Previously, TSMC has indicated that TSMC’s 2nm process will be deployed as scheduled in the second half of 2025, indicating that before that, the most advanced chips in the market will be produced using TSMC’s 3nm process. Apple, which has consistently been the first to adopt TSMC’s latest process, is set to be the first to adopt TSMC’s latest 2nm process.

▲ TSMC’s Layout of Global Production Capacity Edited by TrendForce, November, 2023

According to a report from the media outlet wccftech, Apple’s iPhone, Mac, iPad, and other devices will be the first users of TSMC’s 2nm process. Apple will leverage TSMC’s 2nm process technology to enhance chip performance and reduce power consumption. This advancement is expected to result in longer battery life for future Apple products, such as the iPhone and MacBook.

Currently, Apple’s chips designed for products like MacBook, iPad, and iPad Pro are produced using TSMC’s 3nm process technology. In 2023, the company announced the inclusion of the M3 Pro and M3 Max chips in the new MacBook Pro models. 

Additionally, TSMC will utilize new technology based on the GAAFET (Gate-All-Around Field-Effect Transistor) transistors instead of the traditional FinFET. While this new architecture makes the manufacturing process more complex, it also brings advantages such as smaller transistor sizes and lower power consumption.

In terms of performance analysis, Apple’s current chips are transitioning from the 5nm process to the 3nm process. This transition has resulted in a 10% increase in CPU performance and a 20% increase in GPU performance.

For now, TSMC is actively planning the capacity for future 2nm process technology through the construction of two new factories. Additionally, TSMC will utilize new technology based on the GAAFET (Gate-All-Around Field-Effect Transistor) architecture instead of the traditional FinFET architecture.

While this new architecture makes the manufacturing process more complex, it also brings advantages such as smaller transistor sizes and lower power consumption.

The report further indicates that Apple is expected to adopt the 2nm process for chip production in the iPhone 17 by 2025. Additionally, the same technology will also be applicable to the production of Mac’s M-series chips. 

Furthermore, as TSMC is quietly developing 1.4nm process, it is expected to be unveiled in 2027. This development means that, like the 2nm process technology, Apple could potentially be the first company to receive the latest process technology from TSMC for chip production, whether it’s 1.4nm or 2nm.

Read more

• [News] Samsung’s Discount Strategy Challenges TSMC as the Battle for 2nm Orders Heats Up
• [News] TSMC Responds to Rumors of New 1.4nm Fab

(Photo credit: NVIDIA)

According to recent reports, Huawei is expected to unveil its flagship P70 series later this year, alongside the introduction of the new Kirin 9010 chipset. However, there are indications that the older Kirin 9000S might be utilized in a specific model.

Wccftech suggests that the P70 series will include the P70, P70 Pro, and P70 Art, followed by the Mate 70 series. Notably, not all P70 models will feature the new Kirin 9010.

As per insights from the Weibo account Smart Pikachu, the P70 series will boast a custom curved display that is easy on the eyes and power-efficient but lacks a 2K resolution, and the standard version of the P70 is tested with the Kirin 9000S. This may potentially impact the motivation for users who have already purchased the Mate 60 and might not find sufficient reasons to upgrade to the P70.

Wccftech suggests that the adoption of the 9000S in some models could be attributed to the limited supply of the Kirin 9010. The Kirin 9000S, produced by SMIC using a 7nm process, faces production challenges due to the use of older-generation DUV equipment, resulting in a time-consuming and costly manufacturing process with lower yields.

Despite this, there is a glimmer of hope for Huawei’s pricing competitiveness, as the production cost of the Kirin 9000S is expected to be lower than that of the Kirin 9010. This cost advantage could potentially contribute to Huawei’s goal of reaching an estimated shipment volume of 100 million smartphones in 2024, especially considering the company’s historical strength in offering competitive pricing for its base models.

(Image: Huawei)

Apple, despite maintaining its position as the best-selling smartphone brand in China in 2023, is currently resorting to drastic measures to boost sales. An unusual promotional campaign featuring significant price reductions has surfaced on the official Chinese Apple website.

Customers using specific payment methods to purchase select Apple products can enjoy discounts of up to 800 Chinese yuan. This promotion includes the latest iPhone 15 series, Macs, AirPods, and Apple Watch.

According to an announcement on Apple China’s official website on the 15th of the month, Apple China is set to launch the “Welcome the Spring Festival Limited-Time Offer” from January 18th to January 21st. Customers who meet certain payment criteria will be eligible for varying discounts.

Taking the iPhone as an example, models like the iPhone 15 Pro, iPhone 15 Pro Max, iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Plus, iPhone 14, iPhone 14 Plus, and iPhone 13 are all part of this promotion, with potential savings of up to 500 Chinese yuan.

For those interested in purchasing the 13-inch or 15-inch MacBook Air (M2), or the 13-inch MacBook Air (M1), the discounts can reach up to 800 Chinese yuan. Other products such as the iPad series, Apple Watch SE, AirPods, and Apple Pencil-related models are also covered under this special offer.

It’s worth noting that this move by Apple is quite unusual, as they rarely introduce such significant price reductions for new products in the same year. For instance, during last year’s Chinese New Year event, only the previous generation models, iPhone 13 and iPhone 13 mini, were included in the promotion.

This is seen as Apple’s effort to boost sales in response to increasing competition, particularly from Huawei, which made a comeback in 2023 with flagship smartphones dominating the high-end Chinese smartphone market.

