[News] China Officially Launches National Subsidy for Smartphones: Will the Display Panel Industry Benefit?

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In 2025, China has introduced a new round of “national subsidies,” further expanding the scope of its policy. In addition to continuing subsidies for televisions, PCs, and other electronics, products such as smartphones, tablets, and smartwatches have been included in the subsidy program as of January 20.

As a core component of these devices, display panels are expected to benefit from increased demand, driving growth in shipment volumes and prices.

Smartphones and Tablets Included in the National Subsidy Program for the First Time

Taking smartphones as an example, as of 11 a.m. on January 23, JD.com has rolled out digital product purchase subsidies in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Hainan, Chongqing, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Hubei, Hunan, Xiamen, Shaanxi, Yunnan, Jilin, Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Heilongjiang, with activities in other cities gradually launching as well.

According to JD.com, within the first 12 hours of the subsidy policy launch on January 20, smartphone sales in the covered provinces and cities increased by 200% compared to the previous period. Tablet sales grew by 300%, and sales of children’s smartwatches rose by 100%.

Under the smartphone subsidy program, individual consumers purchasing smartphones priced at no more than 6,000 yuan can receive a subsidy of up to RMB 500, equivalent to 15% of the sales price. This policy sends a strong signal to panel manufacturers, spurring demand for small-to-medium-sized OLED and LCD panels.

With smartphones now included in the subsidy program, the growth of shipments in the small-sized panel market is expected to accelerate.

TrendForce notes that AMOLED panels have become the mainstream display technology for smartphones, with penetration rates expected to grow by 2% to 3% annually, reaching 68% by 2028.

As major smartphone brands increasingly adopt AMOLED panels, shipments are expected to exceed 870 million units by 2025, representing an annual growth rate of 3.2%.

A Positive Outlook for the TV Panel Market

Focusing on the TV panel market, demand has grown significantly since 2024 with the implementation of trade-in policies.

TrendForce’s research shows that global TV shipments in Q3 2024 reached 52.33 million units, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 9.6% and a year-over-year increase of 0.5%. Global TV demand in Q4 2024 is projected to grow by 4.2% quarter-over-quarter to 54.5 million units, a year-over-year increase of 2.2%.

For 2024, annual TV shipments are expected to reach 197.51 million units, a 1.1% increase, marking the end of five consecutive years of declining shipments.

TrendForce also highlights that China’s trade-in subsidies for home appliances have boosted the sales of large-sized Mini LED TVs, pushing shipments to 6.75 million units in 2024, a 65% year-over-year increase and 5.4% higher than previously estimated.

Following the traditional sales peak at the end of 2024, the TV market is further supported by the “national subsidy” policy, injecting vitality into large-sized panel demand during the traditionally slow Q1 2025 season.

TrendForce states that as of January, China’s trade-in subsidy policy remains in effect through 2025, stabilizing TV inventory demand. Demand for ultra-large-sized panels has been particularly robust. Additionally, recent reports of a shortage in polarizer production capacity have given panel manufacturers more leverage to increase TV panel prices.

TrendForce currently forecasts an increase in TV panel prices in January 2025.

Improved Performance for Multiple Panel Manufacturers in 2024

Driven by the trade-in and consumption-boosting policies, the consumer electronics industry is gradually recovering, leading to a rebound in the upstream panel industry. Combined with production control and price stabilization strategies implemented by panel manufacturers in early 2024, panel prices have stabilized and are on the rise, resulting in significant improvements in corporate performance.

For example, BOE is expected to turn profitable in 2024, while Tianma Microelectronics, Everdisplay Optronics, and InfoVision Optoelectronics have significantly reduced their losses.

Summary

The new round of “national subsidies” in 2025 presents fresh opportunities for the panel industry, driving demand growth, price recovery, and technological innovation. Supported by favorable policies, the panel industry is poised to achieve a comprehensive recovery and enter a new phase of high-quality development.

However, the industry must remain vigilant about potential risks such as overcapacity and uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment. Moving forward, panel manufacturers should focus on technological innovation and market expansion while strengthening collaboration with upstream and downstream partners to achieve sustainable growth.

Against this backdrop, on February 26-27, 2025, TrendForce will host the DTS 2025 New Display Industry Seminar at the JW Marriott Hotel Shenzhen.

This two-day seminar will serve as an important platform for industry experts and senior analysts to discuss the latest market trends and developments in micro, small-to-medium, and ultra-large display technologies. It is expected to provide new perspectives and momentum for the panel industry, further driving the display sector into the future.

(Photo credit: Huawei)