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keyword:Mia Huang8 result(s)

Press Releases
Projected iPhone Shipments for 4Q22 Has Been Lowered by 2~3 Million Units as Foxconn’s Base in Zhengzhou Temporarily Keeps Capacity Utilization Rate Around 70%, Says TrendForce

2022/11/02

Consumer Electronics

Zhengzhou, the capital China’s Henan Province, was hit with a wave of COVID-19 outbreaks in the middle of October The spread of the disease eventually reached Foxconn’s manufacturing base, where the number of infections rose significantly in late October This event has thus directly affected the performances of the iPhone production lines that are deployed within the base In its latest investigation of this event, TrendForce finds that the capacity utilization rates of the iPhone production lines have climbed back to around 70% as the local outbreaks are being gradually brought under control However, returning their capacity utilization rates to the normal level will still be difficult in the short term The Zhengzhou base is Foxconn’s main production hub for the iPhone Pro and Pro Max models Furthermore, the flow of orders for the Pro series is now at its peak Hence, iPhone shipments will be lower than expected for 4Q22 Originally, the fourth-quarter iPhone shipment target was set at 80 million units Due to the drop in the capacity utilization rates of the production lines in Zhengzhou, the quarterly total iPhone shipments is now projected to drop by 2~3 million units As for this year’s total iPhone shipments, they are now targeted around 237 million units Due to Impact of China’s Dynamic Zero-COVID Policy, iPhone Shipments for 1Q23 Could Undergo Another Downward Correction Looking ahead to 1Q23, the economic outlook for the period is already quite pessimistic Moreover, the winter season is generally conducive to the spread of diseases such as COVID-19 Hence, there is a possibility that China could enact zero-COVID lockdowns at a more frequent pace in the future Such scenario would extend the effects of this policy to the demand side and disrupt Apple’s iPhone production plan for that quarter TrendForce’s research finds that China’s domestic demand accounts for around 20% of the overall iPhone sales Assuming that the future performance of the global economy is not particularly positive, the effects of China’s ongoing “Dynamic Zero-COVID Policy” on the supply and demand sides will likely cause a downward correction to the quarterly iPhone shipment target Currently, iPhone shipments are forecasted to reach 52 million units for 1Q23 However, TrendForce is not ruling out a downward correction of 4~6 million units Furthermore, the YoY decline in iPhone shipments for 1Q23 could be widened further to more than 20% TrendForce’s investigation also indicates that Foxconn’s production of the Pro and Pro Max models will continue to exclusively take pace at the Zhengzhou base in the short term However, Apple is planning to spread the production-related risks for the iPhone Pro series by diverting orders to Luxshare and Pegatron Luxshare is expected to first benefit from the subsequent order transfer, and shipments of the iPhones made at its production lines may start as early as 1Q23 Even though the demand for iPhones will be much weaker during that period, spreading out orders will help Apple in its plan to take on other EMS providers for the next iPhone Pro series and lower the risk of relying too much on one production site to manufacture certain device models For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
iPhone 14 Pro Sales Favorable Yet Cannot Vanquish Rising Inflation, Apple Cuts 1Q23 Production to 52 Million Units, Says TrendForce

2022/10/25

Consumer Electronics

Looking at Apple's 2022 sales, the company began adjusting the proportion of new products after the initial wave of pre-orders The market response after the release of the iPhone 14 Plus was lukewarm, escalating Apple's product adjustment process The iPhone 14 Pro series boasts improved specifications yet unit prices are the same as last year's models, making pre-orders for the Pro series highly popular In the past, the Pro series was the first choice for the earliest wave of users In addition, the delayed launch of the 14 Plus this year has led to more concentrated buying than in previous years TrendForce indicates that the production ratio of the two models of the iPhone 14 Pro series has been increased from the initially planned 50% to 60% and it cannot be ruled out that this ratio will continue rising to 65% in the future At present, the overall proportion of new iPhone models in Apple's shipments will remain at 36% and the company’s 2022 iPhone shipment target is 240 million units, an annual increase of 28% TrendForce points out, while the US continues to raise interest rates to curb inflation, undercutting disposable consumer income, Apple's production performance will feel these effects in 1Q23 Production is expected to be lowered to 52 million units from an earlier estimate of 56 million units, a 14% decline YoY As geopolitical pressure rises, large smartphone brands accelerate migration of production lines out of China Recently, the US Department of Commerce increased sanctions on Chinese chips and export of semiconductor equipment Although there are no restrictions on smartphone production centers, as friction between China and the United States intensifies, smartphone brands that focus on the North American market are bound to strike a balance between sales and product origin According to TrendForce investigations, since Apple has a leading 50% share of the US market and has also built India into a production center in recent years, it is estimated that Apple’s proportion of Indian production is expected to exceed 5% in 2023 and increase year by year Specifications of new high-end iPhone models to see greater differentiation in 2023 Looking forward to the iPhone 15 series, TrendForce indicates that Apple will maintain a four new model release schedule featuring two processors to further differentiate between standard and high-end models In terms of specifications, in addition to the comprehensive switch from lightning to Type C connectors which is already known, chances are high that the Pro series will feature a memory capacity upgrade to 8GB to match its new processor and continue camera specifications improvements including upgrading its main camera to 8P and the use a periscope lens in the Pro Max model As for Apple's in-house 5G modem, the company will continue using a Qualcomm model because its mmWave signal test results cannot meet Apple’s requirements The company’s self-developed 5G modem is expected to be officially introduced in 2024 For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
2Q22 Global Smartphone Production Only 292 Million Units, Down 6% QoQ on China’s Pandemic Policies, Says TrendForce

