In June 2023, Apple introduced its inaugural spatial computing device, the Apple Vision Pro, entering the mixed reality (MR) landscape. On January 8th, 2024, Apple revealed on its official website that the Vision Pro would be available for pre-orders in the United States starting January 19th, with an official release date of February 2nd.

According to Apple’s official news release, Apple’s CEO Tim Cook has indicated as follows: “The era of spatial computing has arrived. Apple Vision Pro is the most advanced consumer electronics device ever created. Its revolutionary and magical user interface will redefine how we connect, create, and explore.”

In June 2023, at the WWDC (Worldwide Developers Conference), Apple unveiled its head-worn device, the Vision Pro, priced at USD 3,499. This cost is over three times the price of Meta’s high-end virtual reality (VR) model, the Quest Pro, at that time.

To bolster the ecosystem behind Vision Pro in the realm of mixed reality, Apple has made comprehensive preparations. In June of last year, the company announced the launch of new software tools and technologies, enabling developers to craft app experiences tailored for Vision Pro. Additionally, Apple established developer labs in California, London, Munich, Shanghai, Singapore, and Tokyo.

Considering factors such as pricing and the absence of certain essential features, TrendForce has previously anticipated a modest shipment volume of approximately 200,000 – 400,000 units for Apple Vision Pro in 2024.

The market’s response will heavily depend on the subsequent introduction of consumer-oriented Apple Vision models and the ability of Apple to offer enticing everyday AR functionalities that will drive the rapid growth of the AR market as a whole.

TrendForce also noted that the Apple Vision Pro boasts cutting-edge hardware specifications and innovative design. However, a substantial price tag of USD 3,499 and the requirement for an external power source to operate for a mere two hours pose challenges to consumer adoption.

Currently, the Apple Vision Pro lacks sufficient applications for mainstream users, making it more attractive to developers and enterprise customers who can capitalize on its innovative features to create diverse applications. Consequently, the higher price point of the product is justified.

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• [News] Apple Reportedly Accelerates Production of MR Headset “Vision Pro” for Potential February Launch
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(Photo credit: Apple)

In late December 2023, Apple faced sales suspension of certain Apple Watch models in the United States due to concerns over patent infringement with Masimo’s blood oxygen detection technology.

Despite Apple’s appeal for reinstatement, regulatory authorities will review updated designs presented in mid-January 2024 to determine whether sales suspension persists. The potential financial and time costs associated with settlement or redesign may prompt Apple to reassess the necessity of incorporating blood oxygen detection.

TrendForce’s insight:       

Apple and Masimo’s Prolonged Legal Battle Set to Conclude in Mid-January 2024, Verdict on Blood Oxygen Monitoring Patent Infringement

Since the introduction of the S6 in 2020, Apple Watch has featured blood oxygen monitoring technology, addressing the demand for detecting hidden hypoxia and hypoxemia, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many smartwatches released during the same period also incorporated this functionality.

The blood oxygen monitoring technology in Apple Watch utilizes traditional pulse oximetry. The built-in sensor consists of red, green, infrared LEDs, and a photodiode sensors that converts light into electric current.

In essence, the technology relies on shining light onto wrist blood vessels to capture data on the difference between oxygenated and deoxygenated blood. Algorithms are then employed to determine the blood oxygen content.

Hence, this technology involves not only software-related analytical applications but also hardware configurations and usage considerations.

In fact, the infringement dispute between Apple and Masimo has been ongoing. Since 2020, Masimo has accused Apple of patent infringement. The legal battle continued until October 2023 when the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) ruled in favor of Masimo, determining that Apple had indeed infringed. Consequently, in late 2023, a sales ban was imposed on certain models of Apple watches.

Despite Apple’s appeal allowing them to resume sales, regulatory authorities will reassess Apple’s redesigned models in mid-January 2024 to determine if improvements have been made.

Currently, the most severe impact of the ban is on models with blood oxygen functionality from the S6 onwards, including the S8, while only the SE series, without this feature, remains unaffected.

Diminished Need for Blood Oxygen Monitoring in Temporal Context – Apple May Reconsider Necessity

Given the current situation, there are several possible developments. Firstly, Apple may reapply for approval of a redesigned model by regulatory authorities, allowing them to resume sales after making necessary adjustments.

However, this approach involves not only software modifications but also hardware changes, encompassing testing, review processes, and relaunching, which could take several months. Considering Apple’s usual product release schedule in September each year, the company faces significant time pressure.

Secondly, Apple may opt for a settlement with Masimo. In the past, Apple has resolved disputes over chip technology and intentional slowdown of older devices with Qualcomm and in collective lawsuits with users.

However, settlement amounts were substantial, approximately $4.5 billion with Qualcomm and potentially up to $500 million in the case of collective user lawsuits. Compared to Apple Watch’s annual revenue in 2023, which may not have reached $20 billion, such outcomes may be less favorable for Apple.

If Apple cannot bypass Masimo’s patent through updates, settlement and payment of ongoing patent fees may become a necessary consideration. However, this to some extent may prompt Apple to reevaluate the necessity of the blood oxygen monitoring feature.

After all, for smartwatches equipped with blood oxygen monitoring is intended for health, not medical purposes. Besides Withings’ products, most smartwatches with this feature have not obtained approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). In other words, they cannot be used for medical purposes.

