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Press Releases
Navitas Takes Leadership Position in 2021 Ranking of GaN Power Devices Manufacturers with 29% Market Share by Shipment, Says TrendForce

2021/09/30

Semiconductors

Demand for fast chargers used for various consumer electronics has been quickly rising For instance, smartphone brands such as Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo led the industry by releasing fast chargers in 2018, subsequently gaining consumer acceptance via their fast chargers’ competitive advantages in cooling efficiency and compact physical dimensions At the moment, notebook computer manufacturers are also expressing a willingness to adopt fast charging technology Hence, the GaN power devices segment became the fastest-growing category in the third-generation semiconductor industry TrendForce expects annual GaN power devices revenue for 2021 to reach US$83 million, an impressive 73% YoY increase Regarding the ranking of GaN power devices suppliers, Navitas is projected to obtain a 29% market share (measured by total shipment) and overtake Power Integration for the top position this year Thanks to Navitas’ proprietary GaNFast power IC design and great relationships with its partners in the semiconductor supply chain, it has become the largest supplier of GaN power IC chips in the consumer electronics markets The company is currently partnering with leading global smartphone and PC OEMs, including Dell, Lenovo, LG, Xiaomi, and OPPO Given the rising demand for Navitas’ fast charge ICs from clients this year, the company is expected to transition its chip orders in 2H21 from TSMC’s Fab 2, which is a 6-inch wafer fab, to other 8-inch fabs instead, in order to resolve the issue of insufficient production capacity At the same time, Navitas is also targeting SAIC (Xiamen Sanan) as a potential supplier of foundry services With regards to other markets for GaN applications, Navitas will likely target the data center market first by releasing related products in 2022 Proven power management IC supplier PI (Power Integrations) was the longtime undisputed leader in the GaN power devices market For this year, PI has released the latest InnoSwitchTM4-CZ series of chips, based on its proprietary PowiGaNTM technology Featured in products such as Anker’s 65W fast chargers, the InnoSwitch4-CZ chips have received universal acclaim from the fast charge market In addition, PI’s recently released integrated AC-DC controller and USB PD controller ICs are expected to be major drivers of PI’s revenue growth this year With an estimated 24% market share, PI will likely take the runner-up spot in the ranking of GaN power devices suppliers for 2021 China-based Innoscience is expected to possess the third-highest market share in 2021 It should be pointed out that the market share of China-based Innoscience is projected to rise to 20% this year, the third highest among GaN suppliers Innoscience’s remarkable performance can primarily be attributed to the massive spike in its shipment of high-voltage and low-voltage GaN products In particular, Innoscience’s GaN power ICs, used for fast chargers, are now entering the supply chains of tier-one notebook manufacturers for the first time ever At the same time, while the company’s Suzhou-based 8-inch wafer fab has already kicked off mass production, Innoscience will gradually expand the competitive advantage derived from its IDM business model in the fast-evolving GaN industry Not only is the company currently actively cultivating its presence in applications including Lidar, OBC (onboard charger) for EVs, and LED power supplies, but it will also look to increase its market share even further next year via its diverse product mix According to TrendForce’s investigations, China invested in about 25 projects aimed at expanding the domestic production capacity of third-generation semiconductors in 2020 (excluding GaN-based optoelectronics materials and devices) These projects totaled more than RMB¥70 billion, a 180% YoY increase In particular, commercial products manufactured using SiC substrates, which are the most crucial materials in the third-generation semiconductor industry chain, are primarily based on 4-inch wafers in China, but the country is currently migrating to 6-inch wafers Although the technological gap between China and its global competitors is fast narrowing, China is still noticeably inferior in terms of monocrystalline quality, resulting in a relatively low self-sufficiency rate of high-performance SiC substrates TrendForce’s data indicate that, as of 1H21, about seven production lines have been installed in China for GaN-on-Si wafers, while at least four production lines for GaN power devices are currently under construction, also in China On the other hand, China possesses at least 14 production lines (including those allocated to pilot runs) for 6-inch SiC wafers For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
TrendForce Announces 10 Tech Industry Trends for 2022

