According to TechNews’ report, after a prolonged period of price suppression in the mobile panel market, there has been an upswing in demand since the end of the second quarter, as customer inventories have reached a turning point.

The report further quoted industry sources, stating that the increased demand is notably driven by Huawei’s new models, and other customers initiating stockpiling for new models. This gradual increase in demand is raising AMOLED panel utilization rates, subsequently leading to a price uptick, which is also influencing LTPS LCD panel prices.

Previously reported by IJIWEI, the robust demand for Huawei’s Mate 60 series smartphones is expected to contribute to a total annual smartphone shipment of 40 to 50 million units. This surpasses the previous year’s shipments of 30 million units by 30 to 70%.

Industry insiders cited by South Korean media indicate that Huawei’s shipping target for the next year is 100 million units, surpassing market research company predictions by over 40%, which estimated around 70 million units.

The demand for Huawei’s new smartphone models is on the rise, especially as its high-end products extensively adopt LTPO backplane technology, occupying a portion of panel manufacturers’ capacity. Additionally, other customers initiating preparations for new models have contributed to the surge in demand, bringing China’s AMOLED panel capacity back to 80-90%.

Looking ahead to next year, the demand for AMOLED panels will still need to be monitored, particularly around the Lunar New Year. If demand continues to grow steadily, it will likely support panel prices.

As for the crucial component, OLED DDI (Display Driver IC), the process is gradually shifting from 40nm to 28nm. Currently, only UMC (United Microelectronics Corporation) globally can mass-produce the 28nm HV (High Voltage) process required for OLED DDI, while SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) employs the 40nm HV process.

With TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) set to join the 28nm HV process in 2025, there is no imminent shortage of supply. Therefore, the price increase in AMOLED panels may have limited impact on OLED DDI prices, and the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year are likely to maintain a stable trend.

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• [News] Industry Insiders Report Huawei’s Target of Shipping 100 Million Smartphones Next Year

(Photo credit: Huawei)

Foxconn has announced plans to invest over USD 1.5 billion in expanding its facilities in India. This substantial investment, a rarity in recent years, has sparked speculation that Foxconn is preparing for the introduction of new iPhone products in India.

Due to reports suggesting that in the second half of 2024, Apple will initiate the design, development, and trial production process for the iPhone 17 in India, if true, this would mark the first time in iPhone history that a New Product Introduction (NPI) is conducted outside of China, solidifying India as a potential global iPhone production hub.

Foxconn’s subsidiary, Foxconn Hon Hai Technology India Mega Development Private Limited, disclosed the plan to build the factory locally, with an expected investment of INR 128.209 billion (approximately USD 1.537 billion). This move is seen as a strategic effort to enhance iPhone production capacity in India.

According to TrendForce’s estimate, the proportion of iPhones produced in India is still below 10% in 2023, expected to reach 25-30% by 2025, and projected to achieve 35-40% by 2028. TrendForce believes that with the stable production base of Foxconn in India, it can indeed expand the output.

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International Securities disclosed that Apple is placing a growing emphasis on the Indian market. The company intends to kick off the NPI process for the standard edition of the iPhone 17, slated for release in the second half of 2025, in India during the latter part of 2024.

Kuo further highlighted that this development signifies the first instance of a new iPhone model being developed outside of China. Choosing the standard version of the iPhone for development lowers the design complexity, reducing risks. This year, 75-80% of iPhones produced in India are manufactured by Foxconn.

According to a previous report by Indian media Economic Times, Foxconn’s factory in Tamil Nadu, India, has been producing the iPhone 15 Plus in the fourth quarter of this year and has already started production of the standard version of the iPhone 15.

Before the iPhone 14, only a small portion of Apple’s phones were assembled in India, with shipments lagging six to nine months behind those in mainland China. However, this year, India has officially entered the supply chain for the initial batch of new iPhones.

Foxconn’s India representative, V Lee, previously stated that the company was “aiming for another doubling of employment, FDI (foreign direct investment), and business size in India” by next year. However, no further details were provided.

In other product areas, there have been recent reports that three subsidiaries of the Foxconn Group will be among the first approved list of incentives for information technology (IT) production in India. Foxconn Group is also accelerating its layout for manufacturing and components in India.

