[News] Continued Reduction in NAND Flash Production, Price Recovery Emerging

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According to a report from Taiwan’s TechNews, the NAND Flash industry is gradually recovering in pricing as suppliers continue to reduce production. However, achieving a healthy market balance in terms of supply, demand, and pricing is expected to require more time and effort.

Regarding the memory market situation, TrendForce indicates that the reduction strategies for DRAM and NAND Flash by memory manufacturers are expected to continue into 2024. This is especially evident for the heavily loss-making NAND Flash segment. Despite TrendForce’s projection that visibility into consumer electronics market demand for the first half of 2024 remains uncertain, and with general server capital expenditures still weakened by AI server displacement, the memory market is anticipated to exhibit relatively weak demand.

Yet, TrendForce states, due to the low base in 2023 and certain memory product prices having reached comparatively low levels, DRAM and NAND Flash are forecasted to experience year-over-year growth rates of 13% and 16%, respectively.

On the other hand, even with demand picking up, effectively destocking and restoring supply-demand equilibrium in 2024 hinges on suppliers exercising restraint over production capacity. Once suppliers manage their production capacity appropriately, there’s a possibility for a rebound in the average memory prices.

Nomura Securities notes in their report that since late August 2023, NAND Flash prices have seen double-digit increases. This has largely resulted from the escalating scale of NAND Flash production cuts and the downstream inventory for smartphones and related components being low. Additionally, different brands have been launching new products over the past few months.

Citigroup’s recent update on global memory average selling price outlook reveals significant reductions in production volumes, including major memory manufacturers like Samsung. Memory manufacturers are expected to prevent further decline in memory average prices through substantial production cuts, as further decline could threaten the cash cost level of NAND Flash. Therefore, Samsung’s meaningful reduction in memory product production is expected to contribute to stabilizing the average memory selling price in 2023 and laying the groundwork for a stable recovery in the average memory market selling price throughout 2024.