2021/09/16

Semiconductors , Display , Consumer Electronics +3

In this press release, TrendForce details 10 major trends that are expected to take place across various segments in the tech industry, as follows: Micro/Mini LED display development will revolve around active matrix solutions A substantial number of technical bottlenecks in Micro LED development will still persist in 2022 While Micro LED manufacturing costs are expected to remain sky-high due to these bottlenecks, companies have not shown decreased willingness to participate in all segments of the Micro LED supply chain On the contrary, these companies are actively expanding their respective production lines Regarding the development of self-emitting Micro LED display products, TVs represent one of the major directions of mainstream Micro LED development, primarily because TVs, compared to IT products, have a relatively low technological barrier of entry In other words, Micro LED TVs are easier to develop than are other Micro LED display products For instance, after releasing a 110-inch commercial passive matrix Micro LED display, Samsung will likely continue to develop 88-inch (and under) consumer-grade active matrix Micro LED TVs This extension of Micro LED technology from the large-sized commercial display segment to the household-use segment by Samsung is in turn indicative of the overall expansion of the Micro LED market Regarding display products equipped with Mini LED backlights, brands have been raising the number of Mini LED chips used per panel in an attempt to boost the specs of their display products and pursue 1:1,000,000 high contrast ratios that are comparable to OLED displays As a result, Mini LED backlight panels’ LED chip consumption is more than 10 times higher compared to traditional LED backlight panels, in addition to the fact that Mini LED backplane manufacturing requires SMT equipment with a higher degree of accuracy and production capacity While Mini LED backlights are primarily based on passive matrix solutions, they will move towards active matrix solutions going forward, with a corresponding surge in Mini LED chip consumption Hence, the performance and capacity of SMT equipment will also become one of the key criteria in brands’ selection of potential supply chain partners More advanced AMOLED technology and under-display cameras will usher in the next stage of smartphone revolution As the supply of and production capacity for AMOLED panels continue to rise, AMOLED technology has also become increasingly mature Leading suppliers are still attempting to tack on additional functions and improved specs to their AMOLED panels in order to not only raise said panels’ added values, but also maintain the competitive advantages of the suppliers themselves The primary value added to AMOLED panels in 2022 will likely continue to be the ever-improving foldable designs, which will feature optimized weight reduction and power efficiency Apart from mainstream foldable phones that can unfold to reach tablet-like sizes, clamshell-like designs such as flip-up and flip-down smartphone bodies will also emerge as a form factor that more closely resembles the smartphones currently in use Furthermore, retail prices of foldable phones are expected to generally fall within the price bands of mainstream flagships, thereby generating sales growths for the upcoming foldable models Other foldable designs, including form factors with even more folds or rollable form factors, are expected to enter production within the near future TrendForce expects foldable phones to reach a penetration rate of more than 1% in 2022 and 4% in 2024 LTPO panels, on the other hand, are an effective solution to power consumption issues arising from the adoption of 5G technology and high refresh rate displays Hence, LTPO panels will likely gradually become the mainstream display panel for flagship smartphones After two years of development and adjustments, under-display camera modules will finally make their appearance in various brands’ flagship models and enable the creation of smartphones with true full-screen displays The foundry industry welcomes the arrival of 3nm process technology courtesy of TSMC’s FinFET and Samsung’s GAA technologies As semiconductor manufacturing processes gradually approach physical limits, chip development must now turn to either “changes in transistor architecture” or “breakthroughs in back-end packaging technology or materials” in order to achieve faster performances, reduced power consumption, and smaller footprints After incorporating EUV lithography at the 7nm node in 2018, the semiconductor industry will welcome yet another revolutionary process technology