Thanks to the increased adoption of AMOLED panels by major smartphone brands including Apple and Samsung, the penetration rate of AMOLED panels in the smartphone market is expected to reach 39.8% in 2021 and 45% in 2022, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. As AMOLED panels see increased adoption, the consumption of AMOLED DDI will undergo a corresponding increase as well. However, not only are the process technologies used for AMOLED DDI manufacturing currently in short supply, but some foundries are also yet to finalize their schedules for expanding their AMOLED DDI production capacities. Given the lack of sufficient production capacity, the increase in AMOLED panel shipment may potentially be constrained next year.

Regarding process technologies, the physical dimension of AMOLED DDI chips is generally larger compared to other chips, meaning each wafer yields relatively fewer AMOLED DDI chips, and more wafer inputs are therefore needed for their production. The vast majority of AMOLED DDI is currently manufactured with the 40nm and 28nm medium-voltage (8V) process technologies. In particular, as 40nm capacity across the foundry industry is in tighter supply compared to 28nm capacity, and TSMC, Samsung, UMC, and GlobalFoundries are the only foundries capable of mass producing AMOLED DDI, an increasing number of new wafer starts for AMOLED DDI are being migrated to the 28nm node instead.

Regarding wafer supply, the foundry industry is currently unable to fulfill client demand for 12-inch wafers. Hence, 12-inch capacities allocated to AMOLED DDI production are relatively limited as well. At the moment, only TSMC, Samsung, and UMC are able to allocate relatively adequate wafer capacities, although their capacity expansion efforts are still falling short of growing market demand. In addition, while SMIC, HLMC, and Nexchip are developing their respective AMOLED DDI process technologies, they have yet to confirm any mass production schedules. TrendForce therefore expects that the additional AMOLED DDI capacities to be installed next year will remain scarce, in turn further limiting the potential growth of the AMOLED panel market.

AMOLED DDI suppliers must overcome the issues of limited production capacity and technological difficulties in R&D

Other than the issue of tight production capacities, the difficulty of AMOLED DDI development is further compounded by the fact that each panel manufacturer has its unique specifications of AMOLED panels. For instance, panel manufacturers differ in terms of their display image uniformity (including the calibration of on-screen picture quality via eliminating display clouding, poor color/brightness compensation, and sandy mura). Hence, in order to address the discrepancies among panels manufactured by different companies, IC suppliers must adopt different compensating solutions and account for different parameters. Panel manufacturers therefore are likelier to adopt DDI from IC suppliers whose solutions have already been in mass production.

If prospective IC suppliers were to enter the AMOLED DDI market, they would need to overcome various difficulties in AMOLED DDI development, including long processes of validation and revision, in order to mass produce at scale. As well, each individual panel supplier requires its own different set of IP cores (referring to the various functional modules in an IC) and specifications, making it difficult to manufacture AMOLED DDI that is universally compatible with all AMOLED panels. For instance, ICs that are supplied to Korean panel manufacturers by AMOLED DDI suppliers are incompatible with AMOLED panels from Chinese panel manufacturers, which require new wafer starts with their own requirements.

On the whole, other than certain DDI suppliers which have their own subsidiary foundries or have longstanding foundry partners capable of DDI production, TrendForce believes that fabless AMOLED DDI suppliers must not only secure a stable and sufficient source of foundry capacity, but also possess sufficient technological competency for mass production, in order to successfully expand their presence in the AMOLED DDI market.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms. Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforce.com

This year, the US and Europe, which are Apple’s main markets for iPhone devices, are seeing an easing of the pandemic and expecting an economic recovery. Furthermore, Apple is expected to benefit from Huawei’s abandonment of some market share for high-end smartphones, and the sales of the new iPhone devices in 2H21 will likely be boosted thanks to this development. On the whole, the outlook on Apple’s performance in the smartphone market for the whole year is positive, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. Although the ongoing capacity crunch in the foundry industry will have a constraining effect on Apple in terms of ramping up its iPhone production and growing its market share in the future, TrendForce is still maintaining a cautiously optimistic view and forecasts that the annual total iPhone smartphone production for 2021 will grow by around 12.3% YoY to 223 million units, with additional room for a slight growth going forward.

Apple will prioritize the optimization of existing functions with the iPhone 12s series, while retail prices are expected to remain on par with last year’s release of iPhone 12 models

Apple plans to unveil the next generation of iPhones, tentatively called the iPhone 12s series (official name has yet to be revealed), in September 2021, and the smartphone market has placed the spotlight on the new handsets’ physical appearances as well as retail prices. Regarding the general outward appearance of the upcoming iPhone devices, the notch on top of the screen will shrink due to the decreased size of their sensor housings. Apart from this, other upgrades will mostly relate to the optimization of existing functions and features. All in all, the degree of innovation is not particularly significant in terms of appearance, and the four new models can be regarded as an extension to the iPhone 12 series. Because of this, TrendForce also believes that Apple will continue the proactive pricing strategy that it adopted in 2020 so as to maintain its market share for high-end smartphones. Even though prices of some key components have risen due to tightening supply, Apple is taking into account of the growth in the revenue of peripheral services in relation to the growth of iPhone sales. This means that the starting price of the upcoming iPhone series will likely be relatively on par with the starting price of the iPhone 12 series.

