[News] TSMC Faces Capacity Shortage, Samsung May Provide Advanced Packaging and HBM Services to AMD

According to the Korea Economic Daily. Samsung Electronics’ HBM3 and packaging services have passed AMD’s quality tests. The upcoming Instinct MI300 series AI chips from AMD are planned to incorporate Samsung’s HBM3 and packaging services. These chips, which combine central processing units (CPUs), graphics processing units (GPUs), and HBM3, are expected to be released in the fourth quarter of this year.

Samsung is noted as the sole provider capable of offering advanced packaging solutions and HBM products simultaneously. Originally considering TSMC’s advanced packaging services, AMD had to alter its plans due to capacity constraints.

The surge in demand for high-performance GPUs within the AI landscape benefits not only GPU manufacturers like NVIDIA and AMD, but also propels the development of HBM and advanced packaging.

In the backdrop of the AI trend, AIGC model training and inference require the deployment of AI servers. These servers typically require mid-to-high-end GPUs, with HBM penetration nearing 100% among these GPUs.

Presently, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are the primary HBM manufacturers. According to the latest research by TrendForce, driven by the expansion efforts of these original manufacturers, the estimated annual growth rate of HBM supply in 2024 is projected to reach 105%.

In terms of competitive dynamics, SK Hynix leads with its HBM3 products, serving as the primary supplier for NVIDIA’s Server GPUs. Samsung, on the other hand, focuses on fulfilling orders from other cloud service providers. With added orders from customers, the gap in market share between Samsung and SK Hynix is expected to narrow significantly this year. The estimated HBM market share for both companies is about 95% for 2023 to 2024. However, variations in customer composition might lead to sequential variations in bit shipments.

In the realm of advanced packaging capacity, TSMC’s CoWoS packaging technology dominates as the main choice for AI server chip suppliers. Amidst strong demand for high-end AI chips and HBM, TrendForce estimates that TSMC’s CoWoS monthly capacity could reach 12K by the end of 2023.

With strong demand driven by NVIDIA’s A100 and H100 AI Server requirements, demand for CoWoS capacity is expected to rise by nearly 50% compared to the beginning of the year. Coupled with the growth in high-end AI chip demand from companies like AMD and Google, the latter half of the year could experience tighter CoWoS capacity. This robust demand is expected to continue into 2024, potentially leading to a 30-40% increase in advanced packaging capacity, contingent on equipment readiness.

(Photo credit: Samsung)