As smartphones have entered a mature phase, the pace of innovation has slowed down. Additionally, the hardware and software of smartphones have reached a certain level, leading to longer lifespans and indirectly causing longer replacement cycles. On the other hand, to boost sales, brands and retailers have opened up old-for-new exchange programs, which has helped stabilize the growing market for second-hand and refurbished phones. Furthermore, the recent global economic downturn and consumer spending constraints have further driven the growth of this market.

The second-hand and refurbished phone market has been gradually strengthening, even eroding the performance of the new smartphone market. According to MediaTek, a major mobile chipmaker, the total volume of the iPhone second-hand and refurbished market is estimated to be around 50 million to 100 million units annually.

TrendForce estimates that the sales volume of this second-hand and refurbished market will be between 150 million to 200 million units this year, accounting for approximately 10-15% of the overall handset sales.

Looking ahead to 2024, due to the global economic situation not being overly optimistic, as well as the increased demand for smartphones in emerging regions, the market is expected to continue to contribute to growth. We estimate that the second-hand and refurbished market will reach a sales performance of over 200 million units in 2024.

On the other hand, the second-hand and refurbished market is still mainly dominated by high-end phones from Apple and non-Apple brands with higher resale value. Among them, Apple accounts for about 50% of the market, followed by Samsung.

Apple’s plan to release the first Apple Watch with a Micro LED display in 2024 has reportedly been delayed until the second half of 2025 or later due to production challenges. However, this delay shows Apple’s cautious approach to technology and evaluation. This delay shows Apple’s prudence and assessment of technology, but it also brings new opportunities for Ennostar, which was previously considered only a second supplier

According to market research firm DSCC’s, the new Apple Watch will initially adopt Osram’s Micro LED chips, and Epistar(under Ennostar), will be responsible for shipping related components. However, some insiders have revealed that Osram’s technology produces Vertical Chips, which are different from Epistar’s technology and are unlikely to be used in the same project simultaneously.

Epistar’s current chip technology is Flip Chips, Ennostar has stated that American brands are currently collaborating with European suppliers, and Epistar “may have a chance” to be the second supplier, however, ‘the second supplier” may not have a chance to join the cast until 2026.

DSCC mentioned that Epistar is responsible for shipping related components, which differs from what Ennostar said “second supplier”. Technically speaking, Ennostar is more likely to be a “parallel competitor” to Osram since the process of Vertical Chips versus Flip Chips are not on the same technical base. From this perspective, obviously, Apple has dual strategies on Micro LED from adopting Osram’s Vertical Chips as the core and maintaining the technical connections with Taiwanese manufacturers at the same time, which Ennostar may have a shot to ramp up to the main supplier again to take off the “second source” label.

Does the Micro LED process hint at Apple’s product line planning?

Micro LED chips now are mainly categorized into Vertical, Lateral, and Flip chips. According to industry insiders, Osram began developing Micro LED in 2019 but only focused on vertical chips due to patent issues. Currently, only 3 companies in the world have patents for Vertical Chips, and Osram is likely to gain a competitive advantage in Micro LED through these patents. As a result, the company is targeting the development of watches, phones, and AR glasses, and has been collaborating with Apple on watch projects in Germany since 2019. The size of the watch chip produced in collaboration with Apple is approximately 8um.

Meanwhile, Osram announced in 2021 that it is expanding its LED factory in Kulim, Malaysia with an investment of approximately $850 million, and plans to produce Mini LED and Micro LED chips in its 8-inch factory, with mass production expected in 2024. The company also mentioned last year that it plans to produce small-sized products by 2024, and this small-sized product is very likely to be Apple’s Apple Watch.

As for companies such as PlayNitride, Epistar, and Chinese manufacturers that are working on Micro LED technology, they are all using flip chips. PlayNitride stated that they have the opportunity to produce Lateral Chips as client’s request, and Vertical Chips may be produced for AR and VR in the future. “It still depends on the customer’s application to determine what kind of chips matches their products, e.g. Vertical Chips can bring higher PPI with a smaller size of chips.” PlayNitirde said.

Due to differences in the position of electrodes among Vertical chips, Lateral chips, and Flip Chips, give their own pros and cons in each production process. The advantage of Vertical Chips is that they can be made smaller, and the yield rate is higher as the size gets smaller. However, it is difficult to test and repair them once all the Micro LEDs are arranged and connected for testing, so the yield rate may decrease during the bonding process.

Vertical Chips are now suitable for use in the fields of watches, smartphones, and AR glasses, while Lateral Chips are used for other applications like automotive or large displays. However, AUO plans to produce Micro LED watches using Flip Chips, showing that different technologies can still be applied to similar products. In the future, using Vertical Chips may be necessary for developing AR glasses, which may explain why Apple is using this technology in its Apple Watch.

With the dawn of the era of Micro LED mass production, what will be Apple’s strategy?

Apple’s influence in display technology development affects other brands’ adoption attitudes. To reduce risks, Apple is not taking sides as different technologies and processes are involved, which may pose challenges to transfer technology or backplane technology, affecting the entire Micro LED supply chain. For the next generation Apple Watch, Apple is mainly working with Osram for Vertical MicroLED Chips, but may also collaborate with Taiwanese companies on Lateral or Flip Chips in the future.（Image credit: TechNews）

Due to weak demand in the mobile phone market, the decline in prices of mobile phone panels, especially AMOLED panels, has accelerated this year. Under overcapacity pressure, the price decline has exceeded expectations.

