[News] U.S. CPI Continued to Decline in September, Market Holds Steady on Rate Cut Expectations

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The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) continued to decline in September, according to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on October 10. The year-over-year CPI growth rate was 2.4%, down 0.1% from the previous month. Although slightly above the market expectation of 2.3%, it remains the lowest level since February 2021. The month-over-month increase was 0.2%, unchanged from the previous month and slightly higher than the market forecast of 0.1%.

Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-over-year, marginally exceeding both the previous month’s figure and market expectations of 3.2%.

 

The monthly increase was primarily driven by rising prices in apparel, medical services, and transportation services. On a positive note, the rent and owners’ equivalent rent, which have been key factors slowing the CPI decline, showed signs of easing. On a year-over-year basis, rent inflation grew by 4.8% (down from 5.0% in the prior month), while owners’ equivalent rent increased by 5.2% (down from 5.4%), both continuing their gradual deceleration.

(Source: BLS, TrendForce)

 

Additionally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the latest weekly jobless claims. Initial claims reached 258,000, an increase of 33,000 from the previous week, while continued claims rose to 1,861,000, up by 42,000 from the prior month. Despite the rise in claims, the numbers remain within a healthy range, indicating that the labor market is still in balance.

 

Following the release of this data, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts remained unchanged, with projections for two cuts this year and four more in 2024.