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Press Releases
Consumer Terminals Market Reverses as Tide of Shortages Recedes, 2Q22 Output Value Growth at Top 10 Foundries Falls to 3.9% QoQ, Says TrendForce

2022/09/27

Semiconductors

According to TrendForce research, due to steady weakening of overall demand for consumer electronics, inventory pressure has increased among downstream distributors and brands Although there are still sporadic shortages of specific components, the curtain has officially fallen on a two-year wave of shortages in general, and brands have gradually suspended stocking in response to changes in market conditions However, stable demand for automotive and industrial equipment is key to supporting the ongoing growth of foundry output value At the same time, since the creation of a marginal amount of new capacity in 2Q22 led to growth in wafer shipments and a price hike for certain wafers, this drove output value among top ten foundries to reach US$3320 billion in 2Q22 Quarterly growth fell to 39% on a weakening consumer market A prelude to inventory correction was officially revealed in 3Q22 In addition to intensifying severity in the initial wave of order slashing for LDDI/TDDI, and TV SoC, diminishing order volume also extended to non-Apple smartphone APs and peripheral IC PMIC, CIS, and consumer electronics PMICs, and mid-to-low-end MCUs, posing a challenge for foundry capacity utilization However, the launch of the new iPhone in 3Q22 is expected to prop up a certain amount of stocking momentum for the sluggish market Therefore, top ten foundry revenue in 3Q22 is expected to maintain a growth trend driven by high-priced processes and quarterly growth rate is expected to be slightly higher than in 2Q22 With tide of inventory correction approaching, foundries furiously migrate production capacity to sectors of stable demand such as automotive and industrial equipment Benefiting from strong demand for HPC, IoT, and automotive stocking activities, TSMC posted 2Q22 revenue of US$1815 billion but quarterly growth rate contracted to 35% due to wafer mark ups inflating the 1Q22 revenue base period As Nvidia, AMD, Bitmain, and other HPC customers continue to ramp up their new products for more advanced nodes, 5/4nm revenue increased by approximately 111% QoQ, securing this node the best revenue performance in 2Q22 Although the 7/6nm market was uncertain given murky mid/low-end smartphones market conditions and client order revisions, the node maintained a backstop in the form of mainstream products originating from HPC customers Revenue generated by this node increased by 28% QoQ Samsung's 7/6nm production capacity has been gradually migrating to the 5/4nm process and yield rate has continued to improve, driving 2Q22 revenue to US$559 billion, a quarterly increase of 49% At the same time, the first 3GAE process using GAA architecture was officially mass-produced at the end of 2Q22 The first wave of customers includes PanSemi, a Chinese cryptocurrency mining company However, due to the complex 3nm production process, production will require two quarters Therefore, the 3nm node is not expected to contribute to revenue until the end of 2022, at the earliest UMC's new 28/22nm production capacity went online smoothly in 2Q22, driving the growth of overall wafer shipments and ASP This node's revenue share moved up to 22% this quarter while 2Q22 revenue reached US$245 billion, growing 81% QoQ, and the highest in the top ten GlobalFoundries benefited from the release of a small amount of new production capacity and long-term agreement (LTA) guarantees for most of its production capacity Revenue in 2Q22 reached US$199 billion, a quarterly increase of 27% It is worth noting, assisted by the recent US CHIPS Act, Qualcomm, a major American manufacturer, signed a new contract with GlobalFoundries to extend their LTA period to 2028 with a significant increase in agreed volume, mainly producing 5G RF transceivers and Wi-Fi7 in Malta Fab8 at the 14/12nm node, aimed at supporting the localized production of wafers in the US SMIC's 2Q22 revenue reached US$190 billion, up 33% QoQ, while its proportion of revenue in the smartphone sector fell to 254% The smart home sector maintains strong growth momentum and revenue from related application products such as Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, PMIC, and MCU peripheral IC for networking and smart control devices increased by approximately 234% QoQ Operating performance of second- and third-tier foundries peaked and utilization rate may decline in 2H22 The sixth to eighth positions are occupied by Hua Hong Group, PSMC, and VIS, respectively Except for PSMC, revenue posted by other operators was driven by factors such as increases in average selling price and production expansion, leading to marginal growth in 2Q22 revenue In terms of PSMC, foundry revenue in 2Q22 was US$656 million, down 14% QoQ Since consumer DDI and CIS were among the first wave of product orders revised by customers, this was reflected in the operating performance of each process platform while revenue from both HV and CIS processes declined PMIC increased by approximately 226% QoQ, reflecting that certain PMIC products retain stocking momentum and also demonstrating PSMC’s strategy of continuing to convert production lines to produce PMICs Nexchip studiously expanded its production capacity and technology platform process diversity, driving overall wafer shipment growth and contributing to revenue Revenue in 2Q22 was approximately US$463 million, up 45% QoQ At the same time, in addition to partnering with SmartSens to develop 90nm CIS and continuously increasing production volume, the company also partnered with MediaTek to develop 01Xµm smartphone PMIC, contributing to non-driver IC business revenue Tower has no short-term plans to significantly expand production and its revenue was mainly driven by ASP and product mix optimization Revenue in 2Q22 reached US$426 million, up 12% QoQ For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Intel Orders Delayed, TSMC Slows Three-Nanometer Expansion, Says TrendForce

