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2023/09/13
TrendForce’s latest insights reveal that by 2023, shipments of foldable smartphones could skyrocket to an impressive 183 million units, marking a 43% YoY surge However, this only captures a slim 16% of the year’s total smartphone market Fast forward to 2024, and we’re looking at another leap—a 38% growth, translating to a hefty 252 million units and nudging the market share up to 22% Looking at the medium to long term, TrendForce believes the expansion of the foldable smartphone market is inevitable By 2027, shipments could soar to a whopping 70 million units, seizing around 5% of the global smartphone market
The driving force behind the foldable market’s expansion? Reduced costs and the expansion strategies of Chinese brands TrendForce posits that as the cost of components plummets—especially panel and hinge expenses—the stage is set for foldable phone prices to potentially slide below the US$1,000 threshold This shift would undeniably spur consumer interest and purchase intent
Branding paints its own picture This year, Samsung once again led the pack, with projections pointing toward a robust 125 million unit shipment But there’s a twist Its stronghold, a staggering 82% market share in 2022, slipped to 68% Why? It’s because of the surging tidal wave of foldables from Chinese contenders Huawei clinched the runner-up spot, estimated to have dispatched around 25 million foldables for a respectable 14% of the market share Hot on their heels were OPPO and Xiaomi, with market shares of 5% and 4%, respectively Other brands have each snagged less than 4%
Pandemic repercussions echo here too TrendForce sheds light on the fact that Chinese foldable brands, impacted by recent global events, have mostly kept their eyes on home turf, eschewing aggressive overseas expansion However, if these brands pivot and ramp up their global sales game, they might just turbocharge the foldable market’s growth trajectory
And then, there’s Apple—the enigmatic juggernaut To date, Apple’s foray into foldables has been tepid, to say the least This restraint has undoubtedly doused consumer fervor for foldable Yet, true to form, Apple’s unwavering obsession with user experience could be the culprit Persistent challenges with foldable tech—think panel evenness and hinge design—might be holding them back But here’s the kicker: Achieving perfection with larger foldable panels is somewhat simpler than their smaller counterparts Could this mean Apple might leapfrog right into medium-sized foldable products—like laptops or tablets? Only time will tell
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/07/19
In a forecast that spells positive news for the auto industry, TrendForce’s latest research report on automotive panels anticipates a substantial increase in demand for automotive panels As global recovery from the pandemic continues, the automotive market is regaining its momentum TrendForce predicts that the shipment quantity for automotive panels will cross the 200 million mark in 2023, reaching an estimated 205 million units—a 51% YoY growth The report further highlights that with the increasing usage of automotive panels, the growth of automotive panel driver ICs is stepping into the limelight In particular, the application of Touch and Display Driver Integration (TDDI) in new designs is gradually rising, leading to a continuous increase in market share
The advantage of automotive TDDI lies in the integration of touch and drive functions, which can reduce IC usage and optimize overall costs This simplifies supply chain management for automakers and Tier One suppliers Moreover, panels equipped with TDDI adopt an embedded touch (In-Cell) design, which promises superior optical performance compared to traditional add-on touch modules
Most new car models currently under development are predicted to adopt TDDI architecture—increasing its usage even further TrendForce predicts a 54% YoY increase in 2023, raising TDDI shipment volume from 24 million units in 2022 to 38 million units in 2023
TrendForce identifies Himax as the current leading IC design house in the automotive TDDI market The company’s early entry and mature experience in field have garnered high levels of trust from strict Tier One suppliers and automaker clients Synaptics and FocalTech are also recognized as key players due to their early presence in the automotive TDDI market, each securing a place in Japanese and Chinese automakers’ TDDI supply chain, respectively
Other IC design houses, although late to the game, are starting to introduce new products in collaboration with panel makers including LX-Semicon, Raydium, and Novatek Provided the verification process goes smoothly, these companies could potentially experience significant growth in the coming years
TrendForce predicts that automotive panel sizes will gradually increase, benefitting the growth of automotive TDDI Additionally, IC design houses are considering cost savings for ICs, and as such panel makers are expected to transition to Large-sized Touch and Display Driver Integration (LTDI) as panel sizes exceed 30 inches At this stage, most IC houses are in the initial stages of development