in 2022 – the 3nm node More specifically, TSMC and Samsung are expected to announce their respective 3nm process technologies in 2H22 While the former will continue to adopt the FinFET architecture that it has been using since the 1Xnm node, Samsung will for the first time utilize its own implementation of GAAFET, called MBCFET (multi-bridge channel field-effect transistor) for its 3nm process technology In contrast with the FinFET architecture, in which the gate makes contact with the source/drain channel on three sides, the GAAFET architecture consists of a gate that surrounds the nanowire or nanosheet channel on four sides, thus increasing the surface area of contact The GAAFET design significantly reduces leakage currents by giving the gate a greater degree of control over the channel Regarding possible applications, the first batch of products mass produced at the 3nm node in 2H22 is expected to primarily be HPC and smartphone chips since these products place a relatively high demand on performance, power consumption, and chip compactness While DDR5 products gradually enter mass production, NAND Flash stacking technology will advance past 200 layers The three dominant DRAM suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron) will not only gradually kick off mass production of next-gen DDR5 products, but also continue to increase the penetration rate of LPDDR5 in the smartphone market in response to demand for 5G smartphones With memory speed in excess of 4800Mbps, DDR5 DRAM can massively improve computing performances via their fast speed and low power consumption As Intel releases its new CPUs that support DDR5 memory, with Alder Lake for the PC segment, followed by Eagle Stream for the server segment, DDR5 is expected to account for about 10-15% of DRAM suppliers’ total bit output by the end of 2022 Regarding process technologies, Samsung and SK hynix will kick off mass production of 1 alpha nm products manufactured with EUV lithography These products’ market shares will likely increase on a quarterly basis next year Turning to NAND Flash products, their stacking technologies have yet to reach a bottleneck Hence, after 176L products entered mass production in 2021, suppliers will continue to migrate towards 200L and above in 2022, although these upcoming products’ chip densities will remain at 512Gb/1Tb Regarding storage interfaces, the market share of PCIe Gen4 SSDs will likely skyrocket in the consumer PC segment next year In the server segment, as Intel Eagle Stream CPUs, which support PCIe Gen 5, enter mass production, the enterprise SSD market will also see the release of products that support this interface Compared to the previous generation, PCIe Gen 5 features double the data transfer rate at 32GT/s and an expanded storage capacity for mainstream products at 4/8TB in order to meet the HPC demand of servers and data centers Additionally, the release of PCIe Gen 5 SSDs is expected to quickly raise the average data storage capacity per server unit Regarding the server market, flexible pricing schemes and diverse services offered by CSPs have directly propelled the cloud service demand of enterprises in the past two years From the perspective of the server supply chain, the predominant business model has gradually transformed from traditional server brands to ODM Direct, meaning that traditional server brands will see fundamental, structural changes, such as providing colocation servers or full-service cloud migration support, in their business models This shift also means that enterprise clients will come to rely on more flexible pricing schemes and diverse risk mitigation measures in response to an uncertain global environment In particular, while the pandemic accelerated changes in work and everyday life in 2020, hyperscalers are expected to account for nearly 50% of total demand for servers in 2022 In addition, the growth in ODM Direct server shipment is expected to surpass 10% YoY as well Mobile network operators will undertake more trial projects for 5G SA network slicing and low-latency applications Mobile network operators have been actively release 5G SA (standalone) networks as the core network powering various services around the world, in turn accelerating the build-out of base stations in major cities, diversifying their network services (via network slicing and edge computing), and delivering end-to-end networks with a high degree of quality assurance Moving to 2022, applications that are at the intersection of 5G, massive IoT, and critical IoT will emerge in response to enterprise demand These applications, including light switches, sensors, and thermostats used in smart factories, involve the