TV sales in China hit their peak in 2019, with 44.5 million units sold, but the market experienced a sharp decline in 2020. This was due to the previous marketing strategy of lowering prices to increase sales volume no longer being effective for small and medium-sized products. In response, brands shifted their focus to larger-sized products, specifically those with a screen size of 65 inches or above, which has accelerated the trend of larger TVs dominating the market.

Panel prices skyrocketed between 2020 and 2021, causing a significant price disparity for TV products during promotional events in China. In the 2021 618 promotion, 55-inch TV prices surged by 67% compared to the previous year, while 65-inch TVs increased by 50%, leading to a surge in demand for larger TV sizes. TVs with a screen size of 55 inches and above accounted for over 65% of the market share in China in 2021, and it is anticipated to reach 80% by 2022. With greater discounts, 65-inch TVs became the mainstream size in 2022, surpassing 55-inch TVs in sales volume and market share. The market share of smaller TVs (43 inches and below) fell from roughly 30% to 16%.

According to recent market research, the dominance of smart TVs has surged from 85% in 2016 to a staggering 98% in 2022. Additionally, the popularity of 4K TVs has risen rapidly, with an 80% market share in 2022, following their introduction in 2014. The shift towards these new TV standards has been fueled by ongoing price cuts in the retail sector and the growing demand for larger screen sizes.

The scale of promotions during China’s 618 and Double Eleven shopping festivals could be affected by the upward trend of larger screen sizes and the rise in panel prices in 2023. As a result, brands are expected to shift their promotional strategies towards larger TVs, particularly 75-inch and 85-inch models, which generate more revenue. Consequently, TV sales in China for this year are predicted to decline further by 1.7%, with an estimated sales volume of approximately 30 million units.v

Due to geopolitical and pandemic, Apple has been accelerating the diversification of its supply sources, with India being the most well-known case for such transfer. According to TrendForce, India’s Tata Group is expected to become the fourth iPhone assembler for Apple. Following Apple’s pattern, new suppliers receive smaller orders for lower-end models, which means Tata Group will initially get only small orders for the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus.

TrendForce thinks the small order has 3 implications in Apple’s relocation plan:

First, Tata, the largest conglomerate in India, has received orders for iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus, indicating that India will become the first wave of shipments for new iPhone series.

Second, the reason why Tata is able to produce iPhone is due to the acquisition of Wistron’s Indian production line. Therefore, Tata’s entry also means Wistron’s exit from the iPhone assembly business.

Last, Tata is the fourth company to undertake iPhone assembly business after Luxshare joined in 2020 for iPhone 12 Pro Max assembly.

TrendForce emphasized that although Tata’s share of assembly orders for various iPhone models is only 5% in 2023, it still shows an accelerating trend of Apple’s production relocation.

As smartphones have entered a mature phase, the pace of innovation has slowed down. Additionally, the hardware and software of smartphones have reached a certain level, leading to longer lifespans and indirectly causing longer replacement cycles. On the other hand, to boost sales, brands and retailers have opened up old-for-new exchange programs, which has helped stabilize the growing market for second-hand and refurbished phones. Furthermore, the recent global economic downturn and consumer spending constraints have further driven the growth of this market.

The second-hand and refurbished phone market has been gradually strengthening, even eroding the performance of the new smartphone market. According to MediaTek, a major mobile chipmaker, the total volume of the iPhone second-hand and refurbished market is estimated to be around 50 million to 100 million units annually.

TrendForce estimates that the sales volume of this second-hand and refurbished market will be between 150 million to 200 million units this year, accounting for approximately 10-15% of the overall handset sales.

Looking ahead to 2024, due to the global economic situation not being overly optimistic, as well as the increased demand for smartphones in emerging regions, the market is expected to continue to contribute to growth. We estimate that the second-hand and refurbished market will reach a sales performance of over 200 million units in 2024.

On the other hand, the second-hand and refurbished market is still mainly dominated by high-end phones from Apple and non-Apple brands with higher resale value. Among them, Apple accounts for about 50% of the market, followed by Samsung.

Apple’s plan to release the first Apple Watch with a Micro LED display in 2024 has reportedly been delayed until the second half of 2025 or later due to production challenges. However, this delay shows Apple’s cautious approach to technology and evaluation. This delay shows Apple’s prudence and assessment of technology, but it also brings new opportunities for Ennostar, which was previously considered only a second supplier

According to market research firm DSCC’s, the new Apple Watch will initially adopt Osram’s Micro LED chips, and Epistar(under Ennostar), will be responsible for shipping related components. However, some insiders have revealed that Osram’s technology produces Vertical Chips, which are different from Epistar’s technology and are unlikely to be used in the same project simultaneously.

Epistar’s current chip technology is Flip Chips, Ennostar has stated that American brands are currently collaborating with European suppliers, and Epistar “may have a chance” to be the second supplier, however, ‘the second supplier” may not have a chance to join the cast until 2026.