TrendForce highlights that the rapid growth in demand for automotive panels over recent years has motivated various IC design houses to develop and market their products However, unlike the consumer electronics market, automotive products remand a high level of reliability and safety, in addition to cost Traditional automakers in Europe, America, and Japan, in particular, have high barriers to entry for their supply chains The processes and products must comply with automotive specifications such as AEC-Q100 and ISO 26262, with verification times often reaching to 2 to 3 years Panel makers must also provide at least a 5-year supply guarantee—a requirement quite different from the operating mode of consumer product markets Therefore, established suppliers are tough to replace, and newcomers will need to commit significant resources to compete for a spot in the supply chain
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/05/24
According to TrendForce "AMOLED Technology and Shipment Tracker" that the continuing global economic downturn continues to exert pressure on the smartphone, with this year’s projected market size falling short of 12 billion units Concurrently, advancements in both software and hardware of new devices have plateaued, shifting the market focus toward foldable smartphones TrendForce estimates that shipments of foldable smartphones will reach 198 million units in 2023, marking an impressive YoY growth rate of 55% compared to 128 million units last year
Relatively high prices have been a significant barrier to the wider adoption of foldable smartphones However, devices with exorbitant price tags akin to the Huawei X2 (USD 2,000+) launched in 2021 are no longer commonplace as brands and module makers continuously develop new technologies to optimize costs For instance, OLED organic materials currently account for approximately 23% of the cost of foldable smartphone OLED panels As more suppliers enter this competitive landscape, prices are forecasted to fall Similarly, the price of hinges—another critical component—used to range between CNY 800–1200, but is now adjusting downwards, alleviating the overall cost pressure of foldable smartphones and boosting consumer acceptance
Samsung, the earliest entrant into the foldable smartphone market, maintains its lead over other brands in research and production technologies It’s rumored that its next-generation Fold/Flip 5 will be unveiled in late July and hit the market in August The new design is expected to feature a significantly larger cover display, setting it apart from the previous generation Samsung currently commands around 70% of the overall foldable smartphone market, shipping approximately 13 million units
Chinese brands like Huawei, OPPO, Vivo, Xiaomi, and Honor have all joined the race for foldable smartphones Huawei’s Pocket S, released in 2022, has seen a warm reception in the consumer market, thanks to its appealing design and competitive pricing, despite being equipped with a 4G processor Last year, Huawei’s market share stood at around 10% and is expected to approach 20% this year Other Chinese brands hold around 3–5% market share in the foldable smartphone sector If they can extend their foldable devices into global channels, their sales volumes are expected to rise even further
At present, the market is focused on the recently released Google Pixel Fold, which features a 76-inch 2208x1840 resolution OLED panel and a 58-inch 2092x1080 resolution OLED panel for the cover display Transsion, a company with a longstanding presence in the African market, introduced its first foldable smartphone, the Phantom V Fold, earlier this year With an increasing number of brands expected to venture into foldable smartphone production, TrendForce estimates the market penetration of foldable phones to be around 17% in 2023 With continuous improvements in cost and design, this figure is expected to surpass 5% by 2027
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/03/22
Panel makers have aggressively driven down the prices of display driver ICs (DDIs) over the past few quarters in response to slumping panel prices Meanwhile, foundries have not made any significant price adjustments recently Even when Nexchip lowered prices in 2022 to increase their capacity utilization rate, wafer prices remained relatively stable TrendForce’s research has revealed that instead, many foundries have offered deals such as discounts or free wafers to effectively lower DDI prices without officially changing them, since demand is expected to recover in 2H23 As of 1Q23, the prices of large-sized DDIs have been resistant to falling as it’s too difficult for wafer prices to return to their pre-pandemic levels The ASP of DDIs is expected to remain level throughout 2Q23 or dip slightly by 1–3%
TrendForce further iterates that DDIs have faced a long period of strict control over ICs in order to manage inventory levels, which appear to be at a healthy level moving into 2Q23 It was rare to see DDI inventory peak for more half a year in 2022 since most products usually fall to a healthy level in about 8–10 weeks As prices of large-sized DDIs fell significantly by the end of 2022, it’s predicted that panel demand in 2023 will increase QoQ — especially in the third quarter, which has traditionally been the peak season An increase in demand for panels will in turn help drive up demand for DDIs
Taking a look at DDI applications, it’s expected to see demand for panels increase QoQ TV panel prices have rebounded since falling significantly and brands are raring to stock up just in time for China’s 618 Shopping Day and Amazon Prime Day Notebook brands have been gradually replenishing panel inventory for their high-end laptops; gaming LCD monitor panel makers have also adjusted output to keep up with increased demand from Internet cafes reopening in China TrendForce observed that DDI wafer input has increased However, when compared to before the pandemic, all parties within the supply chain have grown more fearful of stockpiling ICs
