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2023/09/05
TrendForce reports an interesting shift in the electronics landscape: dwindling inventories for TV components, along with a surging mobile repair market that’s been driving TDDI demand, have sparked a smattering of urgent orders in the Q2 supply chain These last-minute orders have served as pivotal lifelines, propping up Q2 capacity utilization and revenue for semiconductor foundries However, the adrenaline rush from these stop-gap orders may be a short-lived phenomenon and is unlikely to be carried over into the third quarter
On the other hand, demand for staple consumer products like smartphones, PCs, and notebooks remains sluggish, perpetuating a slump in the use of expensive, cutting-edge manufacturing processes At the same time, traditionally stable sectors—automotive, industrial control, and servers—are undergoing inventory correction The confluence of these trends has resulted in a sustained contraction for the world’s top ten semiconductor foundries Their global revenue declined by approximately 11% for the quarter, amounting to a staggering US$262 billion
Additionally, the urgency in the supply chain seems largely fueled by demand for LDDI and TDDI components This demand surge has catapulted Nexchip—a key player closely aligned with the panel industry’s fortunes—back into the top ten rankings
Weak demand in advanced processes impacts TSMC’s Q2 revenue, a number of foundries expected to stabilize in Q3
In a season of fluctuating fortunes, TSMC—the titan of chipmaking—posted a Q2 revenue of US$1566 billion, managing to limit the quarterly downturn to a modest 64% While the revenue stream from 7/6 nm manufacturing processes flowed freely, the 5/4 nm sectors witnessed a contraction
However, hope is on the horizon as TSMC looks forward to a likely boost in 3Q23 With the iPhone’s latest production cycle as a strong tailwind, the semiconductor giant anticipates a surge in demand for related components Plus, the introduction of the costly yet revolutionary 3 nm process is set to make its financial debut, providing a much-needed jolt to offset the stagnation seen in mature processes As a result, TSMC’s Q3 revenue landscape appears not only poised to stabilize but also primed for a potential rebound
Samsung’s foundry business hit a high note in Q2 with an impressive revenue of US$323 billion—a robust QoQ leap of 173% However, the third quarter is likely to be affected by a sluggish economy, driving down demand for Android smartphones, PCs, and laptops As a result, the utilization rate for 8-inch fabs continues to decline While Samsung hopes for a silver lining courtesy of Apple’s new device inventory buildup, the uplift in revenue growth may be limited
Meanwhile, GlobalFoundries played it cool in Q2, virtually holding the line with a nominal revenue increase of 02% to around US$185 billion Revenue from sectors like smartphones and automotive showed growth, while the networking sector saw a contraction However, as Q3 begins taking shape amid economic turbulence, GlobalFoundries possesses the ability to stabilize itself in the form of long-term contracts in specialized niches—from US aerospace and defense to healthcare—as well as long-term agreements (LTAs) for automotive-related orders These contracts not only solidify GlobalFoundries’ foothold but also effectively underpin its capacity utilization rates Therefore, the company’s revenue is projected to maintain its equilibrium in the third quarter
UMC saw a windfall in Q2, riding high on emergency orders for TV and Wi-Fi SoCs This boost pushed their Q2 revenue to a tidy US$183 billion—a solid 28% bump QoQ However, a glance into Q3 reveals an economic landscape that looks less than rosy Consumer spending is showing no signs of a significant recovery, and those previous emergency orders are starting to dry up, leading to a decline in both capacity utilization and revenue
Meanwhile, SMIC is embracing its own set of challenges and opportunities The company reported a 67% QoQ revenue surge in Q2, landing at US$156 billion It’s a ‘tale of two wafers,’ though; while its 8-inch wafer revenue took a downturn, 12-inch chips surged by approximately 9% QoQ The spotlight here is on the ‘Made in China’ pivot—SMIC’s robust revenue growth is primarily fueled by domestic substitutions in specialized chips, ranging from Driver ICs (AMOLED DDI, TDDI) and NOR Flash to MCUs Although 2023 may not promise a peak season, SMIC’s shipments and capacity utilization are poised to continue improving, driving revenue growth in the third quarter
