing performance of more than 4,800 (inclusive) calculated by TOPS will be restricted GPUs are usually used to directly assist in performing complex operations Basically, NVIDIA's A100 PCIe Gen4 and AMD's MI250 OAM Module exceed the 4,800 limit With new high computing performance products restricted in the future, development of server acceleration computing in China will take a hit However, the computing performance of most server CPU products is generally lower than the provisions of the ban Only Chinese-made chips such as Tianjin Haiguang face direct restrictions and other CPUs such as Intel and AMD servers will not be subject to prohibition At this stage, Intel and AMD will sign MOUs with relevant mainland Chinese manufacturers to ensure that related products cannot be used in military and supercomputing fields before shipment In today's server CPUs, the computing performance of the commonly used Intel Ice Lake CPU series does not reach the limit imposed by US sanctions Impact analysis on the memory sector At present, Samsung and SK hynix have also suspended their supply of product to Sugon If Sugon can clarify procured memory is not used for supercomputing, domestic server products, etc, the parties will be able to reach a consensus for shipment In the long run, Korean companies are evaluating whether they need a written commitment from each customer to disavow using purchasing memory products in supercomputers Therefore, some memory shipments may be affected before documents are signed The industry generally believes that market inventory remains relatively abundant and there will be no substantial damage to the market in the short term As far as SSD is concerned, the greatest utilization remains in the category of AI/DL (Deep Learning), since most of the data trained from DL must be stored in faster and more convenient SSDs for use in inference scenarios If the suspension of shipments caused by the current ban cannot be rectified by relevant buyer agreements, the development of Chinese server manufacturers in related AI/DL fields may be hamstrung and a calamitous decline in the market penetration rate of enterprise SSDs from international manufacturers cannot be ruled out Impact analysis on the networking sector There are three reasons for a relatively minor impact assessment on the well-connected suppliers in the networking sector First, there are numerous networking suppliers and many of them are in China Since the demand for key components is relatively small, Chinese suppliers should be able to keep up Second, the mainstream process in this field is a mature process and future expansion is less restricted Third, from the perspective of supplier shipments, after foundry assembly, packaging, and testing, there are multiple distribution channels for the circulation of the final product and it will be difficult to determine whether terminals are military use However, from the perspective of long-term impact, there is a high probability that Chinese manufacturers will give priority to China's local supply chain in the future to ensure future supply This move will undoubtedly deepen the resistance of other suppliers' shipments to China, so it is necessary to open up multiple shipping channels to stabilize market share For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Supply-side Inventory Proves Difficult to Dump as Demand Weakens Rapidly, Memory Manufacturers Initiate Rare Production Reduction, Says TrendForce