With that being said, it’s predicted that demand for DDIs will continue to rise QoQ while prices stay relatively the same Demand is expected to peak as we move into the third quarter and since suppliers have become hesitant to stockpile, it may take 2–3 months to prep enough inventory Therefore, TrendForce notes that the question of whether enough stock will be ready in time for the demand peak is still up in the air If there is insufficient supply to meet the demand, or production capacity is not enough to fulfill that excess demand, then DDIs will once again have to cope with being in tight supply in the short term TrendForce does not rule out the possibility that the effects of this could trickle through the entire panel supply chain
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
2023/01/10
According to TrendForce’s analysis of the supply chain for display panels, demand slowed dramatically in 2Q22 and thereby caused inventory level to rise sharply for display driver ICs (DDIs) within a short period However, the market for DDIs is in a notably better state now in 1Q23 following two to three quarters of price decline, reduction in wafer input, and inventory consumption Moreover, the first quarter is the critical period when DDI suppliers set their wafer input quantities In order to effectively meet the demand for 2H23, DDI suppliers will need to finish arranging orders with their foundry partners by the end of 1Q23
Regarding the whole 2023, the general outlook on geopolitics and the global economy is still rather pessimistic Also, panel demand is not expected to climb back to the peak that it reached before the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic However, TrendForce believes that since panel prices have pretty much hit the bottom, the panel market as a whole will recover gradually over the quarters Later, with the arrival of the traditional peak season in 3Q23, demand is anticipated to rise significantly in the panel market Hence, the corresponding demand for DDIs will rebound as well
According to TrendForce’s investigation, inventory began to surge for DDI suppliers in 2Q22, extending to more than 6 months DDI suppliers therefore had to immediately revise their wafer input quantities Working panel makers, DDI suppliers were urgently seeking a solution to clear excess inventory Turning to foundries, DDI suppliers were scaling back wafer input Even under the consequences of recognizing their inventory losses or compensating foundries for not meeting the terms of their long-term agreements, DDI suppliers were steadfast in reducing their existing stocks so as to minimize the impact from the rapidly deteriorating market situation
Based on TrendForce’s observations, DDI suppliers did manage to begin lowering their inventory levels Although they found that the general pace of inventory reduction was slower than they had hoped, the traditional peak season together with holiday-related promotions around the end of 2022 helped clear a notable amount of excess stock In case of DDIs for large-sized TV panels, a gradual return to an optimal inventory level is expected within 1Q23
Regarding the general price trend of DDIs, it was on a slide through 2022The cost pressure on DDI suppliers had been very heavy due to two major factors First, foundries had earlier raised wafer prices in response to the pandemic-related chip shortage Second, the demand freeze in 2Q22 caused an inventory pile-up Despite this strong cost pressure, DDI suppliers were compelled to slash prices because of the massive demand correction and the collapse of panel prices Hence, prices of DDIs fell by 5~10% for every quarter of 2022 Currently, prices of DDIs have returned to almost the level where they began their pandemic-induced rally in 2020 Apart from this, gross margin has also shrunk considerably for DDIs In this situation, most DDI suppliers are still compelled to cut prices further even if their foundry partners opt to not make significant concessions on wafer quotes In order to capture a steady flow of demand over the long run, DDI suppliers might even offer quotes that are below the market average for some transactions On the other hand, the erosion of gross margin has become notable, so there is a limit to how far prices can go down
TrendForce also points out that the lead time for DDI orders can extend to around three months To meet a panel maker’s demand for a particular quarter, a DDI supplier will have to be ready to make the corresponding wafer input no later than at the start of the quarter before Hence, a sudden shift in supply-demand dynamics is a potential issue that warrants consideration Presently, DDI suppliers are sticking with a conservative wafer input plan because they still want further lower their inventories At the same time, there are uncertainties as to the amount of demand that will be released in the future So, there is a risk of delays in wafer input for DDIs if foundries do not set aside sufficient production capacity to process orders for these chips After all, foundries could allocate more production capacity to other kinds of semiconductor components like power management ICs Under such scenario, an influx of orders from panel makers could lead to tight supply or even shortage
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