For the latest iPhone models, Apple has made certain upgrades to the handsets. TrendForce here summarizes the key components of the latest iPhone models, including the processor, display, memory, and camera. The iPhone 12s series will feature the A15 processors manufactured at TSMC’s 5nm+ node. Regarding the display, the new models will be equipped with flexible AMOLED panels with On-cell touchscreen technology; the two Pro models will also feature a 120Hz refresh rate. Judging by the iPhone 12s series’ starting prices as well as the differences among various models’ retail prices, TrendForce expects the new handsets’ memory capacities to remain the same as their iPhone 12 counterparts. On the camera front, Apple has upgraded all iPhone 12s handsets’ main cameras to include sensor-shift image stabilization technologies. For the Pro models, not only are their ultra-wide cameras now equipped with 6P lens (which is an upgrade over the previous generation), but they are also capable of autofocus functions. Notably, it should be pointed out that LiDAR scanners are available in the Pro models only.

On the whole, TrendForce expects the latest iPhone devices to account for about 39% of Apple’s total annual production volume for 2021. As all iPhone 12s handsets contain 5G modems, the share of 5G models in the overall iPhone production is projected to expand massively from 39% in 2020 to 75% in 2021. Furthermore, Apple is expected to focus on driving sales of the three non-mini models in the iPhone 12s series in view of the fact that the iPhone 12 mini (which reached End-of-Life ahead of time in 2Q21) suffered disappointing sales performances compared to other models in the iPhone 12 family.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms. Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforce.com

TrendForce’s investigations find that India has become the second largest market for smartphones since 2019. However, the recent worsening of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country has severely impaired India’s domestic economy and subsequently dampened various smartphone brands’ production volume and sales (sell-in) performances there. TrendForce is therefore revising the forecasted YoY growth in global smartphone production for 2021 from 9.4% down to 8.5%, with a yearly production volume of 1.36 billion units and potential for further decreases going forward.

TrendForce further indicates that the top five smartphone brands (Samsung, Apple, Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo) have either set up assembly plants in India or sought assistance from EMS providers with operations in the country. Hence, the share of made-in-India smartphones has been on the rise over the years, even though the majority of the domestically manufactured devices are still for meeting the demand of the home market. Judging from the current state of Indian smartphone manufacturing, TrendForce expects the second wave to reduce the country’s smartphone production volume for 2Q21 and 3Q21 by a total of 12 million units, in turn resulting in a 7.5% YoY decrease in smartphone production in India for the whole year.

In India, the second wave of COVID-19 has heavily impacted the middle and upper classes and weakened the sales of smartphones in 2Q21

India’s demographic dividend has generated an enormous demand in the domestic smartphone market. As well, the Indian government has been actively promoting domestic electronics manufacturing so as to boost the economy and create new job opportunities. On one hand, the Indian government has instituted a more restrictive tariff policy to force the localization of the supply chain. On the other hand, it is offering incentives to international smartphone brands so that they will expand the share of local device production. According to local news, people from the more affluent middle and upper classes are being hit the hardest by the second wave. This development will directly impact the country’s smartphone market in 2Q21 by weakening domestic consumer demand and in turn causing a drop in the ASP of smartphones. Smartphone brands are therefore expected to closely monitor their inventories of whole devices and adjust their subsequent production plans accordingly.

The top four smartphone brands in India, which are Xiaomi, OPPO, Samsung, and Vivo, with respective market shares of 25%, 23%, 22%, and 16%, collectively account for about 86% of the country’s total sales. As these brands primarily focus on the US$100-$250 product segment, the worsening pandemic has had an impact on all of them. With regards to manufacturing operations, most factories are reportedly operating normally without being disrupted by the pandemic. However, the accelerated spread of the coronavirus may adversely affect the lower and middle classes, who comprise the vast majority of the labor force. Should the health crisis in India remain unaddressed, TrendForce believes that the country’s import/export operations may come to a standstill as a result, and transportation of key smartphone components may also be disrupted.

On the whole, if the pandemic were to remain uncontained in India throughout 2Q21, then the country’s economic outlook for 2H21 would likely be less than optimistic, and there would be a further reduction in global smartphone production for the year. If these developments were to take place, then TrendForce proposes a “bear case scenario” in which the global smartphone production for the year increases by less than 8% YoY.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms. Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforce.com

During Apple’s Spring Loaded event, the Cupertino company announced the upcoming release of its latest 12.9-inch iPad Pro models featuring Mini LED display technology. According to TrendForce’s latest investigations, demand for the 12.9-inch iPad Pro has already been relatively high in the niche markets.