combination of network endpoints and data transmission In particular, critical IoT applications include smart grid automation, telemedicine, traffic safety, and industrial automation, whereas critical IoT use cases within the context of Industry 40 include asset tracking, predictive maintenance, FSM (field service management), and logistics optimization Now that the pandemic has forced enterprises to engage in digital transformation and brought changes to the general public’s lifestyles, the importance of 5G deployment has become increasingly apparent Private 5G networks, openRAN, unlicensed spectrums, and mmWave developments have also generated a diverse ecosystem that ranges from traditional mobile network operators to other emerging service providers, including OTT media service providers, CSPs, social media, and online businesses In the future, mobile network operators will likely actively expand their enterprise 5G applications For instance, O2’s 5G-ENCODE project explores new business models in industrial 5G networks, while Vodafone is collaborating with the MFM (Midlands Future Mobility) consortium to test networks for autonomous vehicles Satellite operators will compete over the low-earth orbit satellite market, with 3GPP now supporting non-terrestrial networks 3GPP recently announced that Release 17 Protocol Coding Freeze will take place in 2022 Release 17 represents the first time 3GPP has incorporated NTN (non-terrestrial network) communications into its releases and therefore marks a significant milestone for both the mobile communications industry and the satellite communications industry Prior to this, mobile communications and satellite communications had been two separate, independently developing industries That is why companies working across the two industries in the upstream, midstream, and downstream supply were generally different as well After 3GPP includes NTN in its upcoming release, the two industries are likely to generate more opportunities for collaboration and co-create brand new innovations Regarding the deployment of LEO (low earth orbit) satellites, US-based SpaceX has applied to launch the highest number of satellites among all satellite operators Other major operators include Amazon, UK-based OneWeb, Canada-based Telesat, etc Region-wise, US operators account for more than 50% of all satellites launched Not only do LEO satellites have the advantage of signal coverage that is unaffected by geographical features, such as mountainous regions, oceans, and deserts, but they are also able to synergize with the 5G network The ability of LEO satellites, as part of the NTN, to enhance 5G communications makes them a crucial component in the 3GPP Release 17 TrendForce therefore forecasts an increase in global satellite revenue in 2022 While smart factories are among the first to leverage digital twins, IoT technologies are expected to become the backbone of the metaverse The new normal that emerged in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to propel demand for contactless devices and digital transformations As part of this evolution, IoT development in 2022 will likely focus on CPS (cyber-physical systems), which combines 5G, edge computing, and AI technologies to extract and analyze valuable information from vast data streams for the purpose of smart automation and prediction A current example of CPS applications is the digital twin, used for such verticals as smart manufacturing and smart cities; while CPS integration for the former facilitates design, testing, and manufacturing simulations, the latter make use of CPS to monitor significant assets and assist in policymaking Now that industrial realities have become more complex, and the interplay between usage cases and equipment have increasingly demanded attention, digital twins will subsequently be deployed to a wider range of applications Paired with 3D sensing, VR, and AR capabilities, IoT-based metaverse will likely emerge as a smart, complete, real-time, and safe mirror to the physical world, and the first application of IoT-based metaverse is expected to be smart factories Ultimately, technological innovations in data collection (including visual, auditory, and environmental data via sensors), data analysis (via AI platform integration), and data integrity (via blockchains) will also emerge as a result of IoT development AR/VR equipment manufacturers aim to deliver fully immersive experiences via integration of additional sensors and AI processing The COVID-19 pandemic has fundamentally changed the way people live and work For enterprises, the pandemic not only accelerated their pace of digital transformation, but also increased their