(Photo credit: Apple)

1. Huawei sticks to a low-key strategy, opting for understated smartphone launches.

Contrary to expectations, the recent Huawei Autumn 2023 Launch Conference took an unexpectedly subdued tone. The much-anticipated Mate 60 Pro, believed to be the star of the show, received only a brief mention, leaving enthusiasts and industry watchers surprised.

This strategic shift can be deciphered by considering Huawei’s established strong brand loyalty among Chinese consumers. Previously hampered by the unavailability of 5G chips due to U.S. trade restrictions, Huawei has managed to overcome these hurdles. The recent successful sales of its new devices in China suggest that a flamboyant presentation of specifications at launch events might not yield substantial benefits. In fact, it could inadvertently be interpreted as a provocation amid the escalating tensions between the U.S. and China.

Therefore, in light of the strained bilateral relations, it is projected that Huawei will continue adopting a discreet approach, with future smartphone releases likely avoiding the spotlight at launch events.

2. Maturation of the smartphone industry poses challenges for brands seeking innovation.

Despite Huawei’s success in developing its own 5G-compatible chips amidst U.S. sanctions, the latest smartphone lack groundbreaking features. Innovations such as satellite communication or advanced camera modules (with periscope lenses and variable apertures) are conspicuously absent. Even in the flagship Mate 60 RS model, the emphasis shifts to the distinctive ceramic material on the back shell.

3. Anticipated rise in China’s domestic production ratio.

Before the U.S. sanctions, Huawei heavily relied on foreign suppliers for smartphone components, including RF, baseband, memory, and sensor chips, complementing its self-developed Kirin chips. However, the restrictive policy have compelled Huawei to shift its dependency to domestic Chinese manufacturers.

In the nearly three-year period from the imposition of U.S. sanctions to the recent release of Huawei’s new 5G smartphone, the industry expected Huawei and its supply chain to suffer severe setbacks. However, the China-made ratio of components in Huawei’s new smartphone currently stands at an impressive 90%, with only the DRAM incorporating SK Hynix products.

With Huawei’s return, it is poised to catalyze growth throughout its supply chain. The ongoing trajectory suggests a continual increase in the domestic production ratio of future devices in China.

As the global semiconductor supply chain based on specialization, the design and development of Application Processors (AP) or System on Chip (SoC) for smartphones primarily fall under the responsibility of IC design houses. In the wake of Apple’s notable success in pioneering in-house chips, other smartphone companies are now emulating this trend.

Developing in-house chips poses a challenge for smartphone brands, involving not only significant initial investments but also the navigation of various modules and architectures on the smartphone’s SoCs, including ISP and Modem. Balancing performance and power consumption optimally in specific application scenarios tests the R&D skills of designers, presenting a particularly challenging task for brands lacking relevant technological expertise. However, fueled by the ambition to “product differentiation” and “have a say in the market,” smartphone brands remain enthusiastic about venturing into in-house chips.

Smartphone Brands and SoC Dilemma

In current specialization, smartphone brands typically purchase SoC chips from IC design companies like Qualcomm or MediaTek. While they can fine-tune chip performance to suit the brand’s needs after purchase, the room for modification is quite limited.

Currently, smartphone product development is reaching maturity, and the market lacks innovation. For consumers, in the intensely competitive landscape, smartphones equipped with similar-level SoCs from Qualcomm may only differ in terms of “pricing” as a determining factor for purchase. If the market shifts into a price competition, it becomes unprofitable for smartphone brands.

Moreover, without the ability to develop in-house SoC, smartphone brands become dependent on IC design companies. If IC design companies alter their fee structures or take measures such as raising prices or adding licensing fees, brands have little choice but to comply, significantly impacting their profits.

As the central component of smartphones, if brands can design everything from scratch, it enables them to create product differentiation and gain a competitive edge. Although the initial investment is substantial, in the long run, it allows smartphone brands to have a say in the market.

Apple’s in-house SoC chip has become a significant standard for other smartphone brands in shaping their strategies. Examining Apple’s development trends, the success of the iPhone is largely attributed to Apple’s creation of powerful and efficient SoC chips.

Apple’s decision not to rely on IC design companies but to design chips in-house allowed iPhone to surpass other competing smartphone products. The key lies in Apple’s ability to plan for hardware and software from the ground up through its self-designed SoC architecture, achieving a high level of product differentiation. In addition to creating the most suitable SoC for the iPhone, it also solidifies a unique competitive advantage for Apple.