Thus, given the thorough improvement in specs as well as the very slight price hike of merely $100 over the previous generation, TrendForce is not only revising up its shipment forecast for the 2021 version of the 12-inch iPad Pro from four million units to five million units this year, but also expecting this product to account for a 3.1% share in the global tablet market, compared to the previous forecast of 2.5%.

TrendForce analyst Max Chen indicates three key areas of observation with respect to Apple’s latest flagship tablet: technology cost, retail price, and product spec. First, in terms of technology cost, the Mini LED backlight used in the new 12.9-inch iPad Pro costs about US$85 more than the traditional edge-lit LED backlight used in the previous generation.

Second, in terms of retail price, the entry-level 128GB model of the 12.9-inch Mini LED iPad Pro retails for $1,099, which is only $100 higher than the equivalent model of the previous generation. As such, the price hike in the latest model is, for the most part, a result of the increased cost of Mini LED backlights, rather than wholly being an attempt at driving up profit margins. The modest price hike is therefore an indication of Apple’s desire to become the gold standard in the tablet market by adopting Mini LED backlight technology.

Finally, in terms of product spec, the latest 12.9-inch Mini LED iPad Pro is equipped with Apple’s high-end Liquid Retina XDR technology, which gives the tablet a max full-screen brightness of 1,000 nits, peak brightness of 1,600 nits, and contrast ratio of 1,000,000:1, with the peak brightness and contrast ratio both being firsts in the tablet industry.

Furthermore, it should be pointed out that the latest tablet is equipped with 10,384 Mini LED chips, divided into 2,596 dimming zones, giving it additional high contrast and high color saturation performance that is superior to the 31.5-inch iMac, which features 512 backlight dimming zones and is the first product to feature Apple’s XDR display technology.

With regards to Apple’s plans for 2H21, the 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook models will likewise feature Mini LED backlight technology, which will become the hardware benchmark for high-end tablets and notebook computers. The release of Apple’s Mini LED-equipped tablets is expected to galvanize a growth against market headwinds for upstream and downstream companies in the Mini LED supply chain, including Mini LED chip suppliers (e.g., Ennostar), testing and sorting service suppliers (e.g., FitTech, Saultech, and YTEC), SMT suppliers (e.g., TSMT and Yenrich), backplane PCB suppliers (e.g., Zhen Ding Tech and Tripod Technology), driver IC suppliers (e.g., Parade, Novatek, and Macroblock), and light source module suppliers (e.g., Radiant/ROE and GIS).

(Cover image source: Apple.com)

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Optoelectronics Research, please click here, or email Ms. Grace Li from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforce.com

In response to consumers’ growing emphasis on camera performance as a major selling point of smartphones, smartphone brands have successively released multi-camera handsets to target this rising demand and seize market shares, in turn driving up the annual shipment volume of smartphone camera modules, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. Case in point, despite the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on the smartphone market in 2020, total smartphone camera module shipment still underwent a 3% growth YoY due to the increasing number of camera modules featured per handset as a result of smartphone brands’ competition over camera hardware. Given that the upward trajectory of smartphone camera module shipment will likely persist this year, TrendForce therefore forecasts an annual shipment volume of 5.07 billion units for 2021, an 11% growth YoY.

In addition to increasing the number of camera modules per handset, smartphone brands have also been raising the specifications of their smartphone cameras. First, with regards to the primary camera, certain Android phones will feature up to 64MP camera modules, which will surpass a 20% penetration rate in 2021 (making this particular pixel count spec the fastest-growing among all primary camera specifications), whereas the latest iPhones will likely continue to feature a 12MP primary camera, since Apple is mainly focused on the overall image quality of photos as opposed to megapixel count. Second, with regards to CMOS image sensors, certain smartphone brands, such as Apple, Huawei, and Xiaomi, are expected to increase their smartphone cameras’ sensor sizes to one inch in order to improve these cameras’ performances in low-light or night settings.

Third, with regards to ultrawide cameras, Apple will look to strengthen the autofocus performance of its flagship iPhone models by equipping the iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max with VCMs (voice coil motors), which are devices that drive autofocus systems. On the other hand, Huawei and OPPO will incorporate FreeForm Lens technology to address the distortion effect commonly found towards the edges of photos taken with ultrawide cameras.

Finally, with regards to periscope cameras, their widespread adoption by Android smartphone brands in 2020 resulted in a massive 429% growth YoY. Compared to the telephoto cameras found in iPhones, which offer 2.5x optical zoom, periscope cameras are capable of 5x optical zoom at the bare minimum, which delivers much higher image clarity in long-range photography situations. However, the forecasted decline in smartphone shipment of Huawei and Honor, which are the most aggressive in the industry in terms of periscope camera adoption, will in turn negatively affect total periscope camera module shipment for 2021 as well. TrendForce believes that a return to massive growth will not take place unless periscope camera modules capable of continuous autofocus are successfully mass produced, and smartphone brands are willing to adopt such modules for their handsets.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms. Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforce.com