[News] U.S. Services PMI Hits Nearly Two-Year High in September as Consumer Demand Remains Strong

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U.S. Services PMI (NMI) continued to expand in September, according to data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on October 3. The NMI rose from 51.5 in August to 54.9 in September, reaching its highest level since February 2023.

Breaking down the sub-indices, the Business Activity Index increased from 53.3 last month to 59.9, while the New Orders Index climbed from 53.0 to 59.4. Both indices have expanded for the third consecutive month, with gains exceeding 6%, driving the overall increase in the NMI and signaling that demand for U.S. services remains robust.

However, the Employment and Supplier Deliveries indices showed mixed performance. The Employment Index fell from 50.2 last month to 48.1, ending two consecutive months of expansion and returning to contraction territory. Surveyed firms reported difficulties in hiring new workers, resulting in slower employee growth, while job vacancies and layoffs remained largely unchanged, aligning with recent signs of a slowing labor market.

On the other hand, the Supplier Deliveries Index rose from 49.6 to 52.1, indicating that stronger business activity and rising orders have caused suppliers to slow their delivery times.

In other indices, the Prices Index rose from 57.3 last month to 59.4, reflecting strong demand, marking the 88th consecutive month of expansion. Meanwhile, the Inventories Index increased from 52.9 to 59.1, suggesting that businesses are stocking up in anticipation of the upcoming holiday season and in response to recent port labor strikes.

Overall, the September NMI data indicate that U.S. consumer demand remains strong. The report notes that the NMI corresponds to an annualized real GDP growth rate of 1.9%.

This contrasts sharply with the Manufacturing PMI data released the day before, which showed a reading of 47.2 for September, marking the sixth consecutive month of contraction. The gap between the two sectors’ PMI readings has widened to 7.7 points, the largest divergence since late 2019, underscoring the growing disparity in U.S. economic growth trends.