[Insights] Module Production Sees Recovery, Upstream Sectors Still Engaged in a Power Struggle

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Polysilicon

In the polysilicon market, post-holiday trading sentiment remains subdued, with overall deliveries primarily focusing on delivering previous orders. After the recent price hikes for polysilicon, trading activity has been tepid. Ingot manufacturers are mainly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, purchasing only as needed.

Polysilicon output is expected to see a slight rebound of nearly 2% this month, reaching about 130,000 to 140,000 tons. The demand for polysilicon may decrease further, and surplus supply could potentially become more serious this month.

Polysilicon prices are likely to stabilize this month under manufacturers’ firm stance, with future observations focusing on capacity adjustments and the impact of pre-stocking for the polysilicon futures market on the supply-demand balance.

Wafers

On the supply side, wafer production continues its downward trend month-on-month, estimated to be in the 48-49 GW range. On the demand side, the downward trend in cell production persists, and with module manufacturers continuously forcing prices down, the price pressure on wafers remains high, offering limited support.

The demand for 182N wafers has turned downward, and the proportion of production in this category has also been reduced this month. Meanwhile, the share of 210RN wafers in total output has increased significantly, with 210 wafers (R-type) accounting for nearly 20%. The gap caused by adjustments in downstream product sizes is rapidly being filled, leading to an oversupply of wafer and further price pressure on wafer manufacturers.

Cells

Cell production is expected to decrease by 4-5% month-on-month, with cell production adjusted down to 50-51 GW. This trend of production divergence is expected to intensify in Q4. On the demand side, major manufacturers have seen a slight recovery in orders due to the booming ground-mount installations, but overall module production recovery remains limited. The intense price competition in the module sector makes it difficult to support cell prices.

Prices for certain sizes have been revised downward this week, with P-type M10 and G12 both falling to RMB 0.27/W, while N-type G12R saw a faster production surplus, dropping to RMB 0.27/W as well.

Modules

Module production this month shows divergence. Overall, monthly production is up by 3-4%, reaching 49-50 GW. On the demand side, centralized PV installations have led to a slight recovery in orders for some manufacturers, but there has been no clear recovery in distributed PV projects. Overseas, inventory backlog issues in Europe are intensifying, leading to another month-on-month decline in module prices.

Prices for all types of modules remained stable this week. For bifacial M10-TOPCon modules, major manufacturers have adjusted their pricing range to RMB 0.65-0.73/W, while smaller manufacturers are offloading inventory at lower prices around RMB 0.65/W to return cash flow. For bifacial G12-HJT modules, mainstream pricing is concentrated in the RMB 0.75-0.83/W range.

PV Glass

On the supply side, production is expected to decrease month-on-month due to line maintenance and kiln closures. On the demand side, September saw relatively low stocking levels among module manufacturers. With the expected increase in module production post-holiday, stocking activity should pick up. However, rising inventories and a continued decline in upstream soda ash prices will continue to exert significant pressure on PV glass prices.