willingness to integrate emerging technologies into their existing operations For instance, AR/VR adoption for applications such as virtual meetings, AR remote support, and virtual design has been on the rise recently On the other hand, companies will likely focus on various remote interaction functionalities in virtual communities and online games as an important AR/VR market segment TrendForce therefore believes that the AR/VR market will expand by a considerable margin in 2022 due to the falling retail prices of AR/VR hardware as well as the growing adoption of such hardware for various use cases Furthermore, the market will also continue to pursue more realistic AR/VR effects, such as applications that feature more realistic images constructed by software tools or the creation of virtual responses from real-world data assisted by either AI processing or the integration of various sensors For instance, eye-tracking functionalities will become an optional feature of consumer products released by Oculus and Sony Apart from these examples, AR/VR solutions may even evolve to the point where they are able to provide partial haptic feedback to the user through controllers or other wearable devices in order to deepen user immersion A natural extension of autonomous driving technology, automated valet parking is set to resolve drivers’ pain points As part of autonomous driving technology’s implementation aimed at improving everyday life, AVP (automated valet parking), an SAE level 4 driverless parking service, is expected to become an important optional function of high-end vehicles beginning in 2022 Relevant international standards are currently being drafted and are expected to facilitate the adoption of AVP going forward However, since AVP systems differ according to vehicle specifications, they are subject to various restrictions related to driving conditions, including fixed/unfixed routes and private/public parking spaces, while parking lot conditions such as wireless network connectivity and the comprehensiveness of traffic markings can also affect the viability of AVP The distance between people and the vehicle during AVP use, on the other hand, is governed by domestic laws In view of automakers’ diverse technological roadmaps, AVP parking routes are generated by either local computing on the vehicle end or cloud computing, the latter of which requires sufficient network connectivity in order to function The former is therefore expected to see usage in a wider variety of use cases Alternatively, some vehicles may be equipped with both computing solutions With other such factors as V2X and high-definition maps affecting the range of AVP applications, TrendForce expects an increasing number of different AVP solutions to be under development at the moment The third-generation semiconductor industry will move towards 8-inch wafers and new packaging technologies while expanding in production capacity The gradual phasing out of ICE vehicles by various governments across the 2025-2050 period is set to both accelerate the pace of EV sales and increase the penetration rate of SiC and GaN devices/modules Energy transition activities worldwide as well as the rapid growth of telecom applications such as 5G technology have also led to a persistent bull market for third-generation semiconductors, resulting in strong sales of SiC and Si substrates However, as current efforts in substrate production and development are relatively limited, suppliers are able to ensure a steady yield of SiC and GaN substrates only by manufacturing them with 6-inch wafers Such a limitation has, in turn, led to a long-term shortage in foundries’ and IDMs’ production capacities In response to this quandary, substrate suppliers, including Cree, II-VI, and Qromis, are now planning to not only expand their production capacities in 2022, but also migrate their SiC and GaN production to 8-inch wafers, in hopes that these plans will gradually alleviate the prevailing shortage in the third-generation semiconductor market On the other hand, foundries such as TSMC and VIS are attempting to shift to 8-inch wafer fabrication for GaN on Si technology, while major IDM Infineon is releasing products based on the latest CoolSiC MOSFET, delivering trench designs that enable significant power efficiency for semiconductor devices Finally, telecommunication component provider Qorvo has also released a new GaN MMIC copper flip chip packaging architecture for military applications For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
In View of the Upcoming Apple Event, TrendForce Presents Its Latest Estimates on Smartphone Production and Shipments of Other End Devices for 2021

