According to TrendForce’s latest research, global NB shipments are forecasted to drop by 5.8% YoY to around 177 million units. However, the downtrend in NB shipments is starting to moderate, and the projected figure for 2023 is expected to represent the lowest point before 2025. Currently, inventory corrections for components and whole devices are taking place in the global supply chain for NBs. Prices are also being cut substantially across sales channels, and PC OEMs have scaled back component procurements. There is a chance that the NB market will return to its usual cyclical pattern and show growth during 2H23, when back-to-school and holiday-related promotions are expected to boost device sales.

However, this scenario will depend on two factors. First, PC OEMs will have been able to effectively get rid of the existing stock of NBs belonging to the older generations during 1H23. Second, global inflation will ease as 2023 progresses. Currently, the IMF forecasts that the rate of global inflation will slide down to 6.5% in 2023, compared with 8.8% in 2023. Such development will help raise the consumer spending related to electronics. All in all, notable inventory corrections and the reduction of inflationary pressure will allow the NB market to leave the gloomy situation of 2022 and get back to upbeat state of quarter-to-quarter shipment growth.

Market Segments for Commercial and Consumer NBs Will Both See Decline in 2023, Chromebooks, Gaming NBs, and Creator NBs Will Become Main Demand Drivers

Looking at the various segments of the NB market, unit shipments and market share are expected to drop for both commercial NBs and consumer NBs. Conversely, Chromebooks will grow in terms of shipments and market share despite various headwinds. In 1H23, mature regional markets such as the US and emerging regional markets such as Indonesia and India will be releasing tenders for Chromebook for educational uses. Turning to gaming NBs, their global shipments are forecasted to increase by 8.3% YoY to 17.45 million units for 2023 thanks to the seasonal demand surge in 2H23. As for creator NBs, the market for them is growing because professional content creators want to purchase a “mobile workstation” in place of a high-end gaming NB for tasks such as building 3D models and processing large amounts of multimedia files. Global shipments of creator NBs are forecasted to rise by 24.9% YoY to around 437,000 units for 2023.

(Note: “NB” stands for notebook or laptop computer.)

Sony has provided more information about the release of its PS VR2 through its official blog. According to its latest blog post about this product, the new VR headset, which is the main part of a PS VR2 bundle or package, will hit the market on February 22, 2023. The retail price of the entire bundle is now set at US$549. The bundle comprises the PS VR headset, two Sense controllers, and a set of stereo headphones. While the price of the PS VR2 is higher than that of the PS5 (i.e., US$499 for the standard PS5 and US$399 for the Digital Edition of the console), it is worth noting that the previous generation of the PS VR headset—the PS VR—priced the same as the PS4 Pro (i.e., US$399). Also, if we include two previous-generation PS VR controllers (i.e., the Move controllers) that cost US$49 each, then consumers would pay a total of US$497. Hence, the price difference between the older PS VR bundle and the PS VR2 bundle is almost US$50; and this is actually a fairly reasonable reflection of the cost of the new hardware. After all, the PS VR2 and the Sense controller incorporate quite a few new features and components such as eye-tracking and haptic feedback.

Generally speaking, Sony’s plan is not about making the PS VR2 more expensive than the latest PS console, per se, but rather about following a pricing strategy that is specific to its VR devices. It should be pointed out that for the previous generation, Sony sold the headset separately from the supporting controller. There was no bundle back then. Now, the company only sells the PS VR2 in a package deal that includes the headset and two motion controllers. Because of this change in sales strategy, consumers feel a price hike. As for the possibility of Sony selling standalone PS VR2 headsets in the future, TrendForce believes such move will be unlikely mainly because Sony is focusing on gaming experience rather than instinctively trying to raise the market penetration rate of the PS VR2.