The second quarter saw a striking change among the foundries ranked sixth to tenth, with Nexchip making a triumphant return to the number ten spot Meanwhile, the rest of the lineup held their ground HuaHong Group, Tower Semiconductor, and PSMC mostly stayed the course, with Q2 revenues remaining largely static or experiencing a slight downturn compared to the previous quarter Predictions suggest that Q3 will tread the same financial path as Q2
The quarter had its share of drama with an unexpected surge of emergency orders, mostly originating from the display sector This windfall particularly benefitted niche players like VIS and Nexchip Fueled by last-minute LDDI orders, VIS saw a stellar revenue uptick of 191% QoQ, rocketing to US$321 million This rise wasn’t confined to one product; both small and large-size DDIs, as well as PMIC sectors, saw commendable revenue hikes However, end-user demand has yet to fully recover While Q3 operations are expected to show some growth, the momentum is likely to be restrained
In a staggering comeback, Nexchip’s second-quarter revenue soared by an eye-popping 654% QoQ, reaching a remarkable US$268 million and eclipsing DB Hitek to retake its seat at the tenth spot This stratospheric leap was fueled by a confluence of factors: a surge in last-minute restocking orders for LDDI and TDDI components, and the successful roll-out of high-margin products using the higher-priced 55 nm process These drivers jacked up Nexchip’s capacity utilization rate to an impressive 60–65%, catalyzing an exhilarating sprint in revenue growth
While the consumer electronic market has yet to rebound fully, Nexchip is not sitting idle The company is projected to sustain its upward trajectory in both capacity utilization and revenue as it marches into Q3 This optimism hinges on China’s growing trend of domestic substitution, amplified by Nexchip’s relentless marketing blitz Adding to this momentum is the advent of mass production for new offerings from CIS clients in 2H23 As these elements synergize, Nexchip’s Q3 promises not just growth, but another potentially dazzling performance
Looking ahead to the third quarter, the seasonal demand for the latter half of the year is projected to be softer than in previous years Anticipated orders for premium mainstream chips—such as Application Processors (AP) and modems—as well as peripheral ICs are set to bolster the capacity utilization metrics for partners in Apple’s intricate supply chain Further turbocharging this landscape is an uptick in orders of high-end HPC AI chips, adding a burst of momentum to high-value manufacturing processes TrendForce predicts that the revenue of the top ten global semiconductor foundries is likely to rebound from its lowest point in the third quarter, followed by gradual growth thereafter
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/07/05
On June 30th, the Netherlands introduced new export restrictions on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment Despite facing export controls from the US, Japan, and the Netherlands, TrendForce anticipates the market share of Chinese foundries in terms of 12-inch wafer production capacity will likely increase from 24% in 2022 to an estimated 26% in 2026 Moreover, if the exports of 40/28nm equipment eventually receive approval, there’s a chance that this market share could expand even further, possibly reaching 28% by 2026 This growth potential should not be dismissed
Several manufacturing processes including photolithography, deposition, and epitaxy will be subject to these recent export restrictions Beginning September 1st, the export of all controlled items will require formal authorization TrendForce reports that Chinese foundries have been primarily developing mature processes like 55nm, 40nm, and 28nm Furthermore, demand for deposition equipment can be largely met by local Chinese vendors, meaning concerns regarding expansion and development are minimal The main limiting factor, however, remains the equipment used in photolithography
TrendForce research indicates that businesses to be impacted first include SMIC’s Beijing and Shanghai fabs, as well as Nexchip’s A3/A4 fabs in Hefei TrendForce assesses that Nexchip’s Hefei fabs may experience far less disruption, as their short-term production focus remains on more mature processes Conversely, SMIC’s Beijing and Shanghai fabs may be forced to delay their expansion plans, pending permission for their equipment vendors to proceed with shipments