The Costly Pursuit on SoC          

However, venturing into in-house chips poses formidable challenges for smartphone brands. The primary hurdle lies in the necessity for a substantial financial investment. According to statistics from The New York Times, Apple invested about US$10 billion in developing the A4 chip, while Apple’s revenue at that time was approximately US$65 billion. At that time, the smartphone market was not saturated at that time and was still in the development stage, providing ample room for Apple’s growth.

Focus on the data, from 2010 to 2011, Apple’s revenue generated from selling iPhones grew from about US$25.2 billion to approximately US$45.9 billion, with a growth rate of about 82%. Apple’s revenue scale surpassed US$100 billion in 2012. With a huge and sufficient revenue scale support and the market still having growth potential, although self-developing chips require a large amount of investment, it is indeed feasible for Apple, whose iPhone business is thriving.

In the current mature and competitive smartphone market, creating product differentiation is the only way to break through. As most Chinese smartphone brands lack the technology to develop SoC, it becomes trending to adopt new strategy of developing in-house chips. Apart from self-developing SoC, some brands also choose to enter from the “specific function chip” on the smartphone.

Next Challenges in Plateauing Market

However, compared to the smartphone market situation when Apple initially turned to in-house SoC, current market has entered a plateau phase from the previous golden growth period. Brands find it difficult to generate sufficient revenue scale to support the high cost of in-house chips in the saturated and competitive market.

Moreover, with the continuous advancement of semiconductor process technology, the current cost to enter is much higher comparing to the past. Even with funds. Achieving in-house SoC involves a significant technical threshold, and it is challenging to bypass patents, especially when competitors have accumulated decades of experience.

Therefore, while the strategy of brands choosing to self-develop chips is likely to impact IC design companies like Qualcomm and MediaTek, its effects are expected to be limited. The reason is that for IC design companies like MediaTek and Qualcomm, they already occupy a place in the market with exclusive key technologies and accumulated intellectual property rights (IP), making it challenging for smartphone brands’ in-house chips to completely replace MediaTek and Qualcomm products.
(Image: Apple)

According to MoneyDJ’s report, Samsung Electronics, the South Korean smartphone giant, unveiled its latest foldable phones, the Galaxy Z Fold5 and Galaxy Z Flip5, in August. With a year until the next generation hits the market, speculation is arising that Samsung plans to incorporate foldable features into mid-range models. This move aims to lower the entry barrier, attract a broader customer base, and strengthen Samsung’s leading position in the foldable phone market.

TrendForce recently reported that Android smartphone brands are actively entering the foldable phone market, aiming to break through the plateau in smartphone market growth with the unique design of foldable phones. However, the widespread adoption of foldable phones faces a significant obstacle in their high pricing.

According to supply chain sources, Samsung is set to launch a mid-range foldable phone in 2024, targeting a relatively budget-friendly price range of $400 to $500 USD.

In August, Samsung launched its latest generation of foldable phones, the Galaxy Z Fold5 and Galaxy Z Flip5, maintaining a premium pricing strategy. The suggested retail prices are $1,799 USD for the Galaxy Z Fold5 and $999 USD for the Galaxy Z Flip5.

The market is eagerly anticipating Samsung’s introduction of a mid-range foldable phone. However, as of now, this remains in the speculative phase, and there’s no information available regarding its design, specifications, or other details.

Previous market rumors suggested that Samsung’s Z series of foldable phones might follow the flagship S series by introducing a “Lite Flagship” FE version. This version is expected to feature hardware downgrades to offer a more budget-friendly price, aiming to attract consumers.

According to a TrendForce’s forecast, as foldable phones gain increased acceptance in the consumer market, the global shipment volume of foldable smartphones is estimated to reach 18.3 million units in 2023. This represents a substantial 43% growth compared to 2022, although it accounts for only 1.6% of the total smartphone market sales. Looking ahead to 2024, the shipment volume is expected to grow by another 38%, reaching 25.2 million units, and the market share is projected to increase to 2.2%.

Read more

• [News] Can Foldable Phones Become Lifeline for the Declining Global Smartphone Market?
• After the iPhone 15 Series Debut, Will a Foldable Phone Be Apple’s Next Step?

(Photo credit: Samsung)