[News] Samsung Rumored to Cut HBM Production Target by 10% by End of 2025 amid HBM3e Delays

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Though has yet to disclose the actual progress on its 12-Hi HBM3e verification with AI chip giant NVIDIA, Samsung is rumored to lower its target for the maximum production capacity (CAPA) of HBM by the end of 2025, which echoes the speculation on delays of HBM3e mass production for key customers, according to Korean media outlet ZDNet.

It is worth noting that the struggling memory giant reportedly plans to lower the capacity target by over 10%, from the initial monthly goal of 200,000 units to 170,000 units by the end of next year, ZDNet suggests, as it now takes a relatively cautious approach to facility investment plans.

According to the report, as of the second quarter, in order to narrow the gap with competitors such as SK hynix, Samsung had planned to increase HBM production capacity to 140,000–150,000 units per month by the end of this year, and up to 200,000 units per month by the end of next year.

At the Q2 earnings call in late July, Samsung disclosed an ambitious roadmap for its HBM products. According to a previous report from Business Korea, Samsung expects the share of HBM3e chips within its HBMs to surpass the mid-10 percent range in the third quarter, and speedily grow to 60% by the fourth quarter. The company also projects its HBM sales to increase three to five times in the second half of 2024.

However, the scenario has changed a few months later. Citing a source familiar with the situation, the report by ZDNet notes that Samsung has decided to slow down the pace of facility investments due to the underperformance of its HBM business. Further discussions on investments will only proceed once its HBM3e supply for NVIDIA is confirmed, the source indicates.

According to the analysis by TrendForce, achieving stable yields for HBM3 and HBM3e 8-Hi products required at least two quarters of learning in previous generations. Based on this precedent, the learning curve for HBM3e 12-Hi is unlikely to shorten significantly, especially with the rapid market shift toward the 12-Hi version.

Furthermore, key products such as NVIDIA’s B200 and GB200, as well as AMD’s MI325 and MI350, will adopt HBM3e 12-Hi. The high cost of these systems will also demand strict stability, complicating mass production and adding another layer of uncertainty.

Ahead of its Q3 earnings call, Samsung already warned its profit would fall short of market expectations, while issuing an apology for the disappointing performance. Samsung’s operating profit for the third quarter is expected to reach 9.1 trillion won, which is below the expected 10 trillion won.

Another report by The Korea Times notes that the market expected SK hynix to see a substantial increase in operating profit driven by strong HBM demand, potentially outpacing Samsung’s semiconductor division.

To boost its competitiveness in the semiconductor industry, Samsung intends to assign research and development staff directly to its manufacturing facilities. This initiative seeks to enhance communication and collaboration with on-site production teams, according to a report by SmBom.

Read more

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(Photo credit: Samsung)