The US Export Administration Regulations (EAR) is primarily aimed at limiting China’s growth in advanced process, rather than mature ones Although export regulations from the US, Japan, and the Netherlands cover equipment used across both mature and advanced process generations, it’s namely equipment used in 45nm to more advanced processes which will require inspection However, mainstream equipment for mature processes ranging from 45–28nm could potentially still require export authorization as well Even though Chinese foundries will likely face a lengthy equipment review process, forcing them to delay their expansion plans for 40nm and 28nm processes, their ambitious positioning in the 28nm market ensures their development pace remains strong
It’s worth noting that, while advanced processes such as 1Xnm are currently not the primary focus of Chinese foundries, China’s potential for further development in this area is anticipated to face increased obstacles with the enforcement of more comprehensive export regulations
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/06/12
TrendForce reports that the global top 10 foundries witnessed a significant 186% QoQ decline in revenue during the first quarter of 2023 This decline—amounting to approximately US$273 billion—can be attributed to sustained weak end-market demand and the compounded effects of the off-peak season The rankings also underwent notable changes, with GlobalFoundries surpassing UMC to secure the third position, and Tower Semiconductor surpassing PSMC and VIS to claim the seventh spot
Declining capacity utilization rate and shipment volume contribute to widened revenue decline
The revenue decline in Q1 was primarily influenced by declining capacity utilization rates and shipment volume across the top 10 foundries For instance, TSMC generated US$1674 billion in revenue—marking a 162% QoQ drop in revenue Weakened demand for mainstream applications such as laptops and smartphones led to a significant decline in the utilization rates and revenue of the 7/6 nm and 5/4 nm processes, falling over 20% and 17%, respectively While the second quarter may see temporary relief coming from rush orders, the persistently low capacity utilization rate indicates that revenue is likely to continue declining, albeit at a slower pace compared to Q1
Samsung witnessed a decline in both 8-inch and 12-inch wafer capacity utilization rates, leading to a staggering 361% Q1 revenue decline— the highest among industry players in the first quarter—down to US$345 billion While there are sporadic orders for certain components in Q2, it is important to note that most of these orders are driven by short-term inventory replenishment rather than a strong signal of improved end-market demand However, the introduction of new 3 nm products is expected to contribute to revenue in Q2, which will likely alleviate the rate of decline GlobalFoundries reported Q1 revenue of US$184 billion, down 124% QoQ Since the market turnaround in the second half of last year, Global Foundries has maintained stable operations due to strong demand from various sectors such as automotive, defense, industrial equipment, and government applications in the US This consistent performance has allowed GlobalFoundries to surpass UMC and secure the third position in terms of revenue in Q1 Looking ahead to Q2, the company is expected to benefit from stable orders in industrial IoT, aerospace and defense, and automotive sectors, supporting capacity utilization and resulting in revenue levels similar to those in the first quarter
UMC reported a Q1 revenue decline of 176%, amounting to approximately US$178 billion in the first quarter This decline was particularly notable for 28/22 nm and 40 nm processes, both decreasing by at least 20% The company’s capacity utilization rate for 8-inch wafers is projected to fall below 60% in 2Q23 due to a reduction in customer orders for PMIC and MCU However, its 12-inch capacity utilization rate will benefit from urgent orders for 28/22 nm products such as Tcon and TV SoC—resulting in an estimated 80% utilization rate UMC’s revenue is expected to remain steady or experience a slight increase next quarter given the stable ASP SMIC posted US$146 billion in first-quarter revenue—a 98% QoQ revenue decline Revenue from 8-inch wafers fell nearly 30%, while revenue from 12-inch wafers saw a slight increase of 1–2% due to a diverse product portfolio and support from domestic demand in China SMIC is expected to benefit from the recovery of orders for particular products such as Driver IC and Nor Flash and will continue to reap the benefits of Chinese demand Both shipment volume and capacity utilization rate are anticipated to improve, resulting in revenue growth
Weak consumer product demand hits PSMC and VIS revenue hard