2022/08/04

Semiconductors

According to TrendForce research, Intel plans to outsource the tGPU chipset in Meteor Lake to TSMC for manufacture Mass production of this product was initially planned for 2H22 but was later postponed to 1H23 due to product design and process verification issues Recently, the product’s mass production schedule has been postponed again to the end of 2023 for some reason, nigh completely cancelling 3nm production capacity originally booked in 2023 with only a marginal amount of wafer input remaining for engineering verification TrendForce indicates that this incident has greatly affected TSMC's production expansion plan, resulting in Apple being the one company among the first wave of 3nm process clients from 2H22 to the start 2023 with products including M series chips and A17 Bionic In view of this, TSMC has decided to slow the progress of its production expansion to ensure production capacity is not excessively idle, leading to massive cost amortization pressure In addition to formally notifying equipment suppliers of the company’s intention to adjust 2023 equipment orders, due to the high cost of 3nm expansion, TrendForce expects that this move will also affect some parts of TSMC’s 2023 CapEx planning As a result, the scale of TSMC’s CapEx in 2023 may be lower than in 2022 It is worth mentioning, although Intel has significantly adjusted its 2023 outsourcing plan, causing TSMC to postpone its 2023 expansion plans, looking at other advanced process clients including AMD, MediaTek, and Qualcomm, all of these companies successively plan to mass-produce 3nm products in 2024 At the same time, Apple's new 2024 iPhone is expected to fully adopt 3nm processors The introduction of the aforementioned clients will inject momentum into TSMC's 3nm capacity utilization and revenue performance in 2024 TrendForce believes, although TSMC has decided to curb its CapEx in 2023 due to the delay of Intel products, TSMC's annual revenue will still grow compared with 2022 but at a slower rate The reduction in CapEx can also relieve TSMC’s huge cost amortization pressure and reduce the degree of gross profit dilution in the early stage of 3nm mass production Looking forward to 2024, with new products from clients such as AMD, MediaTek, and Qualcomm in place, 3nm process output is expected to be on track, further promoting strong growth in TSMC's revenue scale However, the development status of Intel's own Intel 4 process and the accompanying outsourcing situation are still important potential growth drivers for TSMC If Intel 4 fails to mass-produce as scheduled, Intel may outsource its computing tiles to TSMC, strongly driving growth in 2024 However, if the Intel process develops smoothly, there remains the possibility of the company choosing to manufacture related products itself and canceling TSMC's orders For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Order Cancellations Strike, 8-inch Fab Capacity Utilization Rate Declines Most in 2H22, Says TrendForce