2021/09/14

Consumer Electronics

Apple is set to unveil the successors to its current device lineups at this year’s fall product launch on September 14 Please see below for some of TrendForce's latest data pertaining to the global consumer electronics market: Although the tight supply of certain components due to complications resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic remains Apple’s primary production-related challenge, iPhone production will unlikely be drastically affected Total iPhone production for 2021 is expected to reach 2295 million units, a 156% YoY increase, with the upcoming iPhone 13 models accounting for about 37%-39% of Apple’s annual iPhone production In addition, iPhones are also expected to account for about 77% of total annual production of 5G smartphones in 2021, making them the market leader in this segment and representing a drastic increase from 39% in 2020 Regarding technical specifications, the Pro model of iPhone 13 is expected to include 1TB storage capacity as an optional upgrade Other improvements over previous models include the adoption of A15 processors manufactured with TSMC’s 5nm+ process technology All four iPhone 13 models will feature flexible AMOLED + On-cell designs for their display panels, while the Pro series will also feature a 120Hz refresh rate as well as LTPO technology for reduced power consumption Furthermore, all four models’ primary cameras will be equipped with sensor shift image stabilization The Pro model, in particular, will have its ultra-wide camera upgraded to a 6P lens, with the addition of autofocus capability as well Much like the iPhone 12, LiDAR functionality is available only for the Pro model of the iPhone 13 lineup In view of the lackluster sales performances of the iPhone 12 mini, which reached EOL ahead of time, the iPhone 13 mini is expected to account for less than 10% of total iPhone 13 production, since Apple will focus its sales efforts on the other three models TrendForce indicates that the global economy, markets, and personal incomes are all still experiencing the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has also led to price hikes for electronic components and transportation services, thereby compounding Apple’s difficulties in setting retail prices for the new iPhone models TrendForce expects Apple to continue the aggressive pricing strategy that it adopted for last year’s models in order to attract smartphone buyers, raise its revenue from services via increased handset sales, and make up for the aggressive prices via increased service revenue

