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Keyword：Jason Tsai，
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2015/11/18
The market for wearable devices (also known as wearables) has maintained a certain growth level in recent years, though device vendors have not experienced a boom in demand as they would hope The total wearable device shipments in 2015 are estimated at 681 million units, according to global market research firm TrendForce In 2016, annual wearable shipments are expected to grow 64% to above 112 million units This projected growth rate mainly reflects the short base period
“Apple Watch has not been able to significantly lift the overall demand for smartwatches,” said Jason Tsai, TrendForce wearable device analyst “Smart bracelet remains dominant in the wearables market The industry is betting on wearable virtual reality (VR) technologies to be the main growth driver for next year Hence, a lot of attention has been paid to several VR devices that are set to launch at the start of 2016”
Smart bracelets focus on functionality whereas smartwatches rely on brand names
Smartwatch vendors so far have only been able to leverage their brand names to sell their devices The market positioning of smartwatches is still unclear and provides too few reasons for consumers to buy them Apple Watch is currently the only smartwatch that has exceeded 10 million sets shipped this year Nonetheless, Tsai noted that sales of Apple Watch have fallen short of expectations since its launch over six months ago TrendForce therefore has lowered the projected annual shipments of Apple Watch for 2015 from 15 million to 12 million sets Next year’s annual shipments are expected to reach 20 million sets
“Smartwatches will become more appealing if vendors can aggressively market two or three device-specific features that consumers would find valuable,” Tsai pointed out “Apple, for instance, has successfully used its brand name to build an initial user base for its smartwatch The next step is to capture consumers who want value for their money, or else Apple’s smartwatches will remain only as collectibles for Apple fans”
Smart bracelets, on the other hand, have staked out a clear position in the wearables market as fitness and sleep trackers “Consumers buy them because of their functionality,” said Tsai “And this is why Fitbit, which is a lesser-known brand, is able to pull ahead of the pack of competing wearable vendors and beat several major brands in market share”
TrendForce estimates that annual smart bracelet shipments for 2016 will grow to 45 million units, greatly surpassing projected shipment figure of smartwatches for the same period, which will be around 32 million units
VR devices will drive the wearables market next year and become the focus of the industry
The shares of smartwatches and smart bracelets in the overall wearable market will unlikely change significantly in 2016 even if vendors such as Apple, Fitbit and Xiaomi are able ship tens of millions of their respective devices The next hot application segment in the wearables market will be VR devices Tsai noted that the annual shipments of smart headwear is set to hit 8 million units this year and will soar to 27 million units next year This explosive growth is heavily attributed to the rising demand for wearable VR technologies
At the start of next year, major vendors such as HTC, Oculus and Sony will launch their VR devices, which are expected to bring over US$60 billion in annual sales As this market rapidly emerges, it draws in powerful players in the tech industry For example, Samsung has already invested in FOVE, which develops VR devices that can track eye movements Chinese tech giant Tencent has also recently announced its own VR project TrendForce anticipates that the competition will become very heated next year with the entries of new participants and products
2015/08/04
The introduction of the Apple Watch did not create takeoff growth opportunities in the wearable device market Consequently, vendors are working on other attractive products, and virtual reality (VR) currently stands out among the wearable technologies that are under development Few VR devices have been shipped this year, but the latest data from Topology Research Institute (TRI), a division of TrendForce, estimates that the VR device shipment volume will soar to 14 million units in 2016
“VR hardware’s market positioning is clearer than smartwatches,” said Jason Tsai, TrendForce’s wearable device analyst “Since VR device’s strongest feature is providing users with an immersive audiovisual experience, its early application will be related to gaming”
Tsai also stated that the main part of a VR device’s draw is the abundance of audiovisual contents, and VR games cost less resources to produce than VR movies First-person games in particular can be ported to VR devices with some modifications The relatively low costs and minimal time requirement thus will be strong incentives for game developers as they will become major content providers for VR hardware
Tsai added that vendors could initially position VR devices as gaming accessories Though the gaming accessories market is not as large as other consumer electronics markets (ie mobile devices), it has a specific group of consumers Vendors will therefore be able to capture a stable user base early on Using the eight million first-year sales figures of Microsoft Kinect in 2010 as a base for comparison, TrendForce believes VR devices will enjoy better sales results in 2016 Besides attracting consumers with novel and immersive gaming experience, VR-based products are also being aggressively promoted by tech and entertainment giants, including Disney, HTC, NVIDIA, Oculus, Samsung and Sony
