[News] Key Focus This Week – U.S. CPI and the Fed’s Outlook on the Labor Market and Economic Prospects

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Last week, Chinese equities continued to reflect the positive effects of easing policies, with the CSI 300 Index surging nearly 9%.In contrast, the U.S. S&P 500 Index saw a modest increase of only 0.22% due to uneven gains across sectors. In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year and 2-year Treasury note rose as expectations for rate cuts receded, narrowing the 10-year to 2-year yield spread to approximately 5 basis points. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index climbed to around the 102 level.

 

Key Economic Data Review for Last Week:

China PMI: China’s manufacturing PMI for September stood at 49.8 (previous: 49.5), marking the fifth consecutive month of contraction. Among the sub-indices, only the production index returned to expansion territory, while the other indices remained in contraction, indicating that China’s overall manufacturing sector continues to face challenges. Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing PMI came in at 50 (previous: 50.3), ending a two-month rebound. All major indices declined in September, reflecting weak consumer demand, which remained subdued even after a brief summer boost.

 

U.S. ISM PMI: The U.S. manufacturing PMI for September was 47.2 (previous: 47.4), remaining in contraction for the sixth consecutive month. While the new orders index and production index improved slightly to 46.1 (previous: 44.6) and 49.8 (unchanged), they remained in contraction, reflecting restrictive financial conditions and uncertainty around the upcoming presidential election, which continued to dampen business investment. In contrast, the services PMI increased to 54.9 (previous: 51.5), reaching its highest level since February 2023. Key sub-indices, such as the business activity index and new orders index, rose to 59.9 (previous: 53.3) and 59.4 (previous: 53.0), respectively, marking the third consecutive month of expansion, with both indices showing gains of more than 6%, highlighting strong demand for U.S. services.

 

U.S. Employment Situation: The U.S. unemployment rate for September fell to 4.1%,  better than the previous month and the market expectation of 4.2%. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 254,000 (previous: 159,000), significantly surpassing market expectations of 142,000. Employment growth in September was mainly driven by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 78,000 jobs, and the education and healthcare sectors, which added 81,000 jobs. Additionally, initial jobless claims have shown a downward trend recently, indicating some improvement in the labor market slowdown.

 

 

Key Economic Data Review for This Week:

U.S. CPI (October 10): The annual growth rate of the August CPI was 2.5% (previous: 2.9%), with a monthly growth rate of 0.2% (unchanged). Core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained stable at an annual growth rate of 3.2% (unchanged), with a monthly growth of 0.3% (previous: 0.2%). Both CPI and core CPI growth rates were the lowest since February 2021. According to the Cleveland Fed, September’s CPI is expected to decrease to 2.25% (August: 2.56%), and core CPI is projected to fall to 3.11% (August: 3.21%).

 

FOMC Minutes from September Meeting (October 10): Recent data indicate that inflationary pressures have gradually eased, while the labor market shows no significant signs of deterioration. The focus of the minutes will be on the Federal Reserve’s outlook on the labor market and the economy following the recent 50-basis point rate cut.

 

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (October 11): The final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for September was 70.1, up 2.2 points from August, marking a five-month high. The report highlighted growing consumer optimism about the future, with more consumers expecting a Harris victory in the upcoming election. Inflation expectations for one year ahead fell to 2.7% (previous: 2.8%), while the five-year inflation expectation edged up to 3.1% (previous: 3.0%). The market expects the consumer sentiment index to remain around the 70 level in October.