Press Releases
Global Smartphone Production Declines by 11% QoQ to 307 Million Units for 2Q21 Owing to Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic in Southeast Asia, Says TrendForce

2021/09/02

Consumer Electronics

The recent surges of COVID-19 cases in India, Vietnam, and other Southeast Asian countries have adversely affected the global smartphone market in terms of production and demand, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations The global smartphone production for 2Q21 fell by 11% QoQ to a total of 307 million units However, a YoY comparison shows an increase of around 10% for the quarter The global production for 1H21 came to a total of 652 million units, translating to a growth rate of almost 18% compared with 1H20, when the pandemic was in the initial phase While fourth-ranked Apple undergoes a transition period between old and new models, and Samsung experiences a slight dip in market share, smartphone brands have improved their respective product specifications Samsung’s smartphone production for 2Q21 reached 585 million units, which was the highest among all smartphone brands yet represented a 235% QoQ decrease Since India and Vietnam account for the majority of its smartphone production capacity, the severe COVID-19 outbreaks in both countries during 2Q21 had a significant impact on production volume This year, Samsung will remain as the top smartphone brand by quarterly and annual production However, it will face increasing difficulty in preserving its steadily shrinking market share in the future The competition will only intensify as rival brands have become excelled at smartphone design and manufacturing OPPO’s smartphone production fell by 66% QoQ to 495 million units for 2Q21 OPPO’s production figure includes devices from sub-brands Realme and OnePlus Xiaomi’s smartphone production also came to 495 million units for 2Q21, showing a QoQ drop of 2% Xiaomi’s production figure includes devices from sub-brands Redmi, POCO, and Black Shark On a YoY basis, OPPO posted a growth rate of 80%, whereas Xiaomi posted a growth rate of almost 70% The high YoY growth rates were attributed to them capturing some market share abandoned by Huawei and the recovery of China’s smartphone market Both OPPO and Xiaomi claimed second place in the quarterly ranking Vivo is another Chinese brand that faces a similar situation Its smartphone production, which includes devices from sub-brand iQoo, dropped by 81% QoQ to 34 million units Vivo took fifth place in the quarterly ranking Each of these three Chinese brands has made India its second largest base with respect to production and sales operations Hence, India’s recent COVID-19 surge affected the production and sales performances of all three brands in 2Q21 Regarding future plans, all three Chinese brands corrected down their annual production targets at the end of 2Q21 due to the COVID-19 surge in Southeast Asia and the capacity crunch in the foundry market Lowering the annual production target is going to alleviate the cash flow pressure by preventing the component gaps from widening and the inventory of whole devices from rising It should be pointed out that OPPO, Xiaomi, and Vivo have been very proactive in developing innovative products in the high-end segment of the smartphone market The high-end models from these three brands are not able to completely assume the market positions that have been held by the flagship models under Huawei’s P and Mate series Nonetheless, all three brands have posted strong results in both the domestic and overseas markets To capture more market share, Xiaomi and OPPO are leveraging their respective sub-brands Redmi and Realme that both offer high performance for price TrendForce therefore believes that these two brands will be more or less evenly matched in terms of production through this whole year Apple’s iPhone production reached its lowest point for the year, and its rank fell to fourth place in 2Q21 because the second quarter is the transition period between last year’s and this year’s iPhone series The quarterly total iPhone production fell by 222% QoQ to around 42 million units In the aspect of product development, Apple will be releasing four flagship iPhone models this September The major upgrades that come with the new series are the improved camera and the next-generation A15 processor that is manufactured with TSMC’s 5nm+ process Other upgrades relate to the optimization of the existing functions This year’s iPhone line-up can be regarded as an extension of the iPhone 12 series that was released in 2020 With regards to pricing, Apple will be maintaining its proactive approach so as to gain more market share On the other hand, there is the possibility that Apple’s device production during 2H21 will be affected by the recent spike of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia Due to the severity of the outbreak situation, shipments of ICs from that country have experienced delays With an annual production of 94 million units for 2021, LG officially terminated its smartphone manufacturing operations in 2Q21 LG signaled that it will be selling or shutting down its mobile phone unit at the start of this year, and then the company announced that it will formally close the mobile phone unit this April The development of new smartphone models was also suspended According to the shutdown plan, the production of LG smartphones has ceased since the end of 2Q21 Altogether, LG produced around 94 million units this year and is estimated to account for about 1% of the market share As for LG’s regional markets, the company was focusing on expanding its presence in the respective mid-range segments of the North American and Latin American markets With LG ceasing its smartphone production, the abandoned market share in North America will be mostly divided among Android phone brands Samsung, Lenovo, and brands owned by local telecom companies In Latin America, Lenovo and Xiaomi will likely benefit the most from LG’s exit Persistent uncertainties in the pandemic’s impact may continue to affect smartphone production in 2H21 Regarding the global smartphone production for the whole 2021, TrendForce has corrected down its estimation from the previous version of 136 billion units with a YoY growth rate 85% to the current version of 1345 billion units with a YoY growth rate of 73% Going forward, one of the two main focuses of observation will be on whether the pandemic will cause a further decline in smartphone sales For instance, while Europe and the US are currently experiencing a resurgence of infections, Southeast Asian countries have also been unable to subdue the most recent outbreaks In addition, the pandemic continues to pose a risk to the smartphone supply chain Take Malaysia for example It accounts for a significant share of the global production capacity for OSAT (ie, around 15%) With the country now becoming a COVID-19 hotspot, there have been disruptions in the supply of some key semiconductor components This, in turn, will negatively affect smartphone production during the second half of this year For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Penetration Rate of Ice Lake CPUs in Server Market Expected to Surpass 30% by Year's End as x86 Architecture Remains Dominant, Says TrendForce

