Source to China Times, as India continues to solidify its position in the global mobile phone manufacturing supply chain, industry analysts predict significant shifts in production dynamics. Apple, for instance, is expected to move 25% of its production to India by 2025, in addition to Chinese brands like Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo, which have already established manufacturing operations in the country. This trend has led to a scenario where India has substantially reduced its reliance on importing mobile phones from China, posing a substantial challenge to Chinese smartphone manufacturers and potentially resulting in the loss of annual orders for up to 180 million devices.

TrendForce believes that while Apple has such plans in place, the actual execution and achievement of these goals may face challenges.

The typical process of an iPhone involves design work at Apple’s headquarters in the United States, the use of main chips from American chip manufacturers and foundry services from TSMC, key components supplied by companies in Japan and South Korea, and the provision of remaining parts by Chinese manufacturers. The final assembly takes place at Foxconn’s factory in Zhengzhou, China, before the phones are air-shipped to destinations worldwide.

Since September of the previous year, an increasing number of consumers have noticed the label “Assembled in India” on the packaging of their iPhone 14 devices. This indicates that a growing proportion of Apple’s phones are being produced in India. Apple’s plan to shift 25% of its production to India by 2025 aligns with this trend.

Meanwhile, Chinese smartphone manufacturers such as Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo are also actively manufacturing in India, and Samsung currently produces all of its flagship phones in the country. These developments are reshaping the landscape of mobile phone trade between China and India. In 2014, China exported a staggering 180 million phones to India annually. However, as India’s mobile manufacturing ecosystem matures, its reliance on importing complete phones from China has dwindled.

Data from the Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) reveals that, following Indian Prime Minister Modi’s “Make in India” push in 2015, India’s share of globally manufactured phones surged to 11%, surpassing Vietnam and making it the second-largest mobile phone manufacturing country after China. Additionally, statistics show that from 2014 to 2022, India’s cumulative mobile phone production exceeded 2 billion units, with a CAGR growth rate of 23%. (Image credit: Apple)

(Source: https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20231004000745-260309?chdtv)

In 2023, driven by the demand from the repair market and the surge in the second-hand smartphone trend, the shipment volume of smartphone panels is expected to increase by 8.7% to reach an estimated 1.85 billion units. According to further estimates by TrendForce, the demand for panels from the repair market alone is projected to reach 300 million units, accounting for 16.2% of the overall shipment volume.

Playing a crucial role in the smartphone repair market is undoubtedly the iPhone.

TrendForce analysis reveals that half of the smartphone repair market size comes from the Chinese market, with approximately half of that market size originating from the repair of iPhone second-hand devices. When examining the iPhone repair market, models from 1 to 2 years prior to the current year play a pivotal role in meeting demand.

From a component perspective, the prices of TDDI for repair purposes generally tend to be slightly higher compared to those offered to brand customers, with a premium ranging from about 5-10%. However, these prices can exhibit more significant fluctuations based on market conditions, including increased pricing during shortages and more room for price adjustments in times of oversupply.

Regarding panel supply, Chinese panel manufacturers, rather than Taiwanese counterparts, dominate the repair market supply due to easier access to the South China market.

The specifications for repair panels are relatively diverse, with HD/FHD and OLED panels being used in the repair market. Notably, the A-si 900RGB specification, positioned between HD (1280×720) and Full HD (1920×1080), faces slow adoption in the new product market by smartphone brand customers. Consequently, panel manufacturers are prioritizing supply to the repair market. The primary aim of this supply strategy is to focus on iPhone repairs, providing a broader range of specifications and price combinations for iPhone repair services.

According to reports in the Indian media, India has decided to delay the implementation of import restrictions on electronic products such as laptops, tablets, and servers. This delay pushes the commencement date to November 2023. As a result, Taiwanese, American, and Chinese laptop manufacturers are now reevaluating their production strategies in India and expediting their applications for importing electronic goods.
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According to Taiwan’s Economic Daily, while two high-end models of the iPhone 16 are expected to feature larger screens next year, there are indications that the new iPhone SE, positioned as an entry-level device, will also follow suit by enlarging its display. Insider sources have revealed that the iPhone SE is set to enter its fourth generation, taking design cues from the iPhone 14 base model, with a 6.1-inch screen and the elimination of Touch ID and Home button in favor of Face ID as the biometric authentication solution.

The current iPhone SE, in its third generation, is the only iPhone model with both Touch ID and a Home button. If the fourth-generation iPhone SE no longer includes the Home button and eliminates Touch ID, it would mean that all iPhones will feature a full-screen design.

Furthermore, reports from the market suggest that the fourth-generation iPhone SE will sport a 6.1-inch screen, a significant increase compared to the 4.7-inch display of the third-generation iPhone SE released in 2022. In terms of performance, the fourth-generation iPhone SE is expected to be powered by Apple’s A15 chip.

Source to China Times, on the 25th of this month, Huawei introduced its top-tier flagship smartphone, the Mate 60 RS. The entire supply chain is buzzing with anticipation. However, major chipset manufacturers, MediaTek and Qualcomm, both stand ready for what lies ahead. The reason for their vigilance stems from their previous share of the pie, which was snatched away by Huawei. Now, there’s concern that those gains may slowly be taken back.

For MediaTek, although Huawei’s new phone is positioned as a high-end model, it doesn’t pose a direct threat to MediaTek’s focus on mid-range and low-end 5G chips. However, industry insiders believe that Huawei might not rule out the possibility of launching mid-range and low-end 5G phone chips in the future, deepening the HarmonyOS, which could further squeeze MediaTek’s market share.

Huawei has traditionally used its in-house HiSilicon-designed chips for its smartphones. However, due to US sanctions, Huawei’s market share plummeted, allowing other Chinese smartphone competitors to seize opportunities. MediaTek and Qualcomm benefited from this shift in orders.

Recently, Huawei has made a strong comeback. Following the low-key release of the Mate 60 Pro, it has now unveiled the flagship RS model. After 3 years of intensive efforts, Huawei has achieved comprehensive self-reliance in operating systems, software, databases, and other foundational software. It has also completed the development of domestic alternatives for 13,000 components, investing heavily in the semiconductor supply chain.

The most impacted player in this scenario is Qualcomm, which primarily targets the high-end market. There are even expectations that by 2024, Qualcomm will lose all Huawei smartphone orders. Although MediaTek’s mainstream models have not been directly affected, there’s a possibility that Huawei may strengthen its HarmonyOS ecosystem, gradually penetrating the mid-range and low-end segments. MediaTek needs to remain vigilant. Huawei’s Nova series, for instance, is aimed at mid-range models, and it may not rule out using its in-house Kirin 5G chips to gain a stronger foothold in the market.

The initial stock of the Mate 60 series reached 15 million units, and the shipment target for 2023 has been raised to 20 million units, including foldable phones like the Mate X3 and X5. Supply chain sources suggest that Huawei has internally raised its overall shipment target for 2023 to 40 million units, and the market anticipates even higher volumes of 50 million to 60 million units in 2024.

Industry insiders point out that due to strong demand for Huawei’s products and better-than-expected i15 orders, there are reports of inventory replenishment in the smartphone supply chain. However, in the future, both China and the United States will cultivate their respective supply chains, reducing the win-win situations. For instance, in the RF Front-end segment, Huawei has started to use domestic supplier Maxscend Technologies, which could squeeze market orders for US and Taiwanese suppliers. (Image credit: Huawei)

(Source: https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20230927000252-260204?chdtv)