In the future, the VR industry will draw in more resources when all its participants have achieved concrete sales results and made profit These investments will lead to more diverse content services for VR hardware, and the industry by then will become hot as its growth gradually accelerates and its previously small market expands
2015/05/22
The supply of Apple Watch have not kept up with the strong demand since its preorder sale earlier this year According to the latest projection by Topology, a division of TrendForce, the 2015 shipments of Apple Watch are expected to reach 15 million sets On the other hand, going above this shipment figure will depend on the performance of the entire supply chain in the second half of 2015 “Apple is widely recognized for its success in selling its smartwatches as hardware,” said Jason Tsai, TrendForce’s wearable device analyst, “but the more important matter coming out this Apple Watch craze will be the profits generated from the watch’s application and services”
“The watch is a springboard from which Apple will change consumers’ behaviors and create new revenue sources,” Tsai added
As wearable devices become more accessible and influential in the daily lives of consumers, device vendors area not only able to deliver unique values to their products but also find opportunities from users’ behaviors Apple Watch, for instance, is great for travel as people can use it to board planes and unlock hotel rooms “Next to iPhone 6, Apple Watch is another device through which Apple Pay can be widely adopted,” Tsai also noted “Apple Watch will enjoy greater usage by consumers and attracts non-iPhone users if it makes Apple Pay more convenient” Apple’s competitors Xiaomi has also recently entered the mobile payment industry through wearable devices, and more device vendors are expected to follow their lead
Going forward, the contest among rival device vendors will not be mainly about having the best hardware Instead, vendors are betting on application as a way to gain footholds in different application markets Tsai pointed out that while mobile payment right now is a hot application for wearable devices, other profitable fields are emerging, such as market survey and risk assessment for insurance Products and services related to these opportunities will eventually displace specs as the center of contention
TrendForce, Taipei Computer Association, and TechNews proudly present Compuforum 2015 on June 5, during the week of Computex Taipei 2015, at the 4th floor VIP room of the Taipei International Convention Center This year seminar, titled “The Future of Mobile Devices: Key Components and Communication Technology”, will feature the latest industry research by top analysts from TrendForce’s research divisions – DRAMeXchange, WitsView, and Topology Honored guest speakers from global tech giants SanDisk, Qualcomm, ARM, Intel, and Broadcom will also be there to share their thoughts with the attendees on the latest trends and future development in mobile solutions Topics that will be discussed at the forum include chips, memory, display panel, wireless communication, and wearable devices
2015/03/11
Apple Watch has been revealed as scheduled and its price varies according to models, ranging from US$350 to around US$10,000 Though Apple does not offer anything revolutionarily function-wise, the company is confident that product designs and quality of materials alone will propel their smartwatches into the luxury market
Jason Tsai, a wearable analyst for Topology of TrendForce, stated that the launch of Apple Watch will have a huge impact on the traditional watch market because its target customers are people who usually do not wear a watch “Apple’s intention is very clear,” Tsai explained “The company wants to become a luxury brand that sells not just products and services, but also fashion and class”
Tsai added while there are some concerns with the device’s battery life, the shipments of Apple Watch in 2015 are expected to reach 12 million units According his initial projection, Apple will take over nearly half the share of the smartwatch market Selling at a high unit price also means that these smartwatches will bring billions of dollars to the consumer electronics giant
Having unique selections of facade materials are the key to Apple’s success Most smartwatches currently on the market have similar functions, so Apple must provide something additional and superior besides the basic values when setting a range of prices for each edition of the Apple Watch Every model of the Apple Watch offers more or less the same features and services, but they ultimately are differentiated in pricing and market positioning based on the quality of their materials – from aluminum, which is suited for sports, to luxurious 18-karat gold; as well as from durable fluoroelastomer to classy leather Other smartwatch makers will likely to imitate Apple’s strategy of creating different values for the same functions with distinct style of packing materials As a result, demands for materials used in watch casings will increase significantly Some of the resources that will be greatly sought after by the competing vendors include sapphire, which is used for watch covers; ceramic, which is used for back covers; and leather, which is used in watch straps