2021/08/12

Semiconductors

While the server industry transitions to the latest generation of processors based on the x86 platform, the Intel Ice Lake and AMD Milan CPUs entered mass production earlier this year and were shipped to certain customers, such as North American CSPs and telecommunication companies, at a low volume in 1Q21, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations These processors are expected to begin seeing widespread adoption in the server market in 3Q21 TrendForce believes that Ice Lake represents a step-up in computing performance from the previous generation due to its higher scalability and support for more memory channels On the other hand, the new normal that emerged in the post-pandemic era is expected to drive clients in the server sector to partially migrate to the Ice Lake platform, whose share in the server market is expected to surpass 30% in 4Q21 Volume ramp of CPUs based on the Eagle Stream platform will likely take place in 2Q22, while AMD is expected to reach a 15% share in the server market next year Regarding the mass production schedule of Intel CPUs based on the next-gen Eagle Stream platform, volume ramp is expected to occur in 2Q22 These processors, which feature embedded HBM, comprise a much more diverse product lineup compared to the previous generation Although Intel’s 2Q22 target represents a slight delay from the market’s previous expectation of a 4Q21 ramp-up, Eagle Stream CPUs will enter the final product qualification stage at the end of 4Q21, after which Intel will begin provisioning certain leading customers with a small batch of these CPUs in 1Q22, according to TrendForce’s survey of server ODMs As such, the mass production schedule of Sapphire Rapids will likely resemble the release of Ice Lake server processors earlier this year Genoa CPUs, AMD’s competitive equivalent of the Intel Eagle Stream, are expected to enter mass production on a similar schedule, since AMD’s wafer starts at the 5nm node have been relatively low-volume AMD’s server processors manufactured at the 14nm node and below have the competitive advantage in terms of price-to-performance, core count, and interface support Furthermore, after progressing to the 7nm node, these processors have been seeing gradually increased adoption by various public cloud service providers, including Google Cloud Platform, Microsoft Azure, and Tencent, throughout 2021 AMD CPUs have currently surpassed a 10% penetration rate in these three CSPs' servers Going forward, AMD will begin inputting wafers at the 5nm node at the end of 2021 in order to further optimize its processors’ cost, power consumption, and performance TrendForce therefore expects AMD CPUs to reach a 15% share in the global server market in 2022 While the ARM architecture is starting to gain popularity, ARM chips are mostly built-to-order due to the relatively small scale of client demand Processors based on the ARM architecture began seeing increased market penetration this year, with AWS’ self-designed Graviton chips enjoying the greatest market share In addition, Ampere and Marvell have also been releasing more agile and flexible ARM-based server processors, validation for which by CSPs is expected to kick off in 4Q21 The server market, however, is still dominated by x86 processors, which currently account for 97% of total server processor shipment In particular, AMD has transitioned most of its server offerings to processors manufactured at the 7nm and 7nm+ nodes by increasing wafer inputs at these nodes and replacing its old 14nm product lineups This transition has paid off, as some of AMD’s clients have gradually become receptive to these new products On the other hand, ARM- and RISC-based processors are currently built to order, mostly for the data center market TrendForce therefore believes that ARM CPUs will not be competitive with x86 CPUs in the server market before 2023 Support will extend to include PCIe G5 and DDR5 RDIMM, while CXL will improve memory performance It should be noted that Intel as the dominant leader in the market for x86 server CPUs has decided to have Eagle Stream support CXL (Compute Express Link) This interface further optimizes the memory coherence between the CPU and the memory components to which the CPU is connected The processor platform thus has the ultimate function of establishing a memory pool for all computing units within the server through memory virtualization, even though this function is not notably emphasized in the initial establishment of the product specifications, which originally sought to enable high-bandwidth and low-latency data transfer for the CPU The memory pool, in turn, enhances the interconnections (or the data transfer efficiency) among the CPU, memory, GPU, ASIC, FPGA, etc The new CXL interface will be able to offer significant improvements in terms of dealing with heavier workload in the future and conducting heterogeneous computing Moreover, CXL will be able to overcome the limits imposed on the current hardware architecture with respect to data transfer and thereby enable more effective integrated computing capability The build-out of data centers continues to grow because of the emergence of applications related to AI and Big Data Furthermore, the demand for larger cloud storage capacity has massively expanded as a result of enterprises’ increasingly rapid digital transformation efforts in the post-pandemic world At the same time, with the increase in CPU core count, how to raise computing performance via memory optimization has now become an important issue Eagle Stream can resolve this bottleneck by extending support to PCIe G5 for the SSD interface technology Compared with its predecessor, PCIe G5 offers twice the data transfer rate Therefore, hyperscalers are eager to adopt SSDs based on this standard As for DRAM, both Eagle Stream and Genoa extend support to the next-generation DDR5 server DRAM, which delivers a faster data transfer rate, making these new server CPUs superior to Ice Lake in all respects NAND Flash and DRAM suppliers have made plans to commence mass production of PCIe G5 SSDs and DDR5 RDIMMs at the end of 2Q22 in anticipation of demand generated by the release of the Eagle Stream and Genoa platforms for these next-gen products For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

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