Continuous Rise in HBM Demand, Memory Giants Expecting HBM4 Delivery in 2025

Amidst the AI boom, HBM technology steps into the spotlight as market demand continues to surge. Global market research firm TrendForce anticipates a 58% year-on-year increase in HBM demand in 2023, with a potential additional growth of approximately 30% in 2024.

Compared to traditional DRAM, HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) boasts advantages such as high bandwidth, high capacity, low latency, and low power consumption. These attributes accelerate AI data processing and make it particularly well-suited for high-performance computing scenarios like ChatGPT. As a result, it has gained popularity, and major storage manufacturers are actively driving HBM technology upgrades.

Leading memory manufacturers are intensifying their efforts, with Samsung set to introduce HBM4.

Since the inception of the first HBM products utilizing TSV packaging technology in 2014, HBM technology has seen multiple upgrades, including HBM, HBM2, HBM2E, HBM3, and HBM3e.

Regarding the SK Hynix and Samsung, two major South Korean companies, have been at the forefront of HBM3 development. NVIDIA’s H100/H800 and AMD’s MI300 series, represent HBM3’s progress. Both SK Hynix and Samsung expected to offer HBM3e samples by the first quarter of 2024. On the other hand, Micron, a U.S.-based memory company, is bypassing HBM3 and directly pursuing HBM3e.

HBM3e will feature 24Gb mono die stacks, and with an 8-layer (8Hi) configuration, a single HBM3e chip’s capacity will soar to 24GB. This advancement is expected to be incorporated into NVIDIA’s GB100 in 2025, leading the three major OEMs to plan HBM3e sample releases in the first quarter of 2024 and enter mass production in the latter half of the year.

In addition to HBM3 and HBM3e, the latest updates indicate that storage giants are planning the launch of the next generation of HBM—HBM4.

Samsung recently announced that it has developed 9.8Gbps HBM3E and is planning to provide samples to customers. Furthermore, Samsung is actively working on HBM4 with a goal to begin supply in 2025. It’s reported that Samsung Electronics is developing technologies such as non-conductive adhesive film (NCF) assembly for optimizing high-temperature thermal characteristics, as well as hybrid bonding (HCB), for HBM4 products.

In September, Korean media reported that Samsung is gearing up to revamp its production process and launch HBM4 products to capture the rapidly growing HBM market. HBM4 memory stacks will feature a 2048-bit memory interface, a significant departure from the previous 1024-bit interface for all HBM stacks. This enhanced interface width holds great significance for the evolution of HBM4.

While HBM4 promises a major breakthrough, it is still a ways off, making it too early to discuss its practical applications and widespread adoption. Industry experts emphasize that the current HBM market is dominated by HBM2e. However, HBM3 and HBM3e are poised to take the lead in the near future.

According to TrendForce’s research, HBM2e currently accounts for the mainstream market share, being used in various products like NVIDIA A100/A800, AMD MI200, and many AI accelerators developed by CSPs. To keep pace with the evolving demands of AI accelerator chips, OEMs are planning to introduce new HBM3e products in 2024, with HBM3 and HBM3e expected to become the market’s primary players next year.

In terms of the demand transition between different HBM generations, TrendForce estimates that in 2023, mainstream demand will shift from HBM2e to HBM3, with estimated demand shares of approximately 50% and 39%, respectively. As more HBM3-based accelerator chips enter the market, demand will substantially shift toward HBM3 in 2024, surpassing HBM2e and accounting for an estimated 60% of the market. This transition, coupled with higher average selling prices (ASP), is poised to significantly drive HBM revenue growth next year.

(Photo credit: Samsung)