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2014/05/21
EnergyTrend, green energy research division of TrendForce, and SNEC, the organizer of the world’s largest solar industry exhibition jointly hosted EnergyTrend PVforum 2014 at Kerry Hotel in Shanghai on May 21, 2014 EnergyTrend’s analysts offered in-depth analyses, covering important issues within PV and energy-storage industries Below is the summarized content:
Distributed PV is an important future demand source for the Chinese market, will affect global supply chain development
Global PV installation continued to increase in 2014 Aside for large demands from utility-scale power plants and residential systems; expanding distributed PV systems, ranging from several thousand to a couple million watts, have also become an industry focus that is leading and motivating the foreign solar market
“Global PV demand is 466GW in 2014, in which, Chinese market has the fastest growth In just two years, China’s demand increased from 1GW to more than 10GW to becoming the largest PV market in the world,” said Jason Huang, research manager of EnergyTrend
China is devoted to the development of distributed PV systems mainly to utilize solar power more efficiently Solar plant power capacity in 18 pilot projects installed in 2013 amounted to 749MW and is expected to soar 243% to 1823MW in 2015 Although, China is still exploring promotion, construction, operation, and investment strategies for distributed PV systems, Huang noted distributed PV is still an important future demand source for the Chinese market The system will also impact global PV supply chain development
Wafer price will remain stable in 2Q14, while polysilicon oversupply may occur in 2H14
The recent demand spike is due to the postponement of the US-China anti-dumping and countervailing preliminary ruling to July 24, 2014 In addition, China increased shipment demands, while Japan’s shipments remained high, the Europe’s economy also recovered Based on the uptrend of manufacturers’ monthly revenues, wafer prices will likely be stable in 2Q14
“High-efficiency wafer price will remain at above US$ 10/piece in 2Q14, while mono-si wafer price, with relatively stable supply and demand, will fall between US$12-125/piece,” said Arthur Hsu, research manager of EnergyTrend
Looking into the future, new capacities of polysilicon and module will enter mass production stage in 2H14 In addition, various relevant policies will become clearer including the US-China anti-dumping and countervailing results, which might trigger polysilicon oversupply Moreover, new market demand changes will also affect the price trend in 2H14
CAGR of solar energy storage using lithium battery market will reach 75% from 2014 to 2020
As countries continue to promote energy policies related to sustainable development, energy-storage market demand has increased “The general solar energy storage using lithium battery market will increase from 180mWh in 2014 to 5gWh in 2020, with a CAGR of 75%,” said Duff Lu, research manager of EnergyTrend
Japan began issuing residential energy-storage system subsidies in 2011 It was the first sign of energy-storage systems entering the residential market, rather than for emergency industrial power Later in 2014, Japan introduced another plan to raise energy-storage system subsidies by 60% On the other hand, Germany’s electricity retail price is now higher than FiT, which has declined annually, leading to rising demand for autonomous energy-storage systems The subsidy for energy-storage systems represented 30% of overall subsidies in 2013 Take a battery equipped with solar power capacity of 30kW for example, the battery subsidy would approximately amount to EUR 600/kW (equivalent to US$800/kW)
China established new energy power plants that have integrated wind, photovoltaic, energy storage systems to magnify the country’s lithium-ion battery advantages “By promoting electric vehicles and energy storage systems, Chinese lithium battery industry might become another mainstream industry, following in the footsteps of IT,” added Lu
EnergyTrend PVforum 2014 is sponsored by CHROMA ATE INC
2014/02/10
Mobile DRAM contract prices dropped by 5~10% in January due to the channel clients’ inventory congestion and the new smartphone announcements scheduled for March, according to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce The prices for the first tier manufacturers’ Discrete memory products experienced an estimated 5~10% decline, whereas those for LPDDR1 suffered a relatively larger reduction given the shift of focus towards LPDDR2 and LPDDR3 and the subsequently weakened LPDDR1 demand
Looking at MCP&eMCP, as more pricing adjustments were able to be implemented for these products following the weakened NAND Flash price, the overall decline in their contract prices, depending on their specific densities, ranged from 5~20% Samsung has been noticeably aggressive with the pricing of its TLC eMCP products, and as a result, their price difference with the MLC products is above 5% The shipment volume of the former product category has begun to show further growth as an increasing number of second and first tier clients seek to lower their manufacturing costs and turn their attention towards mid to low-end smartphone models
With the eMCP shortage easing in 4Q13 and Micron starting to provide eMCP 4+4 and 4+8 to first tier clients, the market situation for mobile DRAM --in terms of both its supply and demand--has turned out to be relatively healthy The mobile DRAM market’s supplies, in particular, are anticipated to become increasingly stable as SK Hynix gradually recovers its DRAM production following the September fire accident Taking the aforementioned developments into account, the Mobile DRAM contract prices are projected to undergo various noticeable downward revisions throughout January