2022/08/31

Consumer Electronics

According to TrendForce investigations, 2H22 smartphone production planning was quite conservative as brands gave priority to adjusting distribution channel inventory At the same time, weak market demand worsened on the back of China's pandemic controls and brands were forced to lower their production targets As a whole, production volume dropped 6% in Q2, even though volume had always grown in previous second quarters Global output was only roughly 292 million units, a 5% annual decline compared with the production performance in the same period in 2021 when a second wave of pandemic outbreaks occurred in South Asia and Southeast Asia As the primary vendor in Europe, Samsung was forced to carry out a series of inventory adjustments for finished products and components including large-scale promotions and suspension of component procurement due to the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war Thus, production volume in 2Q22 was significantly reduced by 163% QoQ to 618 million units Looking to the third quarter, Samsung is still focusing on the adjustment of distribution channel inventory and, as the outlook remains conservative, total production in 3Q22 is estimated to remain flat or trend upward marginally compared to 2Q22 It is worth noting that in recent years, due to Samsung's aggressive investment in the research and development and marketing of folding devices, the company has successfully maintained the popularity of these devices, and has also become the market leader in this segment Samsung will account for nearly 90% of the 11% 2022 global smartphone market share held by folding devices The second quarter is a transition period for Apple as it hands off old models for new and is nominally the quarter with the lowest production performance during the year Initial operational performance was affected in the second quarter by the implementation of lockdowns in Shanghai and Kunshan which hobbled supply chain supply The output shortfall created during the lockdown period was made up with production capacity adjustment after the lockdowns were lifted Apple still produced 482 million units in 2Q22, ranking second in the world Looking to the third quarter, the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max are among four new models to be upgraded to the A16 (TSMC 4nm) processor Upgrades such as initial starting memory capacity increasing to LPDDR5 6GB and 256GB, primary camera moving up to 48 million, Face ID Design changes, etc, are expected to raise starting prices However, under pressure from rising global inflation and foreign exchange rates, Apple is expected to adopt a more cautious pricing strategy so as not to affect its sales performance OPPO (including Realme, OnePlus) produced 388 million units, down 42% QoQ Xiaomi (including Redmi, POCO, Black Shark) produced 38 million units in 2Q22, down 146% QoQ Since Vivo (including iQoo) began to adjust its pace of production significantly in 1Q22, it rebounded to 257 million units in 2Q22, up 127% QoQ The three aforementioned brands are ranked third to fifth, respectively These three brands overlap significantly in sales market and product planning In 2Q22, China’s lockdowns and extreme weather in the Indian market affected economic performance, resulting in sluggish sales in these two major markets, which in turn affected production performance in 2Q22 Furthermore, the rapid rise of Honor in the Chinese market poses a considerable threat to the market share of brands such as OPPO, Xiaomi, and Vivo Honor’s market share in China is estimated to surpass Xiaomi and approach OPPO and Vivo in 2022 Looking to the third quarter, China’s economy, the primary market of OPPO, Xiaomi, and Vivo, is expected to remain weak Originally upbeat emerging markets such as India and Indonesia have also found it difficult to maintain growth due to global inflation, food crises, and extreme weather Considering the numerous negative market factors and the fact that distribution channel inventory is still to be digested, TrendForce believes that the production volume of the three aforementioned brands will be roughly in line with 2Q22, while all showing a sharp decline of more than 10% compared with the same period last year, which is enough to herald worrying performance in peak season during 2H22 On the whole, the Chinese market, one of the world’s three major markets, has reached a high degree of saturation and demand growth has slowed In the future, the focus of China’s three major smartphone brands will remain on expanding overseas markets For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Historically Low 2023 DRAM Demand Bit Growth at Only 8.3%, NAND Flash Expected to Drive Installed Capacity Growth Due to Falling Prices, Says TrendForce