The foundry industry has been following a downward trend since the second half of 2022 Second and third-tier foundries, constrained by process technology limitations and high product overlap, face intense competition and lack bargaining power As a result, their operating performance is more volatile in a declining market In Q1, the most notable change from 6th place to 10th place rankings was Tower Semiconductor’s ascent to seventh place The company, supported by demand from the European market, only experienced a relatively modest—in comparison to many other second and third-tier foundries—a quarterly drop of 117% (down to approximately US$360 million)
PSMC benefited from the replenishment of television-related LDDI inventory and experienced a 26% increase in revenue in its HV processes Nevertheless, its other platform products such as PMIC and Power discrete continue to undergo inventory adjustments, and customer willingness to place orders remain cautious The company’s Q1 revenue reached approximately $332 million, representing a quarterly decline of 187% Similarly, VIS witnessed a recovery in wafer orders from both large and small-sized DDI customers as inventory levels approached healthy levels However, PMIC wafer orders remained weak VIS recorded a Q1 revenue of approximately US$269 million, reflecting an 118% quarterly decline Other companies, including HuaHong Group, reported a Q1 revenue of around $845 million—down 42% compared to the previous quarter DB Hitek’s revenue stood at US$234 million, experiencing a 20% QoQ decline
TrendForce expects a continued decline in revenue for the top 10 foundries in Q2, although at a slower rate than in the first quarter While supply chains are expected to gradually build inventory in response to peak season demand in the second half of the year, the accumulation of inventory and slow consumption have currently dampened customer attitudes toward stockpiling Consequently, the overall production cycle of foundries in Q2 is expected to be more relaxed, with limited growth in capacity utilization rates Only sporadic rush orders for products such as TV SoC, WiFi 6/6E, and TDDI are expected to drive any notable increase in utilization rates
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/04/14
TrendForce reports that the US Department of Commerce recently released details regarding its CHIPS and Science Act, which stipulates that beneficiaries of the act will be restricted in their investment activities—for more advanced and mature processes—in China, North Korea, Iran, and Russia for the next ten years The scope of restrictions in this updated legislation will be far more extensive than the previous export ban, further reducing the willingness of multinational semiconductor companies to invest in China for the next decade
CHIPS Act will mainly impact TSMC; and as the decoupling of the supply chain continues, VIS and PSMC capture orders rerouted from Chinese foundries
In recent years, the US has banned semiconductor exports and passed the CHIPS Act, all to ensure supply chains decoupling from China Initially, bans on exports were primarily focused on non-planar transistor architecture (16/14nm and more advanced processes) However, Japan and the Netherlands have also announced that they intend to join the sanctions, which means key DUV immersion systems, used for producing both sub-16nm and 40/28nm mature processes, are likely to be included within the scope of the ban as well These developments, in conjunction with the CHIPS Act, mean that the expansion of both Chinese foundries and multinational foundries in China will be suppressed to varying degrees—regardless of whether they are advanced or mature processes
TrendForce points out that since 1H23, there is a trend occurring where IC design companies are shifting existing and new orders to Taiwanese foundries under pressure from clients as well as their own need to minimize risks Tier-2 and -3 companies such as VIS and PSMC, which mainly focus on mature processes, have benefited greatly TrendForce believes that this shift in orders will undoubtedly ensure major recovery for foundries currently impacted by inventory adjustment and low capacity utilization rates, especially from 2H23 until 2024
TrendForce points that TSMC has been the most affected by this updated legislation, mostly due to their plans to expand into both China and the US TSMC’s current expansion into China, which began in 2022, has been focused on 28nm processes at Fab 16 The company has been continuously moving expansion-related equipment into China, and in October 2022, it obtained a one-year import permit The expansion is scheduled to be completed by mid-2023 However, based on the new CHIPS Act, TSMC’s further expansions for 16/12nm and 28/22nm processes at Fab 16 are limited for the next decade upon receiving the US subsidies Furthermore, 85% of the output must meet local market demand in China US export regulations require multinational foundries to apply for equipment import permits, which will reduce TSMC’s willingness to continue investing in China
