[News] NVIDIA’s Q3 Forecast Fails to Impress, while It Claims Blackwell to Bring Several Billion Dollars Revenue in Q4

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AI chip NVIDIA provided financial guidance for the third quarter, estimating its quarterly revenue to reach USD 32.5 billion, with a fluctuation of plus or minus 2%. The figure, though beats market expectations in general, still falls short of the market’s most optimistic forecast of USD 37.9 billion, sparking concerns that its explosive growth is waning.

On the other hand, regarding whether NVIDIA’s next-gen AI chip, Blackwell, faces delay, the tech giant notes that it shipped samples this quarter, and has made an adjustment to the product to make it more efficient to manufacture, according to a report by CNBC.

Citing CFO Colette Kress, the report states that in the fourth quarter, “we expect to ship several billion dollars in Blackwell revenue.”

Q3 Guidance Somehow Fails to Impress the Market

According to NVIDIA’s guidance, the adjusted gross margin in the third quarter is expected to be 75%, with a fluctuation of plus or minus 50 basis points, slightly below the market expectation of 75.5%. The company’s gross margin for the second quarter was 75.7%, with an average expectation of 75.8%.

This quarter’s outlook, though being solid, somehow fails to impress the market. The AI chip manufacturer has been a major beneficiary as companies rush to upgrade their data centers to handle AI software, and its sales forecast has become a barometer of this AI surge.

A report by the Economic Daily raises concerns that though the company has had several consecutive quarters of outstanding performance, most of its growth comes from a small number of customers. For instance, about 40% of its revenue comes from large data center operators, such as Google and Meta.

Although these tech giants have been investing heavily on AI, there are concerns that the scale of the infrastructure being built may exceed current demand, which could lead to a bubble.

Blackwell Update: Obstacles Removed?

There were concerns that there might be design issues with Blackwell, which might cause the shipment to delay. According to the report by the Economic Daily, NVIDIA admitted that it has encountered difficulties in the production process, but stated that they are implementing reforms to improve yield rates.

A report by Wccftech states that NVIDIA has confirmed that it has “implemented a change” to the Blackwell GPU mask produced at TSMC using the 4NP process node, which is expected to further enhance production yield. As this change is not a significant architectural redesign, the product remains on schedule for the ramp to start in the fourth quarter and continuing into FY2026.

According to Wccftech, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang reiterates that “Hopper demand remains strong, and the anticipation for Blackwell is incredible.” CFO Colette Kress further states that in the fourth quarter, “we expect to ship several billion dollars in Blackwell revenue.”

Q2 Performance Still Beats Market Expectations

In the second quarter, which ended on July 28, NVIDIA’s revenue was USD 30.04 billion, surpassing the market expectation of USD 28.7 billion. The annual growth rate for this quarter was 122%, marking the third consecutive quarter with a growth rate exceeding 200%. Net income for the quarter more than doubled from USD 6.18 billion, or 25 cents per share, a year ago to USD 16.6 billion, or 67 cents per share. Adjusted earnings per share were 68 cents, beating the market expectation of 64 cents.

It is worth noting that NVIDIA’s data center business revenue in the second quarter increased significantly by 154% YoY to $USD 26.3 billion, accounting for 88% of total sales. Its gaming revenue also grew 16% year over year to USD 2.9 billion, exceeding the expected USD 2.7 billion, which the company attributes to an increase in shipments of PC gaming cards and game console SoCs, reportedly chips for Nintendo’s game consoles.

The company also announced the approval of a USD 50 billion share buyback program.

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(Photo credit: NVIDIA)