News
Despite NVIDIA’s strong Q4 earnings and upbeat Q1 outlook, supply chain sources suggest renewed concerns over potential CoWoS order cuts, with reports indicating a reduction in advanced packaging orders at foundries.
According to Commercial Times, as NVIDIA’s Hopper GPU approaches the end of its lifecycle, advanced packaging orders may gradually decline, with the market looking to the next-generation GB300 to revive demand.
The report notes that TSMC once considered outsourcing front-end CoWoS-S/R orders due to capacity constraints but never finalized a deal. With NVIDIA’s Hopper GPU nearing its end of life, the urgency has faded, and packaging orders are expected to taper off first. The exact scale of the order cuts, though, remains uncertain, as per Commercial Times.
On the other hand, TSMC’s momentum at advanced nodes remains unfazed. As NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang noted earlier that the Blackwell demand remains “amazing,” sources cited by the report indicate that TSMC’s 5/4nm capacity is fully loaded, with NVIDIA recently ramping up orders for both the B-series and RTX 50 series.
However, analysts cited by the report also note that this surge in production is partly to offset the loss of tens of thousands of wafers due to the 6.4 earthquake in January.
Based on a preliminary assessment, TSMC estimated related earthquake losses to be approximately NT$5.3 billion (roughly USD 161.4 million), net of insurance claim, and will recognize it in the first quarter of 2025, according to its press release.
More to Expect from GTC
Despite concerns over NVIDIA’s CoWoS order cuts, the Commercial Times remains optimistic about the company’s momentum, noting the upcoming launch of Blackwell Ultra, GB300, and more at GTC in mid-March. Supply chain sources cited by the report indicate that they have received GB300’s initial specs and expect a faster rollout, building on GB200’s experience.
Meanwhile, NVIDIA’s upcoming Rubin GPU will reportedly leverage TSMC’s 3nm and 5nm nodes, and be packaged with eight 12-hi HBM4 stacks, which is expected to give the market a much-needed boost, the report notes.
Based on the current timeline, Rubin’s mass production could begin in early 2026, with tape-out expected by mid-2025, the report adds.
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(Photo credit: NVIDIA)