DSCC mentioned that Epistar is responsible for shipping related components, which differs from what Ennostar said “second supplier”. Technically speaking, Ennostar is more likely to be a “parallel competitor” to Osram since the process of Vertical Chips versus Flip Chips are not on the same technical base. From this perspective, obviously, Apple has dual strategies on Micro LED from adopting Osram’s Vertical Chips as the core and maintaining the technical connections with Taiwanese manufacturers at the same time, which Ennostar may have a shot to ramp up to the main supplier again to take off the “second source” label.

Does the Micro LED process hint at Apple’s product line planning?

Micro LED chips now are mainly categorized into Vertical, Lateral, and Flip chips. According to industry insiders, Osram began developing Micro LED in 2019 but only focused on vertical chips due to patent issues. Currently, only 3 companies in the world have patents for Vertical Chips, and Osram is likely to gain a competitive advantage in Micro LED through these patents. As a result, the company is targeting the development of watches, phones, and AR glasses, and has been collaborating with Apple on watch projects in Germany since 2019. The size of the watch chip produced in collaboration with Apple is approximately 8um.

Meanwhile, Osram announced in 2021 that it is expanding its LED factory in Kulim, Malaysia with an investment of approximately $850 million, and plans to produce Mini LED and Micro LED chips in its 8-inch factory, with mass production expected in 2024. The company also mentioned last year that it plans to produce small-sized products by 2024, and this small-sized product is very likely to be Apple’s Apple Watch.

As for companies such as PlayNitride, Epistar, and Chinese manufacturers that are working on Micro LED technology, they are all using flip chips. PlayNitride stated that they have the opportunity to produce Lateral Chips as client’s request, and Vertical Chips may be produced for AR and VR in the future. “It still depends on the customer’s application to determine what kind of chips matches their products, e.g. Vertical Chips can bring higher PPI with a smaller size of chips.” PlayNitirde said.

Due to differences in the position of electrodes among Vertical chips, Lateral chips, and Flip Chips, give their own pros and cons in each production process. The advantage of Vertical Chips is that they can be made smaller, and the yield rate is higher as the size gets smaller. However, it is difficult to test and repair them once all the Micro LEDs are arranged and connected for testing, so the yield rate may decrease during the bonding process.

Vertical Chips are now suitable for use in the fields of watches, smartphones, and AR glasses, while Lateral Chips are used for other applications like automotive or large displays. However, AUO plans to produce Micro LED watches using Flip Chips, showing that different technologies can still be applied to similar products. In the future, using Vertical Chips may be necessary for developing AR glasses, which may explain why Apple is using this technology in its Apple Watch.

With the dawn of the era of Micro LED mass production, what will be Apple’s strategy?

Apple’s influence in display technology development affects other brands’ adoption attitudes. To reduce risks, Apple is not taking sides as different technologies and processes are involved, which may pose challenges to transfer technology or backplane technology, affecting the entire Micro LED supply chain. For the next generation Apple Watch, Apple is mainly working with Osram for Vertical MicroLED Chips, but may also collaborate with Taiwanese companies on Lateral or Flip Chips in the future.（Image credit: TechNews）

Due to weak demand in the mobile phone market, the decline in prices of mobile phone panels, especially AMOLED panels, has accelerated this year. Under overcapacity pressure, the price decline has exceeded expectations.

According to our survey, some brands actively introduced Ramless DDI flexible AMOLED panels in the second half of last year, trying to narrow the price gap with rigid AMOLED panels and increase usage rates through DDI cost optimization. However, the inventory level of flexible AMOLED panels with Ram is high, and the price decline has also accelerated, while also narrowing the price gap with rigid AMOLED panels.

The current prices update:

• Rigid AMOLED panels are around USD 18-20.
• Flexible AMOLED panels with Ram are priced at around USD 25 or even lower, which is a significant drop from the average of USD 30 or more last year.
• The above price reduction of flexible AMOLED panels with Ram has led to a price reduction of Ramless DDI flexible AMOLED panels, which are currently priced at around USD 20-22.

The significant price reduction of flexible AMOLED panels with Ram has dimmed the cost advantage of Ramless DDI flexible AMOLED panels, and currently only Xiaomi has adopted them. Other first-tier brand customers remain cautious.

In addition, due to the momentum of flexible AMOLED panel price declines, whether the price of rigid AMOLED panels will follow suit has become a challenge for SDC. We believe that SDC should follow the price reduction strategy and may even approach the level of USD 15 in the second half of the year after abandoning the USD 20 threshold.

However, there are two reasons why we believe SDC may find it difficult to reverse the current situation even with a price reduction strategy. These reasons include:

• Weak overall smartphone demand this year.
• Chinese brand customers will gradually adjust their procurement strategy to focus on domestic panel factories. For SDC, how to dispose of rigid AMOLED panel capacity in the medium to long term will be a major issue.

Due to the sustained pressure on AMOLED panel prices, LTPS LCD panel prices are also forced to continue to decline, and it is expected that prices will continue to drop from the current range of USD 10-15 and may even fall below USD 10.

On the other hand, because LTPS LCD prices have approached a-Si LCD panel prices, it has aroused the interest of some brand customers. Under the overall weak market conditions, adopting low-cost LTPS LCD specifications may help improve revenue performance or stimulate demand by upgrading from HD to FHD specifications at the same price.