When the PS VR was launched, the gaming experience that it provided was affected by the low market penetration rate of the PS4 Pro. Learning from this lesson, Sony has removed forward compatibility from the hardware and software designs of the PS VR2. Therefore, the combination of the PS VR2 bundle and the PS5 console is now the only way to get the most ideal VR gaming experience from Sony. And with this approach, Sony hopes to raise the market penetration rate of the PS VR as a whole. Moreover, the gaming experience for users of the PS VR2 will be mainly immersive. So, in addition to the specially designed video and audio content, the PS VR2 will also feature a wider range of operations and a greater variety of feedback mechanisms. Additionally, the game content for the PS VR2 will be designed specifically for the Sense controller. All these details again reveal a strategy that insists on a total package for consumers.

PS VR2 Shipments Are Forecasted to Reach 1.6 Million Units for 2023

While pricing will definitely affect the sales volume of the PS VR2, it is also important to remember that the game console market targets a just few particular subsections of consumers. VR gaming is thus a narrow segment within this niche market, and VR gaming devices are never going to reach the same scale in sales when compared with the more typical consumer electronic devices. Furthermore, game console users as a group tend to be willing to spend more than do most other consumers. Hence, providing a proper gaming experience is a much more effective way to grow the VR gaming market as opposed to trying to keep hardware prices down.

And for the reasons described above, we can also anticipate that the cumulative sales volume of the PS VR2 will unlikely be comparable to that of Meta’s Quest 2, which has reached the level of tens of millions. However, the PS VR2 should have no problem reaching the 5~10% market penetration rate that is already attained by the PS5. TrendForce projects that the cumulative total sales volume of the PS5 console will surpass 30 million units by the end of 2022. Considering the impact of the weakening economy on consumer spending and the lack of VR games in the initial period of adoption, some gamers will put off purchasing the PS VR2 until they believe the time is right. Still, shipments of this device are forecasted to reach 1.6 million units for 2023. The key factor that could push sales of the PS VR2 even higher is whether its games have the content that complements its hardware and thus provide an exceptionally immersive experience.

（Image credit: Pixabay）

Shipments in the global Chromebook product market are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2023. Mature markets such as the United States and emerging markets such as India and Indonesia will play a key role, primarily due to a small number of education tenders to promote shipments, and this rebound can be expected to continue based on future demand in mature and emerging markets. Global shipments of Chromebook products are estimated to reach 15.9 million units in 2023, an annual increase of approximately 8.2%.

In terms of regional markets, apart from Japan and Europe, the United States is the largest market for Chromebook products, accounting for 90% of the world’s demand for Chromebooks. Supported by a bailout bill proposed by the U.S. government and the developmental policy of the U.S. education market, lower-priced distance learning tools such as educational laptops, entry-level laptops, and tablet computers are gradually forming a bastion of Inelastic Demand.

Emerging markets such as India and Indonesia may become new blue oceans for Chromebooks

It is worth noting that the PC industry looks to emerging markets such as India and Indonesia. Relying on a huge demographic dividend, these countries may become another blue ocean market for Chromebooks after the United States, Japan, and Europe. However, TrendForce believes that emerging markets such as India and Indonesia are currently suffering from rising inflation coupled with economic headwinds such as currency depreciation pressure. Chromebooks, which are relatively inexpensive in mature markets, may hold little allure for the Indian and Indonesian education markets, as white-label tablet products will put competitive pressure on Chromebooks at lower prices. In addition, whether procurement policies for distance learning tools in emerging markets such as “Digital India” can be effective depends on the priority of emerging market governments for budgeting projects. At present, such markets have placed more urgency on improving the quality of infrastructure while education tenders may be sidelined.

（Image credit: Pixabay）

Since corrections continue to occur in the current global notebook computer market as a result of the “overbooking” bubble, destocking of terminal products is expected to continue until the first half of 2023, when cyclical growth momentum is likely to return to the market.

TrendForce forecasts that global notebook computer market shipments will reach 191 million units in 2022, falling 22.3% YoY. The first quarter of 2022 benefitted from a backstop created by market demand for business model notebooks, laying the foundation for a 2022 “not-off off-season.” However, the global notebook computer market encountered zero-COVID control measures in Shanghai, China, resulting in a supply chain suspension in 2Q22. In addition, rising inflation stalled global consumer electronics market demand. Shipment volume is only expected to be approximately 44.35 million units up until 4Q22, demonstrating that 2022 has reversed the established market norm, replacing “QoQ growth” with “QoQ decline.”