2022/07/07

Semiconductors

According to TrendForce investigations, foundries have seen a wave of order cancellations with the first of these revisions originating from large-size Driver IC and TDDI, which rely on mainstream 01Xμm and 55nm processes, respectively Although products such as MCU and PMIC were previously in short supply, foundries’ capacity utilization rate remained roughly at full capacity through their adjustment of product mix However, a recent wave cancellations have emerged for PMIC, CIS, and certain MCU and SoC orders Although still dominated by consumer applications, foundries are beginning to feel the strain of the copious order cancellations from customers and capacity utilization rate has officially declined Looking at trends in 2H22, TrendForce indicates, in addition to no relief from the sustained downgrade of driver IC demand, inventory adjustment has begun for smartphones, PCs, and TV-related peripheral components such as SoCs, CIS, and PMICs, and companies are beginning to curtail their wafer input plans with foundries This phenomenon of order cancellations is occurring simultaneously in 8-inch and 12-inch fabs at nodes including 01Xμm, 90/55nm, and 40/28nm Not even the advanced 7/6nm processes are immune Capacity utilization rate unbound, resources effectively allocated, material mismatch issues eased According to TrendForce research, the capacity utilization rate of eight-inch nodes (including 035-011μm) may decline the most Products utilizing these processes are primarily Driver IC, CIS, and Power-related chips (PMIC, Power discrete, etc) Among these products, Driver IC has been directly impacted by cooling demand for TVs and PCs, reflected by the most severe downward revision of wafer inputs At the same time, the supply of PMICs, which was still tight in 1H22, gradually achieved greater equilibrium after the redistribution of production capacity However, as demand continues to fall in 2H22, inventory adjustment has also begun for consumer PMICs and CISs Although there are still demand backstops for PMICs and power discrete originating from servers, automotive, and industrial applications, it is still difficult to make up the difference generated by driver IC, consumer PMICs and CISs order cancellations and the subsequent decline in the capacity utilization rate at some 8-inch fabs TrendForce believes that the overall capacity utilization rate of 8-inch fabs will be roughly 90~95% in 2H22, while some fabs manufacturing a greater proportion of consumer applications may have to fight an uphill battle to maintain production capacity at 90% The same situation has also occurred in mature 12-inch processes However, since 12-inch products are more diverse and their production cycle generally takes at least one quarter, coupled with upgrades to some product specifications, trends such as process transition have not been affected by broader short-term economic fluctuations As a result, overall production capacity utilization rate can still be maintained at a high operational watermark of approximately 95% Compared with operating rates that easily hit 100% in the past two years, production line operation has gradually normalized and stabilized, demonstrating a steady balancing of resource allocation In terms of advanced processes, these are utilized primarily to produce CPU, GPU, ASIC, 5G AP, FPGA, AI accelerator, etc Terminal applications remain dominated by smartphones and high-performance computing (HPC) Affected by the weak smartphone market, 5G APs have also experienced downward revisions of order volume but stocking momentum for HPC-related products remains stable Coupled with plans to announce a number of new products, TrendForce believes that 7/6nm capacity utilization rate will decline marginally to 95~99% in 2H22 due to product mix conversion, while 5/4nm processes will remain near full load, driven by several new products Looking forward to 2023, TrendForce believes, after nearly two and a half years of chip shortages, cooling of consumer product demand will ease the capacity utilization rate of wafer foundries in the short term and applications that were starved for chips in the past are now able to obtain a reallocation of resources The penetration rate of related applications such as 5G smartphones and electric vehicles has increased year by year while the stocking momentum of 5G base stations, infrastructure in various countries including automated security inspection measures, and server demand from cloud services will continue to support the capacity utilization rate of foundries at a level roughly above 90% However, some manufacturers that mainly produce consumer products may see capacity utilization rate fall below 90% At this time, foundries must rely on their own internal diversified planning and resource allocation of product applications to overcome the inflationary crisis of component inventory adjustments For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Material Shortages Impede Semiconductor Equipment Lead Time, Annual Growth Rate of Foundry Capacity to Narrow to 8% in 2023, Says TrendForce

2022/06/22

Semiconductors

According to TrendForce, semiconductor equipment is once again facing the dilemma of extended lead times up to 18-30 months Before this latest equipment lead time delay, the annual growth rate of 12-inch equivalent (including 12-inch and 8-inch) capacity supplied by global foundries in 2022 and 2023 was estimated to be 13% and 10%, respectively Current observations indicate that this delay of semiconductor equipment has a relatively marginal impact on expansion plans in 2022 with the bulk of repercussions arriving in 2023, affecting TSMC, UMC, PSMC, Vanguard, SMIC, and GlobalFoundries, and encompassing mature and advanced processes Overall expansion plans will be delayed for approximately 2 to 9 months with annual capacity growth expected to fall to 8% for the year TrendForce adds, the lead time of semiconductor equipment prior to the pandemic was approximately 3 to 6 months Since 2020, strict pandemic induced border controls implemented by countries worldwide have impeded logistics However, during the same period, IDMs and foundries benefited from strong terminal demand and actively expanded production Thus, lead times on semiconductor equipment were obliged to lengthen to 12-18 months Induced by the Russian-Ukrainian war, logistic gridlock, and insufficient production capacity of semiconductor industrial control chips, production of semiconductor equipment will begin feeling the impact of raw material and chip shortages by 2022 Excluding EUV lithography equipment with a fixed annual output, the lead time of remaining machinery will be extended to 18-30 months, among which the shortage of DUV lithography equipment is the most serious, followed by CVD/PVD deposition and etching It is worth mentioning that the Russian-Ukrainian war and rising inflation have affected the acquisition of various raw materials, as well as the continuing impact of the pandemic on manpower, both of which have led to delays in semiconductor fab construction This phenomenon and equipment delivery delays simultaneously affect each foundry’s expansion plans in 2023 and beyond However, since the beginning of this year, the boon of the stay-at-home economy has evaporated and the demand for consumer electronic products such as TVs, smartphones, and PCs has continued to weaken, resulting in high inventory held by terminal brands According to TrendForce investigations, foundries will still rely on product mix adjustment and the reallocation of resources to products still in short supply to maintain capacity utilization rates at close to 95% of full load From 2H22 to 2023, high inflationary pressure may continue to depress global consumer demand However, from the supply side, the process of wafer foundry expansion is affected by factors such as equipment delivery delays and plant construction delays These delays will cause the annual growth rate of global wafer foundry capacity to shrink to 8% in 2023 TrendForce believes a prolonged expansion process has eliminated some concerns regarding oversupply in 2023 brought about by the current market conditions categorized by weak consumer demand  Nevertheless, a shortage of some undersupplied materials may continue At this time, it is necessary to rely on the diversified planning of the wafer foundry for each terminal application and each product process to balance uneven distribution of mismatched material resources For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/   The Webinar, ”COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar: Diverse Market Opportunities Generated by Applications of Cyber-Physical Systems” will start from June 15, 2022 The TrendForce research team including Mark Liu, Caron Ju, Bryan Ao, and Alex Chen will present speeches regarding memory, servers, and datacenters, respectively 【Info】 When:Wednesday, June, 15 Where:COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar (Free to access)  