2022/10/03

Semiconductors

According to a TrendForce investigations, memory pricing began to decline from 4Q21 due to weakening demand for certain consumer electronics Coupled with the impact of rising inflation, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and pandemic policies, demand in peak season was weak, resulting in inventory pressure that has extended from the buyer side to manufacturers In response to the aforementioned situation, Micron announced last week that it would cut production of DRAM and NAND Flash, becoming the first major memory manufacturer to officially reduce its capacity utilization plan In terms of NAND Flash, the market situation is more severe than that of DRAM As the average contract price of mainstream capacity wafers has fallen to their cash cost and is approaching the periphery of selling at a loss for various manufacturers, Kioxia also announced that it will reduce NAND Flash capacity utilization by 30% from October on the heels of Micron’s announcement In terms of DRAM, current contract pricing remains higher than the total production cost of various mainstream suppliers Therefore, compared with NAND Flash, it remains to be seen whether there will be a significant reduction in production In addition to mentioning the slight reduction in capacity utilization in this sector currently, Micron mainly emphasized its sharp downward revision of capital expenditures in 2023 and that the annual growth of DRAM production bits next year will only be around 5% TrendForce believes, according to Micron, to actualize such conservative bit growth means that there is still room for a significant downward revision in capacity utilization and the extent to which Micron's subsequent production reductions are implemented remains to be seen In terms of NAND Flash, Micron originally planned to gradually increase its proportion of 232-layer products from 4Q22 However, with the implementation of the company’s decision to reduce production, Micron's mainstream processes are estimated to remain dominated by 176-layer products in 2023, while wafer starts in legacy processes will also fall Kioxia and WDC originally planned to migrate to 162-layer products starting in 4Q22 but WDC slowed CapEx in 2023 When funding is hard to come by and demand visibility poor, the proportion of 162-layer products will fall greatly and the company’s original plan to replace mainstream 112-layer products in 2023 will not be achieved More manufactures limiting bit output cannot be ruled out as only large-scale production reduction can reverse supply/demand imbalance in 2023 After analyzing 2023 supply and demand in the memory market, due to a conservative demand outlook, DRAM and NAND Flash look to be greatly oversupplied in each quarter and inventory pressure will continue to accelerate in 1H23 In the DRAM sector, after Micron led the way to announce a DRAM production reduction plan that will fall far below historical levels of supply-side bit growth, the 2023 DRAM Sufficiency Ratio will contract from the 116% previously forecast by TrendForce to less than 10%, helping to alleviate rapidly deteriorating inventory pressure However, more suppliers must be relied on to join in the actual reduction of DRAM production in the future in order to reverse the supply and demand imbalance next year It is imperative to reduce bit supply in the NAND Flash field due to the large number of competitors and the fact that manufacturers have yet to encroach on the physical limits of manufacturing Considering that supply-side bit growth from Micron and Kioxia has been downgraded, the 2023 NAND Flash Sufficiency Ratio will drop significantly from the original estimate of 101% to 56% Under the expectation that more NAND Flash suppliers will join the ranks reducing production due to loss considerations, inventory pressure is expected to ease in the 2Q23, while price declines are expected to diminish in 2H23 For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
DRAM Module House Revenue to Grow 7% YoY on Ascendant 2021 DRAM Pricing, Says TrendForce

2022/08/29

Semiconductors

Spurred by pandemic-induced lifestyle changes in the past two years, demand for distance education grew and sales of electronic products boomed, driving the growth of DRAM module shipments According to TrendForce statistics, overall 2021 sales in the global DRAM module market reached US$181 billion, with an annual growth rate of approximately 7% Due to different business strategies employed by each module house, revenue distribution among module houses varied According to TrendForce statistics, the world's top five memory module houses accounted for 90% of total sales in 2021 The top ten also includes 97% of global module market turnover Kingston accounts for nearly 80% of the market and it is hard to buck the trend of the rich getting richer In terms of business strategy, Kingston actively introduced IT (Information Technology) and provides a highly customized production model, leading to continuous growth in shipment scale and driving its revenue growth by 80%, ranking first ADATA largely ships consumer products In 2021, revenue benefited from demand generated by the stay-at-home economy, spurring significant growth in both shipments and per unit sales pricing  The company aggressively optimized costs and increased gross profit, pushing revenue growth to 185%, ranking second Corsair comes in third with solid revenue performance However, the company specializes in the e-sports market In 2H21, shipments slowed slightly hindered by a GPU shortage and revenue declined marginally by 31% as a result The products of another US company, SMART Module, have pervaded the industrial computer field in recent years with their main source of revenue being Europe and the United States After lockdowns were lifted, demand in Europe and the United States recovered significantly, driving SMART Module’s revenue growth by 146% and taking the company from a sixth ranking in 2020 to fourth Module Demand in China relatively weak due to spread of pandemic The order of Chinese module houses has changed slightly in this ranking while POWEV remains in fifth In addition to a complete product portfolio, the company also aggressively explores offline channels, and is the first to launch DDR5 modules, all of which have contributed to revenue to a certain extent Kimtigo ranks sixth in terms of 2021 revenue, primarily due to the pandemic in China, weak customer demand, and declining unit sales prices causing poor revenue performance Ramaxel was affected by weak purchasing momentum in China and supply chain shortages, its shipment figures falling compared with 2020, moving the company into the seventh position Innodisk makes great strides in developing AIoT smart applications, ranking first in growth The revenue of Team Group dropped slightly by 34% in 2021, primarily due to a disappointing Chia Coin cryptocurrency market causing a decline in the shipment of related products However, Team Group has been active in the industrial computer market in recent years, which is expected to stabilize future revenue growth performance Innodisk, ranked ninth, not only sells industrial computer products, but is also actively developing the AIoT market Its applications encompass networking and smart cities These sectors contributed greatly to revenue in 2021, delivering a growth rate as high as 647%, the highest among the top ten ranks Apacer, ranked tenth, has focused on the high-unit price industrial computer market in recent years, accounting for 70% of its revenue In 2021, it benefit from the recovery of demand to stimulate an increase in per unit sales price, driving revenue growth by 362%, and its development in the industrial computer field cannot be underestimated For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Sustained by Upsurge in Bit Shipments, Global 2Q22 DRAM Revenue Grows by 6.5% QoQ, Says TrendForce