In 2Q14, the LPDDR3 demand momentum will likely increase rapidly as Qualcomm releases its LPDDR3 compatible chips to tackle the high-end smartphone and 4G-LTE markets, and as LPDDR3 prices reach close to that of LPDDR2 LPDDR3 will likely replace LPDDR2 as the mainstream product in the market during 2H14
2014/02/10
Mobile DRAM contract prices dropped by 5~10% in January due to the channel clients’ inventory congestion and the new smartphone announcements scheduled for March, according to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce The prices for the first tier manufacturers’ Discrete memory products experienced an estimated 5~10% decline, whereas those for LPDDR1 suffered a relatively larger reduction given the shift of focus towards LPDDR2 and LPDDR3 and the subsequently weakened LPDDR1 demand
Looking at MCP&eMCP, as more pricing adjustments were able to be implemented for these products following the weakened NAND Flash price, the overall decline in their contract prices, depending on their specific densities, ranged from 5~20% Samsung has been noticeably aggressive with the pricing of its TLC eMCP products, and as a result, their price difference with the MLC products is above 5% The shipment volume of the former product category has begun to show further growth as an increasing number of second and first tier clients seek to lower their manufacturing costs and turn their attention towards mid to low-end smartphone models
With the eMCP shortage easing in 4Q13 and Micron starting to provide eMCP 4+4 and 4+8 to first tier clients, the market situation for mobile DRAM --in terms of both its supply and demand--has turned out to be relatively healthy The mobile DRAM market’s supplies, in particular, are anticipated to become increasingly stable as SK Hynix gradually recovers its DRAM production following the September fire accident Taking the aforementioned developments into account, the Mobile DRAM contract prices are projected to undergo various noticeable downward revisions throughout January
In 2Q14, the LPDDR3 demand momentum will likely increase rapidly as Qualcomm releases its LPDDR3 compatible chips to tackle the high-end smartphone and 4G-LTE markets, and as LPDDR3 prices reach close to that of LPDDR2 LPDDR3 will likely replace LPDDR2 as the mainstream product in the market during 2H14
2014/01/16
Worldwide smartphone shipments reached 265 million units in 4Q13, showing a growth of 65% QoQ and 322% YoY, according to TrendForce’s research Thanks to the recent momentum brought about by Apple’s new iPhones, the proportion of high-end smartphone devices shipped jumped from 35% in 3Q13 to 37% in 4Q13, whereas that for the mid to low-range models (ie those whose prices fall within the range of US$450~US$150) remained at approximately 50% For the entire 2013, worldwide smartphone shipments increased by an estimated 335% YoY, ending at approximately 945 million units With smartphone makers ramping up Q4 shipments as a means to fulfill 2013 sales targets and pressures related to inventory digestion mounting, TrendForce projects that the global smartphone shipments will drop by an estimated 51% in 1Q14
Competition between Samsung and Apple Intensifies in High-end Smartphone Market
Despite enjoying noticeable growth in the fourth quarter with an estimated 80 million shipped smartphones units (a 38% increase QoQ), the shipment proportion of Samsung’s high-end devices have shown a noticeable decline over the months In 2H13, the Korean company’s high-end smartphones represented only 38% of its total smartphone shipments, which is down from 50% in 1Q13 The decline is partially attributable to the company’s increased emphasis on mid to low-end smartphones, a decision which caused its profits to be lower than expected in the fourth quarter
Sales of Apple's iPhones, on the other hand, were remarkably impressive due to the company's decision last quarter to promote the iPhone 5S in China On the whole, TrendForce projects the Cupertino giant’s Q4 shipments to be around 50 million units, which represents a growth of 478% QoQ and 112% YoY The iPhone 5S, in particular, accounts for nearly 70% of all of Apple's shipped iPhones (approximately 34 million units), and is partially responsible for the Cupertino company’s success in China, where its market share grew from 5% to 12% With the China Mobile version of the iPhones set to be released in 1Q14, Apple's overall market share in the region can be expected to remain stable
The two noteworthy “dark horses” in the industry who are currently worth paying attention to, according to TrendForce, are SONY and LG Due to its increased efforts in the field of smartphones and hardware components, SONY has been able to boost its domestic market share to over 20% over the years Its product shipments, meanwhile, saw a series of noticeable growth since 1Q13, with the total numbers of smartphones shipped reaching an estimated 12 million units in 4Q13, a 16% QoQ and 62% YoY increase In 3Q13, Sony’s global smartphone market share rose to approximately 5% Benefiting from Google’s Nexus smartphone orders, the other noteworthy dark horse, LG, managed to ship a total of 11 million smartphone units during 4Q13 (2% QoQ and 57% YoY growth) The company's worldwide market share, meanwhile, grew to approximately 42%
Performance of Chinese Smartphone Brands Impacted by Apple and Samsung
