[News] China’s Retail and Production Shows Early Signs of Recovery Despite Lukewarm GDP Growth

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China’s monthly economic data in September showed signs of improvement, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics on October 18.

In terms of consumption, retail sales grew by 3.2% year-over-year in September, up by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month and exceeding market expectations of 2.5%. This growth was mainly driven by household electronics, which surged by 20.5% year-over-year, up 17.1 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting the continued impact of China’s “trade-in” policy. Auto sales in September rose by 0.4% year-over-year, an increase of 7.7 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting the industry’s entry into the peak sales season of “golden September, silver October.”

 

In the industrial sector, industrial output increased by 5.4% year-over-year in September, an improvement of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and surpassing market expectations of 4.6%. High-tech manufacturing continued to drive overall industrial growth, with a year-over-year increase of 10.1%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting China’s focus on high-quality development and new productivity policies.

 

In terms of investment, cumulative fixed-asset investment grew by 3.4% year-over-year in September, on par with the previous month, and slightly above market expectations of 3.3%. Industrial investment increased by 12.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous period, while infrastructure investment grew by 4.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous period. Additionally, both private and foreign investment continued to decline, signaling weaker business confidence in future prospects.

 

Overall, the September data suggests early signs of improvement in China’s domestic economy. However, the latest GDP data reveals that real GDP grew by 4.6% year-over-year in the third quarter, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter. Cumulative GDP growth for the first three quarters stood at 4.8%, still below the annual target of 5%.

Despite the Chinese government’s announcement of a series of monetary easing measures in late September, the ongoing slowdown in economic growth indicates that the recovery is still in its early stages. The government will need to expedite the implementation of large-scale fiscal policies to further stimulate economic growth.