2022/08/15

Semiconductors

According to TrendForce investigations, 2Q22 DRAM industry revenue reached US$2559 billion, growing 65% QoQ The primary reason for 2Q22 revenue growth stemmed from an increase in bit shipments from certain DRAM suppliers Although PC and mobile DRAM were hit hard by inflation and weak demand, momentum in the server DRAM market remained strong in 1H22, driving quarterly shipment growth at the three top manufacturers to 5~10% In terms of revenue, the top manufacturers consisting of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, all saw revenue growth with the two Korean companies accounting for a combined market share of 709% Micron benefited from demand for servers and automobiles with its 2Q22 revenue reaching US$627 billion, an increase of 97% QoQ and highest among the three Driven by revenue growth, each company’s operating margins moved up slightly with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron margins reaching 50%, 43%, and 415%, respectively Looking forward to 3Q22, due to escalating manufacturer-side inventory pressure, pricing support levels have fallen significantly and growth on the shipment-side has become labored due to the impact of customer inventory adjustment Revenue posted by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron is likely to decline In terms of production capacity planning, Samsung's wafer starts continued to increase this year, and each factory is close to full capacity While Samsung’s new P3L plant will start contributing to the production of DRAM products early next year and give priority to DRAM products using the 1alpha nm process, significantly increasing the proportion of 1alpha nm production SK Hynix's wafer starts also increased slightly, at campuses such as its M16 plant in South Korea and its Wuxi plant in China However, since M10 was migrated to logic products, total wafer starts only received a marginal boost The M16 plant still has room to expand but considering a pessimistic demand outlook, production at this plant is only expected to increase slightly in 2023 Micron has no new production capacity for overall wafer starts this year and the purpose of purchasing machinery is to maintain wafer start volume when processes advance At the same time, Micron introduced the 1alpha nm process in 2H21 and the 1beta nm will be put into production at its Japan factory at the end of this year After yield rate improves to a certain level, mass production at its Taiwan factory is expected in 2023 Micron is the fastest among the three major DRAM manufacturers when introducing processes In terms of Taiwanese factories, Nanya produces a higher proportion of Consumer DRAM Due to the impact of lockdown policies on domestic Chinese demand, shipments declined significantly and overall revenue decreased by 140% QoQ Construction of the company's new Fab5A plant has begun with a completion date of 2025 Until the new factory is completed, annual output is only expected to increase marginally PSMC's revenue calculation is primarily for its in-house standard DRAM products and does not include its DRAM foundry business DRAM revenue increased by approximately 218%, mainly due to the company's capacity allocation As its foundry production capacity was revised down, it marginally increased its in-house production of standard DRAM, but if foundry revenue is added, a decreased of 10% is realized Winbond's revenue declined slightly by 33%, mainly due to inventory corrections among Networking customers and a suspension of supply from TV manufacturers resulting in a decline in shipments At present, Winbond's Kaohsiung plant will be entirely dedicated to 25S nm production and mass production of the next-generation 20nm process is expected in mid-2023, effectively driving revenue growth For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

  • Page 1
  • 2 page(s)
  • 7 result(s)