According to the latest panel price analysis released by TrendForce in late June, TV panel prices continue to rise as panel manufacturers maintain control over their production capacity, ensuring a balance between supply and demand.

Despite lackluster sales performance during the 618 promotion, there has been a significant increase in sales revenue, reflecting strong demand for large-sized products with higher prices. Brand customers have not adjusted their procurement needs accordingly, and overall procurement demand is expected to continue growing as they prepare for the peak season in the second half of the year. This sustained growth in demand is likely to support the continuous upward trend in panel prices. Currently, it is projected that in June, prices for 32-inch panels will increase by 2 US dollars, 43-inch panels by 3 US dollars, 50-inch panels by 7 US dollars, and 55-inch panels by 8 US dollars. Meanwhile, 65-inch and 75-inch panels are expected to see an increase of 10 US dollars.

Following two consecutive months of price hikes by Taiwanese panel manufacturers, Korean and Chinese panel manufacturers have also begun considering raising prices. However, the recent weak demand in the commercial market has led brand customers, primarily focused on commercial sales, to continuously revise down their shipment forecasts. Consequently, the inclination towards price hikes is conservative, and both buyers and sellers remain in a stalemate. It is currently anticipated that Open Cell panel prices for this month will continue the upward trend of the past two months, with an expected increase of approximately 0.2 to 0.5 US dollars. As for panel module pricing, there is a possibility of a 0.1 US dollars increase for 21.5-inch and 23.8-inch organic panels, while 27-inch panels are expected to maintain a stable trend.

The demand for notebook (NB) panels is showing a monthly improvement trend. After several months of price stability, panel manufacturers are gradually becoming more inclined to raise prices. However, brand customers remain cautiously optimistic about the demand in the second half of the year and continue to exercise restraint in their stocking pace. Therefore, the idea of price increases is still leaning towards a conservative and resistant stance. It is currently expected that panel prices in June will remain stable. However, with the ongoing increase in demand, it is not ruled out that starting from July, certain NB panel prices may experience a slight upward trend.

TrendForce’s investigation into the supply chain reveals that Apple plans to upgrade the PCB materials in its new iPhone models in 2024. The current copper-clad laminate (CCL) will be partially replaced with resin-coated copper (RCC), aiming to reduce the size and thickness of the mainboard. This upgrade is expected to enhance electronic signal transmission efficiency, reduce energy consumption, and save internal space, providing more room for increased battery capacity.

Apple first introduced the substrate-like PCB (SLP) with the launch of the iPhone X in 2017. SLP offers advantages over conventional high-density interconnect (HDI) PCBs by reducing line width and spacing, optimizing PCB area, and increasing battery space. This design has remained unchanged since its introduction. However, recent discussions within the supply chain indicate that there are plans to introduce RCC materials in the second half of 2024 for the upcoming iPhones, marking an upgrade after a seven-year gap.

The main difference between RCC and traditional CCL lies in their structure. RCC eliminates one layer of fiberglass cloth, significantly reducing the overall thickness of the PCB. It also simplifies the manufacturing process and improves the laser drilling yield. In terms of component performance, RCC allows for further reduction in line width and spacing of circuit wiring based on SLP, reducing the spacing between various passive and active components on the board. It even enables the embedding of some passive components, thereby saving space required for surface mount technology (SMT) processes. All these upgrades contribute to greater power efficiency and improved performance in end devices.

Considering the similarities between RCC and ABF substrates in terms of the manufacturing process, the most likely supplier for RCC is the Japanese company Ajinomoto. If Apple successfully replaces some layers with RCC in 2024, it may impact the demand for existing CCL, particularly affecting the CCL supplier, Elite Material (EMC). It is anticipated that EMC’s RCC product may require 1-2 more years of research and development before it has a chance to be completed.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms. Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforce.com

considering factors such as pricing and the absence of certain essential features, TrendForce anticipates a modest shipment volume of approximately 200,000 units for Apple Vision Pro in 2024. The market’s response will heavily depend on the subsequent introduction of consumer-oriented Apple Vision models and the ability of Apple to offer enticing everyday functionalities that will drive the rapid growth of the AR market as a whole.

VR/AR shipments are expected to drop to 7.45 million in 2023

In the meantime, TrendForce forecasts a global downturn in AR and VR device shipments for 2023, predicting a shipment total of roughly 7.45 million units—an 18.2% YoY decrease. VR devices are expected to shoulder the majority of this decline, with projected shipments hovering around 6.67 million units.

Conversely, shipments of AR devices are expected to remain stable, with projected shipments exceeding 780,000 units. While Apple’s latest offerings could stimulate some demand, the high price tags attached to these units continue to pose a significant barrier to broader market growth.

TrendForce posits that the trajectory of the VR and AR device market may encounter certain limitations between 2023 and 2025. While affordable VR devices could pique the interest of mainstream consumers, the prospect of minimal profitability might dissuade manufacturers from substantial investment in the VR market in the immediate future. A shift towards AR devices and their corresponding applications seems more probable.

Nevertheless, the expansion of the AR device market hinges on a broader acceptance of consumer applications. Therefore, TrendForce anticipates that a significant rise in the VR and AR market, potentially nearing a 40% annual increase in shipments, might not be realized until 2025.

The ongoing global economic downturn continues to impact consumer confidence in the market. TrendForce reports that the global production volume of smartphones in 1Q23 was only 250 million units—marking a 19.5% YoY decrease. This represents not only the greatest annual decrease but also a historic low in quarterly production since 2014.