2022/08/03

Semiconductors

According to TrendForce, DRAM market demand bit growth will only amount to 83% in 2023, sub-10% for the first time in history, and far lower than supply-side bit growth of approximately 141% Data indicates the DRAM market to be severely oversupplied at least in 2023 and prices may continue to decline NAND Flash is still in a state of oversupply and, although prices are expected to fall in the first half of next year, NAND Flash has built-in price elasticity compared to DRAM and average prices are expected to stimulate density growth in the enterprise SSD market after declining for several consecutive quarters Demand bits are expected to grow by 289%, while supply bits will grow by approximately 321% From the perspective of various applications, rising inflation continues to impact demand in consumer markets, so the primary goal of memory brands has been to prioritize inventory correction Especially in the past two years, a shortage of upstream components caused by the pandemic led memory brands to overbook purchase orders while sluggish sales on the distribution channel side have resulted in slow depletion of current notebook inventory, resulting in a further weakening of notebook demand in 2023 In terms of PC DRAM, the proportion of DDR4 and LPDDR4X in PC applications will fall further while the penetration rate of LPDDR5 and DDR5 continues to rise However, the price premium of DDR5 will limit the growth of density in PCs DRAM density in PCs is estimate to increase by approximately 7% annually in 2023 If manufactures cut DDR5 pricing more aggressively next year, installed capacity may be driven up to 9%, depending on whether DDR5 price concessions can be effectively reconciled with DDR4 In terms of PC client SSDs, estimated average installed capacity only increased slightly by 11%, the lowest in the past three years The primary reason is that in the past two years, notebook shipments had spiked due to pandemic demand, simultaneously driving SSD installation rate Average capacity has readily driven up average capacity growth due to the previous tightening of SSD master IC supply However, notebook computer whole device costs have maintained an upward trend in the past two years due to the rising price of components, leading to branded PC manufacturers planning relatively conservative SSD capacity demand bits Since server shipment forecasts have demonstrated impressive growth in past years, subsequent growth momentum will slow since computational fundamentals are already high In terms of Server DRAM, due to the advent of fifth generation memory specifications, the new Sapphire Rapids and Genoa platforms have increased the cost of whole devices and average server capacity has begun to encounter restrictions Instead of the prior practice of merely upgrading the capacity of a single module, demand side considerations will focus more on hardware costs and the practice of ESG strategies Average capacity increase of server DRAM is forecast to be limited in 2023, with an annual increase of approximately 7% In terms of Enterprise SSD, the new Sapphire Rapids and Genoa platforms have begun to upgrade to support the PCIe 50 transfer standard in order to meet the needs of HPC and big data computing The capacity of SSDs must also be upgraded simultaneously to ensure PCIe 50 transfer performance This trend will contribute to the growth of the average capacity of enterprise SSDs next year In addition, as the overall NAND Flash oversupply continues into 1H23, a reduction in NAND Flash pricing will increase the shipment ratio of products above 4TB and the average annual growth rate of enterprise SSD capacity in 2023 is estimated to be 26% As inflation rises, world economies are generally holding a pessimistic view of the consumer market TrendForce believes, cyclical replacement demand and new demand in emerging regions will lead to a slight increase in smartphone production In terms of Mobile DRAM, the Android camp currently has sufficient installed capacity to meet the needs of daily systems operation Therefore, barring impetus provided by innovative applications and considering the cost of whole devices and the low proportion of high-end sales, smartphone brands’ willingness to increase installed capacity has fallen accordingly In terms of the iOS camp, a high degree of operating system optimization reduces demand for mobile DRAM capacity Mobile DRAM density is estimated to increase by only 5% annually in 2023 In terms of smartphone NAND Flash, as the penetration rate of 5G smartphones gradually expands and applications require larger installed capacity to meet the needs of high-quality video recording, basic momentum can be seen for increasing NAND Flash density in smartphones At the same time, the iPhone product portfolio is still moving towards higher capacity across the board and high-end Android models have followed suit with 512GB as standard, while storage in mid- and low-end models will increase with subsequent upgrades in hardware specifications Thus, there is still room for growth in overall average capacity Annual growth of smartphone NAND Flash density is forecast to be maintained at 221% in 2023, slightly lower than that in 2022, but still at a high level For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/   The Webinar, ”COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar: Diverse Market Opportunities Generated by Applications of Cyber-Physical Systems” will start from June 15, 2022 The TrendForce research team including Mark Liu, Caron Ju, Bryan Ao, and Alex Chen will present speeches regarding memory, servers, and datacenters, respectively 【Info】 When:Wednesday, June, 15 Where:COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar (Free to access)

