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Keyword：Eric Chiou，
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2015/01/21
The panel price for each panel application has been constant for January 2015, akin to last month’s market environment, according to the newest price report by WitsView, a research division of TrendForce The prices for IT panels are weak relative to prices for TV panels, which temporarily remain constant
“At current phase, panel makers are not going to adjust their capacity utilization,” said WitView’s Senior Research Director, Eric Chiou, with regard to the market forecast “The IT panels’ oversupply problem persists,” Chiou continued, “so prices for monitor and notebook panels will continue to fall for a while” As for TV panels, the shipment decline during the off-season is having a negative price impact that should be not taken lightly even as particular brands are being stocked Hence, the next focus should be on possible changes to quotes on large-size panels (55 inches and above) and 4K panels
For TV panels, most brands presently have kept a healthy stock level at around two weeks However, the global LCD TV market may fall in shipments by about 25% in the first quarter of 2015 Besides seasonal factors, brands will slow down shipments as a way to adjust their inventories in the retailers “The current price stability that TV panels enjoy does not mean it won’t be affected by off-season,” said Chiou, “and this month’s price rise is coming to an end” Prices will flatten as exceeding demands for panels sized 50 inches and below start to subside and the market reaches an equilibrium As for extra large-size TV panels, prices will continue to fall because the demands for extra large-size TVs have been relative weak and limited This price slide affects panels sized 60 and 65 inches, showing a fall of US$ 5~8 Panel manufacturers also seem to lower their quotes on 4K panels as a means to increase the level of market acceptance
Regarding monitor panels, WitsView projects the first quarter monitor set shipments to decline by 6% Monitor panels are unable to dispel signs of oversupply due to weakening demands and lack of marketable products The production capacity released by the Generation 6 line means that panels sized 195 and 215 inches will be the firsts to be affected by the price drop, ranging from US$ 07~08 for January Panels sized 27 inches and above will continue to drop their prices, at around US$ 1 Monitor panels of other sizes will have an average price fall ranging US$ 5~7
The sharply depreciated currencies of emerging markets such as Russia and Brazil is having a direct impact on the notebook market in these countries Brand names with large shares in these emerging markets will see a drastic decrease in shipments in the first quarter of 2015, possibly surpassing 20% This wave of currency depreciation adds another variable to the off-season price projections for display panels The mainstream 14 and 156-inch notebook panels have the most noticeable price drop in January, averaging around US$ 06 to US$ 07 Panels of other sizes also have their prices fallen at least by an average of US$ 05 One thing worth mentioning is that in addition to trading based on monthly prices, the number of contract-based negotiations on notebook panels has seen an increase in the recent months This trend indicates that the extent of the actual price decline may be more severe behind closed doors
2014/12/23
Few panel applications have been free from the consumer electronic markets cooler season effects, with notebook panels early price drop reflecting the seasonal transition Another major IT application monitor panels prices also slid, due to off-peak season effects TV panel has been the only application where prices have remained unaffected, with certain TV panel size prices even ascending
“Global panel glass input capacity is estimated to drop 5-7% in 1Q15 as panel manufacturers start to implement annual maintenance in different generation production fabs,” said Eric Chiou, Senior Research Director at WitsView, a research division of TrendForce Although, IT panel demands have markedly eased, there have been few fluctuations in TV panel demands However, frequent labor shortages during Chinese Lunar New Year is expected to further diminish panel production volume WitsView projects under the prerequisite of demand support and supply adjustments, the panel industry might show stronger than expected performance in 1Q15
TV panel price quotes inched up to US $1-3 in December, but IT panel prices remained low and face price decline pressure
“TV panel demands are not completely exempt from the low season effect,” said Chiou For Chinese TV brands, there have been signs of gradually easing panel procurement following the end of domestic and export market peak season However, the impact on TV panel prices was cushioned by manufacturers’ healthy panel inventory levels, minor order volume adjustments in December, and Korean TV brands unchanging strong procurement demands Besides steady market demand for 32” TVs, another trend observed has been large TV sizes benefiting from market demands including for 40”, 48” and 50” products, which all reported monthly price surge of US $1-3