Global notebook computer market shipments will reach 177 million units in 2023, cyclical growth momentum is expected to play an important role

Looking back on 2022, due to the reversal of demand in the global notebook computer market beginning in 2Q22, the overbooking bubble caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has corrected quarter by quarter, resulting in a sharp increase in inventory levels at PC brands. Therefore, accelerating the destocking of notebook computer products is the current focus of PC brands with individual sales channels all adopting promotional strategies based on substantial price cuts. If the inventory level of terminal products can be reduced, it will be beneficial for PC brands to continue purchasing semiconductors and other materials in 2023 and pessimistic market conditions will not spread to the foundry industry, which is conducive to a positive cycle.

Movements in the current global laptop market to correct for the overbooking bubble will continue until the first half of 2023. The second half of 2023 coincides with cyclical growth momentum from back-to-school shopping and holiday seasons in major consumer electronics markets such as the United States, Europe, China, and Japan, and the global notebook computer supply chain is expected to ramp up supply from 2Q23 to reproduce a demand scenario wherein the second half of previous years surpassed the first half. Global notebook computer market shipments is estimated to reach 177 million units in 2023, an annual decline of approximately 7.7% and the proportion of shipments in terms of the first half compared to the second half of the year will be approximately 47:53.

（ Image credit: pikwizard）

The expected 2022 development pattern of the notebook computer business laptop market will show that Lenovo, Dell, HP, Apple, Asus, and Acer, the world’s six leading notebook computer OEMs, account for a total business laptop market share of as high as 94%, which is a double-digit percentage gain compared to a market share of 80.8% in 2021. Shipments of business laptops originating from the six major OEMs in 2022 is estimated to reach 80.29 million units, an increase of 8.2% compared to 74.22 million units in 2021, which is contrary to the YoY decline of 6.7% in the overall global business laptop market from 2021 to 2022.

Upon further observation, the aforementioned development trend is primarily due to a sharp decrease in the supply of small market share business laptops from OEMs such as Samsung, NEC, Huawei, and Xiaomi, while supply from the six major OEMs has increased. Comparing the two, the target market of smaller market share OEMs may be limited to their respective home countries. If market demand for business laptops in their home countries approaches saturation, coupled with limited capacity for expansion and a lack of strategic planning for global market access, it will be difficult to displace the top six OEMs with their targeted global market scope, nor do smaller market share OEMs have the strategic and technical ability to expand production capacity in time to meet the huge demand of the global business laptop market.

Performance of global business laptop market will decline sharply in 2023 and pandemic premiums are expected to reappear in 2024-2025

As the key driving force behind the global notebook computer market, business laptops are expected to reach 85.45 million units in 2022, a YoY decline of approximately 6.7% compared with 91.55 million units in 2021. However, shipments of business laptops will account for 43.8% of total shipments of all laptops (including business, consumer, and Chromebook laptops), setting a record for highest proportion of shipments in the past five years and since the global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019. With Chromebook shipments losing momentum, business laptop sales growth has prevented the market from falling off a cliff.

With the end of pandemic-related business laptop demand, business laptop shipments in the global notebook computer market is expected to diminish to 74.94 million units in 2023, and YoY decline will expand to 12.3%. If inflation in the consumer electronics market can be significantly slowed in 2H22 and the 1H23, cyclical “back-to-school” and “holiday season” growth momentum in 2H23 will benefit the notebook computer consumer product market, increasing the proportion of consumer device shipments in the global notebook computer market to 49.4% in 2023, while the proportion of business laptop shipments will recede marginally to 41.6%.

Although growth momentum in the current business laptop market is weak, the market performance of business laptops is still highly anticipated due to the “bulk sale” characteristic of business laptops, the fact that many companies must purchase replacement “Durable Goods” every 2-3 years, and the expectation that business laptops purchased during the severe pandemic of the past two years will be replaced subsequently from 2024 to 2025.

（Image credit: iStock）