[News] The Humanoid Robotics Race: U.S. Leads in AI, China Dominates Supply Chains—Who Will Prevail?

“Agentic AI and Physical AI will be at the core of the next industrial revolution.” NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang declared in his keynote speech at CES 2025, outlining the key focus of industry development in the coming years.

According to TechNews, as the U.S. and China showcase their advancements in robotics and aggressively invest in generative AI, general-purpose robots and humanoid robots have become the focal point of the technological race between China and the U.S..

The early robotics market was dominated by companies from Europe, the U.S., and Japan. The “Big Four” industrial robotics giants—Switzerland’s ABB, Germany’s KUKA, and Japan’s Fanuc and Yaskawa—have long controlled more than half of the global market.

However, as noted by TechNews, shifting industry dynamics and China’s formidable manufacturing capabilities have propelled the country into a key player in the robotics race.

With strong government backing, China has installed the largest number of industrial robots worldwide for 11 consecutive years. Even the Big Four industrial robotics companies heavily rely on Chinese-made components, as the report highlights.

U.S. vs. China: The Battle for Humanoid Robot Dominance

According to the latest research from TrendForce, with major robotics manufacturers gradually achieving mass production by 2025, the global humanoid robot market is expected to reach nearly USD 4 billion by 2028.

China, in addition to leading the world with the largest number of industrial robot installations, is also a global leader in humanoid robot production, as the report notes.

As highlighted by TechNews, China’s rapid progress in humanoid robotics is driven by its strong supply chain, large domestic market, and government support. The report also notes that China’s national initiatives like Made in China 2025 and the 14th Five-Year Plan have prioritized the robotics industry for development.

U.S. Robotics Strategy: Advancing AI and High-End Applications

Meanwhile, TechNews points out that the U.S. and China are taking distinct approaches to robotics development.

The report indicates that the U.S. is prioritizing high-end robotics, with government-backed projects focusing on intelligent robots, autonomous systems, space robotics, and military applications.

In the humanoid robotics sector, companies like Tesla and Boston Dynamics are leading the way, primarily targeting manufacturing, warehousing, and logistics, as the report notes.

Currently, as the report highlights, American companies are focusing on machine learning training and digital simulations, while their robotic designs emphasize collaborative robots, mobile robotic arms, and humanoid robots.

Notable examples include Digit by Agility Robotics and Apollo by Apptronik, both of which are planned for market release, as the report indicates. Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, is also scheduled for mass production between 2025 and 2027.

According to TrendForce, the U.S. excels in AI training and benefits from a well-developed robotics AI ecosystem. U.S. tech giants like Qualcomm and NVIDIA are deeply involved in humanoid robotics, providing end-to-end computing solutions with processing capabilities reaching up to 150 TOPS. This comprehensive AI ecosystem strengthens the U.S. position in humanoid robotics development.

China’s Robust Supply Chain Fuels Humanoid Robotics Growth

Compared to the U.S., China’s humanoid robot market is more focused on entertainment and educational applications, requiring less advanced technical specifications than its American counterparts, as the report indicates.

Meanwhile, China’s vast domestic market provides a strong foundation for industry growth.

As highlighted by the report, China has extended its dominance in manufacturing to the robotics sector, backed by a robust supply chain.

On the complete robot system front, Chinese companies such as Unitree Robotics, Fourier, and UBTECH have already established a presence, as noted by the report.

In the motion control segment, which accounts for approximately 55% of a robot’s total cost, numerous Chinese companies have entered key component markets, including coreless motors, 6D force-torque sensors, and harmonic drives, as mentioned by the report

Additionally, Tuopu, Sanhua Intelligent Controls, Hengli Hydraulic, Seenpin, and Zhaowei not only ensure a stable supply for China’s domestic market but have also secured positions in the supply chains of major international companies or entered the sample testing phase for international companies.

According to TrendForce, while manufacturing humanoid robot components still faces significant technological barriers, the supply chain will increasingly overlap with those of smart devices, industrial robots, and drones. Suppliers with a strong presence in these sectors will have a competitive edge in entering the humanoid robotics market.

Who Will Dominate the Humanoid Robotics Race in the Next Five Years—China or the U.S.?

In the short term, the global humanoid robotics industry remains in its early stages, with different companies focusing on various application scenarios.

According to TrendForce Research Manager P.K. Tseng, the key distinction between humanoid robots and other mechanical products lies in AI technology, with algorithms and data being the core factors. This, he notes, is an area that China cannot fully replicate in a short period.

However, Tseng believes that from a long-term perspective, China’s strength lies in strong government support and a higher tolerance for trial and error in the market. In contrast, U.S. companies tend to focus on developing high-precision, high-specification humanoid robots, refining their technology before bringing products to market.

While the ultimate outcome of this robotics race remains uncertain, China’s manufacturing dominance will play a crucial role. Tseng explains that in terms of humanoid robot shipments, China benefits from a complete supply chain, allowing for mass production and exports without reliance on foreign components or technologies.

Tseng also notes that as China’s domestic AI chip and computing power technologies advance, future product pricing and applications will become more diverse, positioning China as a strong competitor in the mid-range humanoid robot market.

According to TrendForce, the humanoid robotics race between China and the U.S. mirrors the broader AI competition, where high-capital and low-cost approaches define their respective strengths. TrendForce suggests that over the next five years, commercial humanoid robots will exhibit significant price differences and application segmentation, while regional ecosystems will drive localized production and industrial growth.

For more information on robot reports and market data from TrendForce, please visit https://www.trendforce.com.tw/research/category/Emerging%20Technologies/robot

Read more

• NVIDIA Unveils Open-Source Isaac GR00T N1 to Optimize AI Training, Securing a Leading Position in Humanoid Robotics, Says TrendForce
• Humanoid Robots to Become the Next US-China Battleground, with Price Differentiation and Tiered Applications as Emerging Trends, Says TrendForce

(Photo credit: UBTECH)