As Huawei plans to expand its market share in the high-end flagship category this year, targeting the domestic demand in China, coupled with geopolitical factors, this could directly compete with Apple and potentially exert significant pressure on Apple’s production performance in the this year.

Recent reports from Jefferies analysts cited by Bloomberg highlight the impact of the Huawei Mate 60 Pro’s presence and the Chinese government’s ban on iPhones for officials. It is estimated that the sales volume of Apple’s latest products in China in 2024 could decline significantly by 30% compared to the previous year, potentially resulting in a double-digit decline in sales for the entire year.

(Image: Apple)

According to a report from IJIWEI, there are recent indications that Huawei’s P70 series and smartphones with smaller foldable screens are set to be launched in the first half of this year, with the Kirin 5G chip making a comprehensive return.

Citing information from a blogger, Huawei’s return to the top spot in China’s market in the first week of 2024 is attributed to the outstanding performance of the Nova 12 series. In addition to this success, the first half of this year will witness the release of new models such as the P70 series flagship for imaging and compact foldable screen devices. The Kirin 5G platform is expected to make a full comeback.

In the first half of 2024, Huawei plans to unveil the P70 series and devices with smaller foldable screens, all powered by the Kirin 5G platform. It is reported that the P70 series will feature the Kirin 9010 chip. Looking at Huawei’s recent releases, the Kirin 5G platform is set to cover a broad spectrum, including the Mate series, P series, and nova series, among other mid-to-high-end product lines.

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International Securities revealed that Huawei’s smartphone shipments are expected to reach 60 million units in 2024, making it the fastest-growing brand in the industry. Kuo also mentioned that due to Huawei adopting the new Kirin 5G platform, Qualcomm’s System-on-Chip (SoC) shipments to Chinese smartphone brands are anticipated to decrease by 50-60 million units in 2024 compared to 2023.

(Image: Huawei)

Due to consumer spending pressures this year, the smartphone market is not as robust as before. With Apple facing strained relations with China, market sentiment continues to be pessimistic about Apple’s prospects.

Recently, citing from a report from Jefferies Financial Group’s analyst, Bloomberg stated that the sales volume of Apple’s latest products in China is expected to decline by 30% compared to last year in 2024, potentially experiencing a double-digit decline for the whole year.

The Wall Street Journal once reported that last year, the Chinese government announced its restriction on officials using iPhones, with at least eight provinces instructing officials to cease using iPhones.

This restriction not only applies to government agencies but also extends to state-owned enterprises, including large entities in China’s power generation, harbor construction, mining, manufacturing, education, and investment markets.

In addition to political restrictions, Apple is also facing pressure from Chinese competitor Huawei. Analysts from Jefferies Financial Group previously stated that sales of Huawei’s Mate 60 Pro surpassed the iPhone 15.

In 2023, Huawei held the highest market share in the Chinese smartphone market, growing by approximately 6% compared to the same period in 2022, while Apple’s market share in China declined by 4% year-on-year.

Patriotic Enthusiasm Supports Local Smartphone Brands

Driven by “patriotic enthusiasm,” according to Jefferies’ estimation, Huawei’s smartphone shipments last year reached 35 million units, falling below the expected 40 million, possibly due to constraints in component supplies.

The Huawei Mate 60 Pro features a SMIC-manufactured 7nm processor tailor-made for the domestic market. Huawei continues to develop and expand its HarmonyOS operating system, competing with iOS and Android.

Yet, according to MacDailyNews, Huawei has allegedly exaggerated the capabilities of the Mate 60. In reality, its processor specifications lag behind Apple by several generations.

The “Kirin 9000S” is a 7nm chip, with a Geekbench 6 single-core score of 1,267 and a multi-core score of 3,533. In comparison, Apple’s A17 Pro features a 3nm chip, scoring 2,902 in Geekbench 6 single-core and 7,221 in multi-core tests.

The Huawei Mate 60 falls behind even Apple’s entry-level third-generation iPhone SE. The latter is equipped with the 5nm A15 Bionic chip from September 2021, scoring 2,237 in Geekbench 6 single-core and 5,173 in multi-core tests.

Smartphone Price Reduction Fails to Boost Sales

To salvage the market, iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max witnessed a substantial 16% price reduction on the Pinduoduo e-commerce platform during the first week of 2024, with similar discount levels observed in December. However, analysts from Jefferies believe that these discounts will not stimulate sales growth.

As iPhone sales constitute approximately 52% of Apple’s total revenue, China has consistently represented Apple’s most crucial international market.

In the face of the competitive pressure in the Chinese market this year, TrendForce analysis suggests that Huawei’s successful sales will exert sales pressure on Apple, which also targets the high-end market in China.

Therefore, TrendForce is not optimistic about the production forecast for Apple in 2024, estimating the annual production volume to be around 215-225 million, slightly lower or flat compared to the previous year.

In terms of regional market operations, Apple continues to increase its production share in India, aiming to offset the lost market share in China through the growth of the high-end market in India. It is estimated that by 2025, the production share in India will further increase to 25-30%.

Read more

• [Tech Recap and Glimpse 5-4] Can Huawei Successfully Capture Apple’s High-End Smartphone Market?
• [Insights] Chinese Government Invests in Huawei Supply Chain; Semiconductor Self-sufficiency for China’s Long-Term Growth

(Photo credit: Huawei)