Samsung observed a slight surge in Q1 production thanks to the launch of its Galaxy S23 series, reaching 61.5 million units—a 5.5% QoQ rise. However, TrendForce predicts a nearly 10% drop in Q2 production due to weakening demand for new models. Apple faced a substantial 27.5% QoQ drop in smartphone production in Q1, delivering a total of 53.3 million units. The new iPhone 14 series accounted for approximately 78% of this figure, an improvement from the same period last year. Nonetheless, as the company navigates the transition period between model launches, a projected decrease of 20% is expected in Q2.

In light of unsatisfactory market conditions and necessary inventory adjustments, brands such as Oppo (which includes Oppo, Realme, and OnePlus) made strategic moves to reduce production in Q1 to 26.8 million units, a 17% QoQ decrease. However, TrendForce forecasts a more than 30% rise in Q2 production, attributed to successful inventory management and a moderate demand resurgence in Southeast Asia and other regions. It’s worth mentioning that, in addition to continuously strengthening its market share of high-end models in China, Oppo has achieved notable sales success in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. In fact, its overseas market accounts for nearly 60% of its total sales.

In the first quarter, Xiaomi (which includes Xiaomi, Redmi, POCO) saw its production volume dip to 26.5 million units—a 27.4% quarterly decrease. This decline can largely be attributed to a global dip in consumer confidence and an overstocked inventory of finished products at Xiaomi, leading to restrained production plans. Due to ongoing inventory adjustments set for the second quarter, quarterly production growth is projected to be capped, with a modest estimated increase of around 20%. Concurrently, Vivo (including Vivo, iQoo) reported a production volume of 20 million units for the first quarter—a 14.2% quarterly decrease. While China continues to be the primary market for Vivo’s sales, Q2 demand continues to remain stagnant in the Chinese market, following the reopening of its borders. As a result, the quarterly production volume is anticipated to show a modest increase of around 10%.

The continuous economic slump has led to increased activity in the used phone and repair markets, which could potentially hinder Q2 smartphone production growth. Notwithstanding, Q2 production is forecasted to reach 260 million units, demonstrating a QoQ increase of around 5%. However, due to the unfavorable economic environment, TrendForce forecasts that smartphone production will still fall by 10% when compared to the same period last year.

Apple’s latest MR device, the “Vision Pro,” utilizes Micro OLED technology. This technology, along with Micro LED, is considered the next generation of display technology. So what are the differences between Micro OLED and Micro LED, and which one is better suited for AR/VR/MR devices?

According to market research firm TrendForce, ideal smart glasses must meet three major criteria. Firstly, to minimize the burden of wearing glasses, the display engine’s size should be below 1 inch. Secondly, in terms of content recognition requirements, the display brightness specification should reach at least 4,000 nits to ensure immunity to external factors such as weather or venue conditions. Lastly, the resolution should be at least 3,000 PPI to ensure clear projection and magnification.

Currently, Micro LED and Micro OLED are the primary technologies that meet these requirements. However, Micro LED is still in the early stages of AR technology development and faces several challenges that need to be overcome. Therefore, Micro OLED is currently the mainstream technology in the field.

Micro OLED technology enables full-color capabilities and has become the preferred choice for AR/VR manufacturers. According to TrendForce’s comparison of display engines, Micro LED outperforms Micro OLED in pixel size, luminous efficiency, and brightness. It appears to be the most suitable for AR glasses based on specifications. However, Micro LED is currently limited to a single green color, while Micro OLED can achieve full color. As a result, Micro OLED has a competitive advantage in AR/VR devices.

In terms of manufacturers, Sony remains the main supplier for Micro OLED technology. Due to their longer investment time and technological advantages, South Korean manufacturers Samsung and LG Display (LGD) are expected to join Apple’s MR supply chain in 2024.

Last year, reports suggested that Samsung initially considered Micro OLED a niche market and lagged behind its competitor, LGD. However, due to demands from Apple, Meta, and Samsung’s parent company, they began developing Micro OLED in the third quarter of last year. The latest news reveals that Samsung will acquire American Micro OLED display manufacturer eMagin for a price of $218 million.

Meanwhile, Meta will also collaborate with South Korean semiconductor giants SK hynix and LGD to develop Micro OLED panels for Meta XR (Extended Reality) devices. This partnership is expected to lead to more Micro OLED applications in AR/VR in the future.

Micro LED technology is still facing bottlenecks, but it has the potential to surpass Micro OLED in the medium to long term. TrendForce states that Micro LED AR glasses, due to the bottleneck in achieving full colorization, primarily display monochromatic information such as informational prompts, navigation, translation, and note-taking functions. Achieving higher resolutions requires chip miniaturization, reducing the size of Micro LED to 5 micrometers. In this situation, epitaxial processes are affected by wavelength uniformity issues, which impact yield. Additionally, smaller chips raise concerns about the external quantum efficiency (EQE) of red chips.

Overall, although Micro LED faces many challenges in AR glasses, it still outperforms Micro OLED in contrast, responsiveness, lifespan, power consumption, and other specifications. Considering the limitations of waveguide component technology in transparent AR glasses, which restricts optical efficiency from exceeding 1%, Micro LED remains an excellent choice in the medium to long term.

Therefore, if Apple wants to introduce Micro LED technology, it plans to start with the Apple Watch. However, the project’s launch has been delayed from 2024 to a later date, possibly beyond 2025, due to technological bottlenecks. In fact, over the past decade, Apple has invested significant funds in collaboration with ams Osram to develop Micro LED components. Once the technology is ready for mass production, Apple is likely to take charge of the critical “mass transfer” process, which may be carried out at its secret research and development center in Longtan, Taoyuan.

It’s worth noting that in addition to Micro LED, the Longtan research and development center is also where Apple collaborates with TSMC on Micro OLED technology for MR devices.

(Photo credit: Apple)