Plans to expand memory production will focus on South Korea and the US, and China’s share of global DRAM capacity will decline YoY
The new CHIPS Act mainly applies to processes more advanced than 18nm, which is equivalent to 1Xnm for major suppliers However, mainstream DRAM processes have already been upgraded to above 1Znm, and customers are gradually transitioning under encouragement from suppliers; only a small portion of consumer DRAM products continue to remain below 1Xnm However, consumer DRAM products only account for 8% of total capacity SK hynix is the only major supplier to have a fab in Wuxi, China, but factors such as oversupply and geopolitics have caused DRAM output at the Wuxi fab to drop four percentage points from 48% to 44%, and their new fab is set to be located in South Korea Meanwhile, Samsung and Micron have no DRAM capacity in China and their plans for future expansion will focus on South Korea and the US, respectively TrendForce estimates, based on the plans of these three suppliers, that South Korea’s share of global DRAM capacity will continue to rise while China’s will decline YoY, dropping from 14% to 12% by 2025
When it comes to the supply of NAND Flash, the US has stated that restrictions on expansion mainly apply to processes with fewer than 128 layers Samsung’s Xi’an fab continues to focus on 128-layer processes and accounts for approximately 17% of global NAND Flash capacity; the Intel fab in Dalian, which was acquired by SK hynix, accounts for 9% of global NAND Flash capacity However, Samsung and SK Hynix are unlikely to expand their old production lines as 128-layer products will clearly be unable to compete with more advanced ones The plans involving upgrading process technology and raising production capacity at manufacturing operations in China will be severely limited All in all, China’s share of global NAND Flash capacity is expected to drop from 31% to 18% by 2025
Demand for DRAM and NAND Flash are in the same boat; many US companies have begun restricting production regions for memory and storage products or are requiring foundries to move their production facilities out of China to avoid geopolitical conflicts TrendForce predicts the formation of two distinctive production regions: Chinese factories that primarily focus on meeting domestic demand, and factories outside China that will serve other markets
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/03/13
According to TrendForce’s latest survey of the global foundry market, electronics brands began adjusting their inventories in 2Q22, but foundries were unable to rapidly adapt to this development because they reside in the more upper portion of the supply chain Moreover, revising procurement quantities of long-term foundry contracts takes time as well Hence, only some tier-2 and -3 foundries were able to immediately respond to the changes in their clients’ demand Also, among them, 8-inch wafer foundries made a more pronounced reduction in their capacity utilization rates As for the remaining foundries, the downward corrections that they made to their capacity utilization rates did not become noticeable until 4Q22 Hence, in 4Q22, the quarterly total revenue of the global top 10 foundries registered a QoQ decline for the first time after 13 consecutive quarters of positive growth The quarterly total revenue of the top 10 foundries came to US$33,530 million, reflecting a drop of 47% from 3Q22 Moving into 1Q23, TrendForce projects that the quarterly total revenue of the top 10 will show an even steeper drop on account of seasonality and the uncertain macroeconomic situation
Although TSMC and GlobalFoundries Actually Managed to Raise Revenue Market Share in 4Q22, Top Five Foundries All Inevitably Faced Massive Reduction in Orders
In 4Q22, foundries’ revenues were affected by an underwhelming peak season and their customers’ inventory corrections Even with stock-up activities related to new iPhones and Android smartphones, TSMC still posted a QoQ drop of 10% in revenue to reach US$19,962 million However, TSMC’s revenue market share climbed to almost 60% mainly because tier-2 and -3 foundries took a heavier hit with respect to customers’ inventory corrections Competitors’ weaker performances thus allowed TSMC to gain market share Regarding the revenues from TSMC’s process technologies, the decline in the revenues from the 7/6nm nodes was mostly offset by the rise in the revenues from the 5/4nm nodes The share of the ≤7nm nodes in TSMC’s overall revenue remained stable at 54%