On the other hand, monitor panels have been affected by imbalanced supply and demand “Due to notebook panels easing demands and TV panel adjustments for 55” and above sizes, some panel production capacity have been transferred to monitor panel production that has in turn raised pressure on monitor panel suppliers,” said Chiou Impact from low season adjustments on monitor demands have been evident, and can be observed among different panel sizes The 195W monitor panel, which soared the most over the last few months is under greatest pressure to slash prices Prices are estimated to drop US$ 05-07, while TV sizes below 24” are projected to reach US $05 Large monitors 27W and above are still preparing to enter the market with low pricing strategies, and expected to decline about US $1 in December 2014
Notebook panel prices have remained weak, and price falls have been aggravated in December as panel manufacturers are eager to clear out inventory The 156” notebook panel which consists nearly 50% of market sales is under the most pressure to lower prices WitsView projects price falls for 156” will be between US$ 06-08 Despite 14” sales share shrinking to 20-25%, the product has maintained its leading market position, and clients low price negotiations are still mainly targeting this product Prices for 14” notebooks fell in December to about US$05-07 Other niche size products including 116” and 133” price declines have been within the range of US $03-04
2014/11/21
The consumer electronics market has been go-go in November because of the many sales promotions this month, notably China’s Double 11 (November 11) shopping holiday, which earned NT 270 billion dollars in revenue With Black Friday (November 28) in Europe and America coming up at the end of the month, the market is hoping for another big boost While the holiday season will fuel price growth in the short run and LG and Samsung will continue to place large panel orders, prices are likely to hit a ceiling relatively soon, according to WitsView, a division of the Taiwan-based market intelligence firm TrendForce
Demand for Samsung TV panels produced by the company’s Samsung Visual Display division is resilient, said Eric Chiou, senior research director of WitsView But because Samsung, the leading TV panel brand, expended vast resources from its Samsung Display division on panels for Samsung Visual Display, it indirectly decreased panel supply to competitors, he added As a result, the 40W and 48W, the main sizes used for Samsung displays, jumped by US$3 The shortage of 48W panels prompted a number of vendors to stock up on the 50W, which also increased by US$2- US$3 By contrast, this month, the 32W only increased by US$1, reversing several months of steady increases
As the off-peak season approaches, it is not surprising to see signs of slowing panel demand, Chiou said, adding that manufacturers are hesitant to hold a large amount of inventory as a result Rivals Samsung and LG, meanwhile, are focusing on expanding market share “Because these two South Korean brands’ panel procurements are enormous, their demand is the main driver of price movements,” Chiou said
Regarding monitor panels, sizes that were recently in short supply including the 185W, 195W and 215W are now more readily available As a result, smaller OEMs are less likely to delay product delivery Since the outlook for the overall TV panel market is optimistic and monitor panels fall under the same product category, monitor prices are the same as last month But customers are starting to request lower prices on the larger-sized panels, including the 238W and 27W “As we enter the off-peak season, customers’ bargaining power will increase,” Chiou said
Suppliers, meanwhile, have been the focus in the notebook panel segment of late A strong push by BOE has ended industry domination by Taiwanese and Korean panel suppliers Additionally, tablet sales are flagging, which has caused manufacturers to devote more effort to notebook panel production Weakening tablet demand caused notebook panel prices to fall in October That was exacerbated in November by oversupply issues Since the 14W and 156W trade in large volumes, buyers requested volume discounts and prices fell US$05 to US$07 But the 133W and 173W, which are niche products that clients tend to customize, only decreased US$03 to US$05
2014/10/21
In the fourth quarter of 2014, price trends for the TV and notebook panel segments will diverge Despite lackluster sales during China’s week-long October National Day holiday, TV panel prices have continued to rise, but with notebook demand forecast to begin dropping off this month – it has been robust up to this point – and continue to fall throughout the fourth quarter, price growth in that segment will slow, according to WitsView, a subsidiary of the Taiwan-based market intelligence firm TrendForce
