[News] Market Demand Falls Short of Expectations; Midstream and Downstream Prices Remain Under Pressure

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Polysilicon

Transaction Overview: The recent round of deals has mostly been completed. After polysilicon manufacturers firmly maintained their prices, transaction volumes shrank. The ingot manufacturers, facing difficulties in passing costs downstream, are resistant to price hikes on the raw material side. While leading manufacturers generally agree on price increases for N-type silicon rods, weak demand raises uncertainty over whether these price hikes can be sustained.

Supply and Demand: In Q4, uncertainty in the polysilicon supply increases. Whether the current trend of reduced production will continue depends on whether polysilicon manufacturers maintain their scheduled maintenance and production cuts. If new capacity of leading manufacturers comes online on schedule, the downward trend in polysilicon supply may be reversed. On the demand side, challenges like inventory clearance and financial losses create significant obstacles for ingot manufacturers to increase their procurement. In the short term, the support for polysilicon appears pessimistic.

Price Trends: The price of polysilicon has stabilized after a period of rebound, with leading manufacturers setting N-type silicon rod prices around 41 CNY/kg. However, second- and third-tier manufacturers have weaker pricing power and are generally maintaining stable prices. Considering the current industrial silicon costs, leading manufacturers’ prices are now close to covering their cash costs, with profit margins on the verge of turning positive.

Wafers

Supply and Demand: The supply and demand for different wafer sizes may diverge in Q4. The capacity for 210R wafers is showing a clear upward trend, and procurement demand for this size is expected to increase accordingly. Coupled with inventory adjustments, the supply-demand relationship for 210R is improving. For 182mm wafers, however, the inventory remains a key obstacle to supply-demand balance, with the N-type M10 price hovering around 1.08-1.10 CNY/piece. Some second- and third-tier manufacturers, eager to recover their cash flow, have offered prices below 1.08 CNY/piece for more shipments.

Price Trends: Prices for all wafer types have remained stable this week. Looking ahead, wafer supply is expected to continue shrinking, and production cuts are anticipated to intensify during the National Day holiday. Therefore, the supply-demand balance for 210R wafers may be the first to stabilize.

Cells

Supply and Demand: Ahead of the holiday, demand from the module side may weaken, forcing solar cell manufacturers to lower their productions. For second- and third-tier solar cell manufacturers, shrinking orders and ongoing losses increase the risk of being phased out from the market. Demand for 210mm cells is growing, and its supply-demand is not yet surplus. Some cell manufacturers are accelerating production cuts and technical upgrades in hopes of capturing a premium from short-term supply-demand balance.

Price Trends: Some cell sizes saw price reductions this week. The N-type M10 price has been adjusted to a mainstream transaction range of 0.270 CNY/W, while the N-type G12R has remained stable at around 0.280 CNY/W.

Modules

Supply and Demand: As the holiday approaches, module manufacturers are expected to lower productions due to weak demand. Module manufacturers are cautious with their production plans to avoid inventory buildup. Recently, price competition has resurfaced, and with limited demand, module manufacturers have been cutting prices to secure more orders.

Price Trends: Module prices have been reduced across the board this week. Bifacial M10-TOPCon modules from leading manufacturers have been reduced to the 0.68-0.73 CNY/W range, while some smaller manufacturers, seeking to more shipments, have dropped prices to around 0.65 CNY/W. For bifacial G12-HJT modules, leading manufacturers’ prices are concentrated in the 0.75-0.83 CNY/W range, with a slight reduction in prices of BC products.