While having more features at the same price would enhance the product value for consumers, the current context of the post-pandemic era and Apple’s user loyalty suggest that the demand for additional functionalities may vary.

If Apple does not intend to further integrate blood oxygen data with other physiological data, there might be room to reconsider the necessity of redeveloping the technology and the continued existence of the blood oxygen monitoring feature in future Apple Watches. The value of incorporating such functionality may be subject to greater flexibility in this scenario.

Read more

• [News] Apple Reportedly Accelerates Production of MR Headset “Vision Pro” for Potential February Launch
• [News] Apple Could Introduce Micro LED into Vision Pro, Replacing Existing Micro OLED Technology

(Photo credit: Apple)

TrendForce discloses the latest panel prices for early January, with details as follows.

• TV

Entering the first quarter of 2024, despite the onset of a demand downturn, panel manufacturers are persistently implementing large-scale production cuts and maintenance plans, aiming to create opportunities for a reversal in supply and demand for TV panels.

Currently, observations since December indicate that ter 2 brands have begun increasing inventory for 32″ and 43″ panels, with signs of price increases emerging.

Therefore, the anticipated trend for TV panel prices in January suggests that 32″ and 43″ panels may be the first to stabilize, while the price decline for larger-sized panels is expected to moderate. A projected decrease of $1 for 50″ and 55″, and a decrease of $2 for 65″ and 75″.

• MNT

Entering 2024, despite current weak demand, panel manufacturers are encouraging early stocking through production cuts and scheduled maintenance plans to seek opportunities for stabilizing monitor panel prices.

Additionally, with potential risks in shipping routes in the current challenging environment, some customers, particularly those focused on the European and American markets, are intensifying their inventory plans.

Therefore, in the price trend for monitor panels in January, mainstream sizes such as 23.8″ and 27″ are expected to decrease by $0.1 and $0.2 for Open-Cell panels. There is also the possibility of further contraction of the decline.

• NB

After entering the first quarter of 2024, there is a noticeable decline in demand for NB panels. Brands urgently request panel manufacturers to lower panel prices. Additionally, the lower prices from Tier 2 panel manufacturers contribute to the ongoing downward pressure on panel prices.

Observing the price trend for NB panels in January, for 16:10 models, brands are aiming to narrow the price gap with 16:9 models due to the higher unit price. As a result, the 14″ 16:10 model is expected to decrease by $0.2, and the 16″16:10 model is anticipated to experience a larger decline of $0.3.

The mainstream 16:9 IPS models are expected to decrease by $0.1, while 16:9 TN models are expected to remain relatively stable.

Read more

• [Insights] The Panel Prices in Late December: Declines in TV, Monitor, and NB Applications

In a strong push for foldable smartphones, reportedly, Huawei has issued rush orders to its supply chain lately. The shipment target for foldable smartphones this year is set at ten million units, marking a nearly threefold increase from the 2.6 million units shipped last year.

Previous rumors suggested that Huawei was considering lowering its foldable smartphone shipment targets for this year. However, the industry sources from related supply chain emphasizes that not only did Huawei refrain from reducing orders, but it significantly increased them.

According to Economic Daily News cited from supply chain sources, Huawei has set very ambitious goals for foldable smartphone shipments this year, aiming to increase from last year’s 2.6 million units to a range of 7 to 10 million units. This represents a nearly threefold increase, requiring additional support from various components.

Among them, the critical mobile phone component CIS, due to a rebound from the market downturn, has seen prices starting to surge. Main CIS supplier, Samsung, has raised prices by 25% to 30% this quarter.

To avoid the risk of escalating prices, CIS has become Huawei’s top priority for stocking up, primarily supplied by the Chinese CIS supplier, OmniVision. The substantial increase in overall shipment targets for foldable smartphone has driven a several-fold growth in CIS stockpiles.

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• [News] Huawei, Honor, and Transsion Reportedly Estimate Active Smartphone Shipment Goals in 2024, Projecting an Additional 70-80 Million Units
• [News] Huawei Applies Patent for Wafer Processing Technology That Enhances Wafer Alignment Efficiency and Precision

(Photo credit: Huawei)

During last year’s WWDC conference, Apple unveiled its first-ever head-mounted display product, the Vision Pro. At that time, the official statement mentioned a scheduled market release in early 2024, prompting speculation about the precise launch date of Vision Pro.

According to Chinese media outlet “Wall Street” citing information from supply chain sources, Vision Pro is expected to be launched in the United States on January 27. However, some media outlets have suggested that the mentioned “January 27” is likely in China time, translating to January 26 in U.S. time, as Apple rarely introduces new products on Saturdays.

However, Bloomberg Chief Correspondent Mark Gurman pointed out that Apple has experience launching new products on Saturdays, citing the initial iPad release. Gurman acknowledged that January 26 is indeed a date heard recently from several Chinese supply chain sources.

Regardless of the official release date for Vision Pro, current rumors align with the earlier predictions of TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who anticipated Vision Pro to hit shelves at the end of January or early February.

Additionally, Gurman reiterated on his own X platform that Apple plans to launch the retail version of Vision Pro in February.

(Image: Apple)