According to our survey, some brands actively introduced Ramless DDI flexible AMOLED panels in the second half of last year, trying to narrow the price gap with rigid AMOLED panels and increase usage rates through DDI cost optimization. However, the inventory level of flexible AMOLED panels with Ram is high, and the price decline has also accelerated, while also narrowing the price gap with rigid AMOLED panels.

The current prices update:

• Rigid AMOLED panels are around USD 18-20.
• Flexible AMOLED panels with Ram are priced at around USD 25 or even lower, which is a significant drop from the average of USD 30 or more last year.
• The above price reduction of flexible AMOLED panels with Ram has led to a price reduction of Ramless DDI flexible AMOLED panels, which are currently priced at around USD 20-22.

The significant price reduction of flexible AMOLED panels with Ram has dimmed the cost advantage of Ramless DDI flexible AMOLED panels, and currently only Xiaomi has adopted them. Other first-tier brand customers remain cautious.

In addition, due to the momentum of flexible AMOLED panel price declines, whether the price of rigid AMOLED panels will follow suit has become a challenge for SDC. We believe that SDC should follow the price reduction strategy and may even approach the level of USD 15 in the second half of the year after abandoning the USD 20 threshold.

However, there are two reasons why we believe SDC may find it difficult to reverse the current situation even with a price reduction strategy. These reasons include:

• Weak overall smartphone demand this year.
• Chinese brand customers will gradually adjust their procurement strategy to focus on domestic panel factories. For SDC, how to dispose of rigid AMOLED panel capacity in the medium to long term will be a major issue.

Due to the sustained pressure on AMOLED panel prices, LTPS LCD panel prices are also forced to continue to decline, and it is expected that prices will continue to drop from the current range of USD 10-15 and may even fall below USD 10.

On the other hand, because LTPS LCD prices have approached a-Si LCD panel prices, it has aroused the interest of some brand customers. Under the overall weak market conditions, adopting low-cost LTPS LCD specifications may help improve revenue performance or stimulate demand by upgrading from HD to FHD specifications at the same price.

Industry trend & Price trend

IT panel industry is expected to see a peak season in the second half of the year. Indicators such as channel inventory and brand inventory have improved from the slump last year, and a rebound in demand can be expected in the second half of the year. However, commercial IT panels are being purchased quite cautiously due to high inflation and economic uncertainties, while consumer IT panels can be expected to perform better.

In the display sector, there has been an observed increase in prices for gaming monitors, but it is unlikely to see a large-scale replenishment like in the TV market due to sufficient supply of IT panels and increasing production capacity in China. There is limited room for a significant price increase, but consumer displays may experience a small rebound, unlike commercial displays.

As for TVs, it is expected that the cost of production will surpass cash cost in May and June, leading panel manufacturers to increase their production rates. The extent of this increase will be crucial, as it could potentially drive panel prices higher or stall the price increase altogether. Production increase poses a significant uncertainty for supply and price hikes, with the third quarter remaining a key period that will depend on demand. If China returns to cash levels, higher production rates could be a potential risk.

Utilization rate

According to TrendForce, global panel manufacturers had a production capacity utilization rate of around 67%-68% in the first quarter, which is expected to increase to 73%-74% in the second quarter. The third quarter is conservatively estimated to reach utilization rate of nearly 80%.

China Dominates the LCD Market

As Samsung and LG Display gradually withdraw from the LCD market, Chinese panel manufacturers continue to expand their market share. This year, the global shipment volume for TV panels is expected to reach 70% market share.

According to TrendForce’s research, the global production volume of smartphones in 2022 is projected to reach 1.192 billion units, a YoY decrease of 10.6%, exceeding even the decline seen in the pandemic year.

However, the market for refurbished smartphones is a completely different story. Research institutions have pointed out that Apple’s sales of refurbished smartphones have grown by 16%, and the company now holds nearly half of the refurbished phone market.

The thriving market for refurbished and second-hand smartphones has ignited demand for touch and display integration IC (TDDI) from the repair market since 2H22, and this demand is expected to double to 200 million units in 2023.

But why is the demand for refurbished and second-hand smartphones increasing year after year? There are two possible reasons based on the current overall environment:

The price of refurbished and second-hand smartphones is lower than that of new smartphones.

Most refurbished and second-hand smartphones are refurbished before being sold back to the market. Their functionality and appearance are mostly normal, and unless the user mentions it, it is difficult to tell if it is a second-hand smartphone.

When purchasing refurbished smartphones, most people prioritize high-end models with high price points, regardless of the brand. However, the entry threshold for high-end new smartphones is often high, but this type of smartphone can be obtained at a cheap price in the second-hand market.

Why iPhone is the preferred choice?

• Brand recognition: Consumers of all ages may immediately think of Apple/iPhone when they hear the words “smartphone brand,” and iPhone can become a faction in its own right compared to Android smartphones.
• Operating system support: For smartphone users, the biggest fear when using the same smartphone for a long time is encountering the problem of the operating system no longer being supported. Although the smartphone can still be used when the operating system cannot be upgraded, security is no longer guaranteed.

However, the support and fluidity of the operating system are often advantages of Apple, and the iOS update support period is quite long, up to 6 years. Although 6 years may not sound long, statistics show that the average device usage cycle for an iPhone user is 3 years, and a support period of 6 years is actually a very long time. Even if you take over someone else’s second-hand smartphone, you don’t have to worry too much about the operating system not being supported.

While the growth of the refurbished smartphone market is good news for consumers, how much benefit does it bring to smartphone manufacturers?

For smartphone manufacturers, most of the profits come from the sale of new smartphones. When consumers purchase second-hand smartphones, the profit margins for manufacturers are reduced. However, manufacturers can still benefit from the demand for refurbished smartphones by participating in the refurbishment process or selling refurbished smartphones themselves.