[News] IMF Lowers Global Growth Forecast for Next Year, Reflecting Intensified Downside Risks

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According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October report, global economic growth is expected to reach 3.2% in both 2024 and 2025, with the 2025 forecast being revised down by 0.1 percentage points compared to the July forecast.

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United States

Breaking it down by major economies, the U.S. economy is projected to grow by 2.8% in 2024, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points from the July estimate, driven by strong consumption and non-residential investment. In 2025, as fiscal policy tightens and the labor market cools, leading to weaker consumption, growth is expected to slow to 2.2%, though this remains 0.3 percentage points higher than the July forecast.

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Euro area

In the euro area, economic growth is expected to slightly rebound to 0.8% in 2024 due to improved exports. In 2025, growth is forecast to rise further to 1.2%, driven by real wage increases and gradually easing policies. However, these forecasts have been revised down by 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, compared to the July estimates, primarily reflecting weakness in Italy and Germany’s manufacturing sectors.

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China

In Asia, China’s economic growth is forecast to slow to 4.8% in 2024, down 0.2 percentage points from the July forecast, due to weaker consumer demand amid real estate sector challenges. However, strong export performance is offering some support. For 2025, China’s growth is expected to slow further to 4.5%, in line with the July forecast.

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Japan

Japan’s economy is expected to grow by 0.3% in 2024, a downward revision of 0.4 percentage points compared to the July forecast, reflecting supply chain disruptions caused by data falsification in the automotive sector. However, with rising real wages expected to drive consumption, growth is forecast to rebound to 1.1% in 2025, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage points from the July forecast.

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The IMF also noted that downside risks to the global economic outlook are more pronounced compared to the July report. These risks include the possibility of tighter-than-expected monetary policies, increased financial market volatility, rising commodity prices due to geopolitical tensions, a deeper downturn in China’s real estate sector, and an increase in trade protectionism.

(Source: IMF, TrendForce)