One of NVIDIA’s major challenges currently may be convincing the market that it is capable of sustaining the rapid growth, as the largest company in the world by market cap fails to impress the investors with its fourth-quarter guidance. One of the main concerns lying ahead for NVIDIA, obviously, would be the risks from President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed trade policies.
When asked about the potential impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs on NVIDIA, CEO Jensen Huang responded by saying “that’s our highest mandate,” and the company “will comply fully with any regulation that comes along,” according to a report by Fortune.
Heavy Reliance on TSMC
It is worth noting that NVIDIA heavily relies on TSMC, the foundry leader based in Taiwan, for GPU production. As Trump previously threatened to charge a “protection fee” due to TSMC’s stronghold on U.S. chip production, accusing the foundry giant of “stealing our chip business,” the impact of the “Trump 2.0” era raises concerns.
A previous report by yahoo!finance pointed out that imposing tariffs on semiconductors from Taiwan would pressure chip manufacturers, like TSMC, to accelerate their pace of building fabs in the US to avoid the added tax, which is also likely for chipmakers to shift the extra costs to their customers.
This could reduce profit margins for companies such as NVIDIA, which enjoys a nearly 75% margin in the previous quarter.
China Sales down, with New Opportunities
On the other hand, according to Fortune, NVIDIA has faced challenges in producing chips for the Chinese market due to export restrictions imposed by the Biden administration. Since the fall of 2022, the U.S. has banned NVIDIA from supplying A100 chips to China, and the more powerful H100 chips have not been approved for sale there, which prompted the company to release H20, a tailored product for China.
Notably, citing Bloomberg’s data, the Fortune report notes that China, which previously contributed a quarter of NVIDIA’s revenue, accounted for only 12% of its business last quarter.
Even with the scaling down of NVIDIA’s business in China, the company may face additional challenges, as the Fortune report notes that 57% of NVIDIA’s business in conducted overseas. Therefore, Trump’s proposed universal tariff could present challenges, according to Fortune.
However, Trump’s policy may also benefit NVIDIA, as the new administration may be more open for AI. Another report by The Washington Post notes that the company could benefit from Trump’s promises to enable AI development in the U.S. Trump is reportedly expected to repeal a Biden-era executive order that he has said “hinders” AI innovation, and he said his energy policies will help meet the huge energy demands of data centers.
According to the analysis by TrendForce, NVIDIA’s revenue surged 94% YoY in FY3Q25, fueled by data center expansion and robust H200 orders from CSPs. However, growth in the next quarter is expected to moderate due to a high comparison base, the transition to the Blackwell platform, and seasonal factors. Accelerated growth is anticipated after 2Q25 as the supply chain, particularly for cooling systems, becomes fully prepared.
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(Photo credit: NVIDIA)