Turning to Samsung, it experienced a drop in orders for advanced processes and a general demand contraction as its customers were concentrating on inventory reduction However, the demand drop associated with these factors was marginally offset by stock-up activities related to the components for the new iPhones and Android smartphones All in all, Samsung posted a QoQ drop of 35% in foundry revenue to reach US$5,391 million for 4Q22 TrendForce also points out that Samsung has lost a significant amount of demand for its ≤7nm nodes as Qualcomm and NVIDIA made the decision to reallocate orders for chips used in flagship hardware products Currently, there are no new major customers that can effectively address the idling production capacity caused by the order reallocation Therefore, the utilization rates of Samsung’s advanced processes are projected to remain at a low level of around 60% through 2023 In sum, Samsung lacks the momentum to achieve a positive YoY revenue growth for this year
Regarding other the major foundries, UMC saw a drop in both capacity utilization rate and wafer shipments in 4Q22, so its revenue fell by 127% QoQ to US$2,165 million In the aspect of wafer size and process technology, UMC saw a QoQ revenue decline for both 12- and 8-inch wafer foundry services, and its 035/025μm nodes had the worse revenue performance with a QoQ decline coming to 47% Conversely, in the case of GlobalFoundries, its revenue actually rose by 13% QoQ to US$2,101 million thanks to the optimization in its ASP and product mixes, as well as an increase in revenue from its non-wafer business GlobalFoundries was the only one among the top 10 to record a positive QoQ growth, and its revenue market share also climbed to 62% Turning to SMIC, it also saw a drop in both wafer shipments and wafer ASP As a result, its revenue slid by 150% QoQ to US$1,621 million Looking at SMIC’s revenue by application or production category, the sharpest drops were experienced by chips related to smart home and consumer electronics To get its customers to raise wafer input, SMIC has been offering price concessions However, this aggressive pricing strategy has not been particularly effective as customers are concerned about the risks associated with the US-China trade dispute Therefore, SMIC’s capacity utilization rate and revenue are expected to shrink further in 1Q23
Downturn of Display Panel Industry Led to Significant Revenue Drop for VIS and Nexchip, and the Latter Exited Top 10 Group
TrendForce notes that the extent of the impact from order cuts varied for individual foundries in 4Q22 Consequently, there were two notable changes in the quarterly revenue ranking from sixth to 10th place First, Nexchip fell out of the top 10 group and will unlikely return in the short term DB Hitek filled in the 10th place vacated by Nexchip in 4Q22 However, its capacity utilization rate dropped to 80-85% due to the recent market downturn DB Hitek posted a QoQ drop of around 124% in revenue to reach US$292 million Second, Tower, which was in ninth place in the 3Q22 ranking, benefited from the stable demand for chips based on specialty process technologies and a relatively steady flow of orders from European clients during 4Q22 Tower posted a marginal QoQ decline of 56% in revenue to reach US$403 million, and this result enabled it to surpass VIS to take eighth place in the 4Q22 ranking Conversely, VIS was impacted by the downturn of the display panel industry and the slumping demand for consumer electronics in 4Q22 With a QoQ decline of around 30% in wafer shipments, VIS also recorded a QoQ drop of 303% in revenue to reach US$305 million Because of this performance, VIS slipped to ninth place in the ranking
HuaHong Group benefited from the domestic demand for its specialty processes in 4Q22, but the same period also saw strong market headwinds that weakened the demand for logic ICs All in all, HuaHong’s overall revenue for the quarter fell by 265% QoQ to US$882 million Before this drop, HuaHong had maintained positive QoQ revenue growth for two straight years Lastly, looking at PSMC’s performance in 4Q22, capacity utilization rate slid significantly for both 8- and 12-inch wafer foundry Consequently, PSMC posted a QoQ decline of 273% in foundry revenue to reach US$408 million With this result, PSMC has recorded QoQ revenue drop for three consecutive quarters Its revenue market share also shrank to just 12% in 4Q22
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