Aside from Coolpad, whose smartphones usually cost less than 300 RMB to purchase, all of the other major smartphone brands from the country’s top four have experienced a slight decline in Q3 shipments One possible explanation for this trend is the weaker than expected replenishment effect during the country's recent holiday period Another is the rising popularity of foreign brands such as Samsung and Apple following the release of their updated devices in the third quarter
In the periods ahead, TrendForce believes the influences of domestic brands such as TCL and Xiaomi will be a lot more prominent in the smartphone market Even though its overall shipment levels are not impressive compared to the first tier manufacturers, the quality and product standard of TCL's smartphone devices have already gained official recognition from Alcatel, and are enabling the Chinese company to earn more and more OEM orders and export opportunities For Xiaomi, the main strategy will continue to revolve around releasing products with high price performance ratios and devising novelties that surprise consumers Through effective brand marketing, the company's smartphone shipments have a legitimate shot of eventually approaching 40 million units in 2014
Despite the continuous decline in smartphone entry barriers, TrendForce notes that the majority of the Chinese smartphone manufacturers' impact is still only visible in the mid to low-end market sectors In the high-end and foreign markets, the said manufacturers’ influence is significantly less prominent To exert more impact in the market and gain larger market share, the Chinese manufacturers need to work hard on improving not only their product standards, but also their brand image
2013/11/13
According to TrendForce’s research, Apple's Q3 iPhone shipments reached a total of 338 million units Together, the new iPhone 5S and iPhone 5C account for more than 50% of all of Apple’s shipped iPhones Given that the iPhone 5C's price ended up being a lot higher than expected, its Q4 shipments have been adjusted downwards by 11 million units, and is projected to account for only 24% of the total iPhones shipped during the quarter The iPhone 5S's sales performance, by comparison, turned out to be a lot better than expected; By the end of 4Q13, the said model is likely to account for nearly 70% of all the iPhones shipped The total number of iPhones shipped in 4Q13 is projected to increase by 22% YoY to 46 million units
Shipments of Samsung's newest high-end model, the Galaxy Note 3, rose to 15 million units in 2H13, whereas the shipment proportion of the Korean company's mid-ranged devices reached 60% Sony has been making various product related adjustments ever since it formally entered the smartphone market in 2012 In addition to keeping its own designs for all of its products, the company has targeted its mid-ranged devices to foreign markets, and differentiates its high-end products based on specific hardware specs, camera functionality, and water proof designs As a whole, the shipments of Sony's entire smartphone lines have managed to improve significantly from 1Q13 In Q3 alone, the Japanese company's smartphone shipment grew to over 12 million units, a 106% QoQ and 79% YoY increase Its market share rose to 5% during the same period
LG has been known to utilize and take advantage of the experiences it has accumulated during the days of making feature phones and selling various electronics products In 3Q13, the company's smartphone shipments exceeded 10 million units, showing a growth of 227% QoQ and 93% YoY The 4Q13 shipment of the struggling Taiwanese smartphone company, HTC, is predicted to fall by approximately 162% QoQ and 40% YoY to 52 million units The main reasons for HTC’s shipment decline include its waning market shares in the US and European markets and the fact that it failed to introduce any new products in 4Q13 other than the One Max
Competition Intensifies among Smartphone Manufacturers, Economies of Scale Key to Survive
Looking ahead to 1H14, TrendForce believes that smartphone manufacturers worldwide will face a lot of potential challenges First, for the smartphones makers whose shipments do not exceed 3% of the global total --in other words, those whose shipments do not reach 35 million units-- obtaining upstream components and materials at good prices can be difficult The inability of these manufacturers to adjust or lower their products’ high retail price can be a detriment given the prevalent price-drop trend within the market Taking the said factor into account, it is especially critical that smartphone manufacturers are able to take advantage of the economies of scale and maintain proper cost advantage within the industry
Second, with chip manufacturers such as Qualcomm and Mediatek managing to facilitate the surge in mid to low-end smartphones, the hardware SPEC differences among competing smartphones have become increasingly less noticeable Due to the existence of such a trend, companies hoping to expand in the market need to think hard about how to increase the uniqueness of their products and offer something different
Finally, given that smartphones with mid to low-end prices are generating smaller and smaller margins, the efficiency at which various branded manufacturers are able to assemble their own products have become less impressive than that of large scaled ODMs Whether it is in the area of assembly deployment or manufacturing, professional ODMs are generally more capable of achieving economies of scale Because of this, the small to mid-sized manufacturers that are typically weak in the areas of capital, cost, technology, and market performance are likely to exit the market rapidly TrendForce predicts that many of China's “white box” smartphone manufacturers will be among the first to face such an outcome The gaps left by these manufacturers will be filled by leading brands from China and various other foreign countries