Press Releases
Localization of Chip Manufacturing Rising. Taiwan to Control 48% of Global Foundry Capacity in 2022, Says TrendForce

2022/04/25

Semiconductors

According to TrendForce, Taiwan is crucial to the global semiconductor supply chain, accounting for a 26% market share of semiconductor revenue in 2021, ranking second in the world Its IC design and packaging & testing industries also account for a 27% and 20% global market share, ranking second and first in the world, respectively Firmly in the pole position, Taiwan accounts for 64% of the foundry market In addition to TSMC possessing the most advanced process technology at this stage, foundries including UMC, Vanguard, and PSMC also have their own process advantages Under the looming shadow of chip shortages caused by the pandemic and geopolitical turmoil in the past two years, various governments have quickly awakened to the fact that localization of chip manufacturing is necessary to avoid being cut off from chip acquisition due to logistics difficulties or cross-border shipment bans Taiwanese companies have ridden this wave to become partners that governments around the world are eager to invite to set up factories in various locales Currently, 8-inch and 12-inch foundries are dominated by 24 fabs in Taiwan, followed by China, South Korea, and the United States Looking at new factories plans post 2021, Taiwan still accounts for the largest number of new fabs, including six new plants in progress, followed in activity by China and the United States, with plans for four and three new fabs, respectively Due to the advantages and uniqueness of Taiwanese fabs in terms of advanced processes and certain special processes, they accepted invitations to set up plants in various countries, unlike non-Taiwanese foundries who largely still build fabs locally Therefore, Taiwanese manufacturers have successively announced factory expansions at locations including the United States, China, Japan, and Singapore in addition to Taiwan in consideration of local client needs and technical cooperation The focus of Taiwan's key technologies and production expansion remains in Taiwan, accounting for 44% of global wafer production capacity by 2025 In 2022, Taiwan will account for approximately 48% of global 12-inch equivalent wafer foundry production capacity Only looking at 12-inch wafer production capacity with more than 50% market share, the market share of advanced processes below 16nm (inclusive) will be as high as 61% However, as Taiwanese manufacturers expand their production globally, TrendForce estimates that the market share held by Taiwan's local foundry capacity will drop slightly to 44% in 2025, of which the market share of 12-inch wafer capacity will fall to 47% and advanced manufacturing processes to approximately 58% However, Taiwanese foundries’ recent production expansion plans remain focused on Taiwan including TSMC's most advanced N3 and N2 nodes, while companies such as UMC, Vanguard, and PSMC retain several new factory projects in Hsinchu, Miaoli, and Tainan TrendForce believes, since Taiwanese foundries have announced plans to build fabs in China, the United States, Japan, and Singapore, and foundries in numerous countries are also actively expanding production, Taiwan's market share of foundry capacity will drop slightly in 2025 However, semiconductor enclaves do not come together quickly The integrity of a supply chain relies on the synergy among upstream (raw materials, equipment, and wafers), midstream (IP design services, IC design, manufacturing, and packaging and testing), and downstream (brands and distributors) sectors Taiwan has advantages in talent, geographical convenience and industrial enclaves Therefore, Taiwanese foundries still tend to focus on Taiwan for R&D and production expansion Looking at the existing blueprint for production expansion, Taiwan will still control 44% of the world's foundry capacity by 2025 and as much as 58% of the world's capacity for advanced processes, continuing its dominance of the global semiconductor industry For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

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