While the fourth quarter is the peak season for many consumer electronics, it is also the time when demand frequently weakens for components used in those products A modest drop in panel demand over the next few months is normal and indicative that the panel industry is healthy, said WitsView senior research director Eric Chiou However, it is uncertain how Korean TV brands will maintain panel procurement strength and changes in the utilization rate will affect the market, Chiou added
Although TV set shipments during the Chinese National Day holiday declined 2 percent on year, procurements were resilient “With the holiday season approaching in the US and Europe, vendors want to replenish their inventory,” Chiou said Meanwhile, with demand high and supply limited, 32W and 50W prices rose US $ 1 ~ 3 this month 40W and 48W prices continued to increase in price as well, rising $1 since last month 55W and above panel prices, meanwhile, fell about 1%
Since the fourth quarter is not the traditional peak season for the information technology industry, monitor panel demand is usually relatively weak at that time Price movements this month reflect that While prices for the 195W rose US $ 02 ~ 03, prices for other models such as the 185W or 215W remained unchanged At this point, demand for computer monitor panels is not the primary driver of price, Chious said, adding that TV panels and computer monitor panels are manufactured at the same factories, but because demand for TV panels is stronger, the factories are churning them out at the expense of computer monitor panels, which is causing computer monitor panel production capacity to fall That falling production capacity will ensure prices will remain at the same level
Notebook panel demand shipments peaked in the third quarter this year and are estimated to fall 8% on a quarterly basis in the fourth quarter, against an uncertain global economic backdrop Sales are expected to fall in Europe, China and other regions 14W models will be affected the most severely With prices falling on average this month US $ 03 ~ 04, WitsView believes they may be entering a sustained slowdown
2014/09/24
The global television panel market has been hot all year, and is expected to remain robust for the foreseeable future while the IT panel market is set to moderately cool in the fourth quarter and remain that way into 2015, according to WitsView, a subsidiary of the Taiwan-based global market intelligence TrendForce A number of factors are contributing to that change in market conditions, in particular production constraints caused by low yield rates on increasingly large TVs “IT panel prices rose steadily in the past three quarters, but we expect to see that taper off over the next few months,” said Eric Chiou, senior research director at WitsView
In the first half of the year, Chinese television display vendors only shipped 38-40% of their domestic quota for 2014 and so need to take advantage of promotions in the final quarter to boost sales But competition is fierce There are supply shortages for certain TV sizes because international manufacturers have kept up procurement orders Chinese vendors should push smaller-sized TV panels, including 32W, 395W and 40W to boost sales, Chiou said, adding that 48W, 49W and 55W are also important because the demand for larger size TVs is increasing These popular sizes have risen in price US$1-$3 on average this month
When TV display regional sales figures are announced at the end of October and November, the results will be mixed Manufacturers with fewer sales may alter their procurement strategies to reduce inventory and lower inventory value before issuing year-end financial statements As a result, sales of TV panels may gradually slow after October
The fourth quarter is not typically peak time for computer monitor sales But because there is a high degree of correlation between computer monitor and TV display sales, as long as demand for TV panels remains healthy, the impact of the non-peak season on the monitor market will be limited in the short term
Among computer monitors, the prices of 19W and 195W still rank highest OEM and suppliers have faced supply shortages for the two sizes, and average price quotes were up US$05-1 Prices for other sizes were about the same or increased incrementally by US$03
Notebook panel sales have gotten a boost from business orders and back-to-school demand, with consumer notebook models driving an expected 8% growth in shipments in the third quarter Still, with demand in Europe and China relatively weak, the outlook for the fourth quarter is not especially optimistic
Among notebook panels, demand for the 156W was relatively strong, but the previous month’s US$06-US$08 price increase fell to US$04-$05 The 14W’s price quotes went up slightly US$01-$02 Yet because of leaked price quotes, notebook panel prices will be volatile in October