Press Releases
Suppliers More Willing to Acquiesce on Price, 3Q22 DRAM Pricing Decline Expands to Nearly 10%, Says TrendForce

2022/07/04

Semiconductors

According to the latest TrendForce research, despite the rapid weakening of overall consumer demand in 1H22, DRAM manufacturers previously presented a tough stance on price negotiations and gave little ground, steadily conveying inventory pressure from buyers to sellers Facing uncertain peak-season demand in 2H22, some DRAM suppliers have begun effectively expressing clear intentions to cut prices, especially in the server field, where demand is relatively stable, in order to reduce inventory pressure This situation will cause 3Q22 DRAM pricing to drop from the previous 3~8% to nearly 10% QoQ If a price war is incited due to companies competing for sales, the drop in prices may exceed 10% PC OEMs have continuously downgraded their shipment prospects  With average DRAM inventory levels at more than two months, unless a huge price incentive exists, there is no urgent demand for procurement At the same time, thanks to continuous adoption of the advanced 1Z/1alpha process, supply continued to increase in 3Q22  DDR4 output could not be effectively reduced due to high pricing limiting the penetration rate of DDR5 The price decline of PC DRAM in 3Q22 is revised to 5~10% At present, server DRAM inventory clients have on hand is approximately 7 to 8 weeks and the buyers’ consensus is that the price of DRAM will continue to fall due to increased inventory pressure on sellers If manufacturers are willing to provide attractive quotations, buyers are willing to discuss the possibility of volume commitments As advanced manufacturing processes progress dynamically and terminal consumer products continue to weaken, server DRAM has become the only effective sales outlet Therefore, Korean manufacturers were the first to signal a willingness to discuss a quarterly pricing reduction of more than 5%, which expanded the decline of server DRAM to 5~10% in 3Q22 Smartphone production targets continued to be downgraded due to the sluggish economy  In addition, smartphone brands are also pessimistic regarding future prospects, casting a gloom over their attitude towards materials stocking However, the output of mobile DRAM still increased in 3Q22 due to the adoption of advanced processes among several manufacturers, increasing pressure on suppliers This increases the willingness of sellers to offer price concessions Given the polarized disparity between supply and demand, the pricing decline of mobile DRAM is forecast to expand to 8-13% this quarter Demand for graphics DRAM procurement has weakened due to inflation-related reduction in consumer products demand and a faltering cryptocurrency market At the same time, migrating graphics DRAM production capacity to other types of DRAM products in not as easy as migrating standard DRAM (Commodity DRAM) capacity Although demand has weakened, it is difficult for suppliers to quickly adjust output Therefore, they are also facing increasing inventory pressure Graphics DRAM pricing in 3Q22 is revised to decline 3-8% QoQ TV shipments lead the fall and demand related to networking and industrial applications have also shown signs of weakening The price of DDR3 is currently at a relatively high point and there is plenty of room for pricing to fall in the future Weak stocking momentum originating from DDR4-related applications does not rule out the possibility of a wider decline In addition to the expansion of output due to the introduction of advanced processes, Chinese and Taiwanese manufacturers will still add new production capacity in 2H22 The decline in consumer DRAM pricing is forecast to deepen to 8~13% this quarter For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/ The Webinar, ”COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar: Diverse Market Opportunities Generated by Applications of Cyber-Physical Systems” will start from June 15, 2022 The TrendForce research team including Mark Liu, Caron Ju, Bryan Ao, and Alex Chen will present speeches regarding memory, servers, and datacenters, respectively 【Info】 When:Wednesday, June, 15 Where:COMPUFORUM 2022 Webinar (Free to access)

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