Apple’s latest MR device, the “Vision Pro,” utilizes Micro OLED technology. This technology, along with Micro LED, is considered the next generation of display technology. So what are the differences between Micro OLED and Micro LED, and which one is better suited for AR/VR/MR devices?

According to market research firm TrendForce, ideal smart glasses must meet three major criteria. Firstly, to minimize the burden of wearing glasses, the display engine’s size should be below 1 inch. Secondly, in terms of content recognition requirements, the display brightness specification should reach at least 4,000 nits to ensure immunity to external factors such as weather or venue conditions. Lastly, the resolution should be at least 3,000 PPI to ensure clear projection and magnification.

Currently, Micro LED and Micro OLED are the primary technologies that meet these requirements. However, Micro LED is still in the early stages of AR technology development and faces several challenges that need to be overcome. Therefore, Micro OLED is currently the mainstream technology in the field.

Micro OLED technology enables full-color capabilities and has become the preferred choice for AR/VR manufacturers. According to TrendForce’s comparison of display engines, Micro LED outperforms Micro OLED in pixel size, luminous efficiency, and brightness. It appears to be the most suitable for AR glasses based on specifications. However, Micro LED is currently limited to a single green color, while Micro OLED can achieve full color. As a result, Micro OLED has a competitive advantage in AR/VR devices.

In terms of manufacturers, Sony remains the main supplier for Micro OLED technology. Due to their longer investment time and technological advantages, South Korean manufacturers Samsung and LG Display (LGD) are expected to join Apple’s MR supply chain in 2024.

Last year, reports suggested that Samsung initially considered Micro OLED a niche market and lagged behind its competitor, LGD. However, due to demands from Apple, Meta, and Samsung’s parent company, they began developing Micro OLED in the third quarter of last year. The latest news reveals that Samsung will acquire American Micro OLED display manufacturer eMagin for a price of $218 million.

Meanwhile, Meta will also collaborate with South Korean semiconductor giants SK hynix and LGD to develop Micro OLED panels for Meta XR (Extended Reality) devices. This partnership is expected to lead to more Micro OLED applications in AR/VR in the future.

Micro LED technology is still facing bottlenecks, but it has the potential to surpass Micro OLED in the medium to long term. TrendForce states that Micro LED AR glasses, due to the bottleneck in achieving full colorization, primarily display monochromatic information such as informational prompts, navigation, translation, and note-taking functions. Achieving higher resolutions requires chip miniaturization, reducing the size of Micro LED to 5 micrometers. In this situation, epitaxial processes are affected by wavelength uniformity issues, which impact yield. Additionally, smaller chips raise concerns about the external quantum efficiency (EQE) of red chips.

Overall, although Micro LED faces many challenges in AR glasses, it still outperforms Micro OLED in contrast, responsiveness, lifespan, power consumption, and other specifications. Considering the limitations of waveguide component technology in transparent AR glasses, which restricts optical efficiency from exceeding 1%, Micro LED remains an excellent choice in the medium to long term.

Therefore, if Apple wants to introduce Micro LED technology, it plans to start with the Apple Watch. However, the project’s launch has been delayed from 2024 to a later date, possibly beyond 2025, due to technological bottlenecks. In fact, over the past decade, Apple has invested significant funds in collaboration with ams Osram to develop Micro LED components. Once the technology is ready for mass production, Apple is likely to take charge of the critical “mass transfer” process, which may be carried out at its secret research and development center in Longtan, Taoyuan.

It’s worth noting that in addition to Micro LED, the Longtan research and development center is also where Apple collaborates with TSMC on Micro OLED technology for MR devices.

(Photo credit: Apple)

TV panel prices have been on a continuous rise from the bottom of the first quarter to the second quarter, surpassing cash costs. Panel manufacturers are determined to reverse their losses and maintain a strong stance on price hikes. They are also adjusting production rates to maintain the supply-demand balance. However, the demand side indicates a slowdown as the Chinese e-commerce sale season has completed its stocking, and a significant surge in demand is expected to occur in the third quarter. As a result, the overall demand momentum is currently leveling off. Consequently, this month’s price increases for TV panels are expected to show a slight convergence.

Some panel manufacturers are actively increasing monitor panel prices after a period of stability. The prices of Open Cell panel products were previously too low, allowing room for further price increases. This month, prices are expected to rise by USD 0.2~0.5. However, the trend for panel module products is less clear due to varying attitudes toward price hikes among manufacturers, especially newer entrants trying to secure orders with lower prices. As a result, mainstream panel sizes like 23.8 inches and 27 inches are expected to remain mostly unchanged in price this month.

Notebook panel prices have remained stable despite a pricing struggle between brand customers and manufacturers. Demand is steadily increasing, leading panel manufacturers to consider price hikes. However, brand customers are hesitant due to uncertain prospects in the coming months. While there is growth in demand, it is mainly driven by inventory restocking rather than additional demand. As a result, panel prices are expected to stay flat this month, with little room for increases until the end of Q2.

Demand for stocking up ahead of the upcoming June 18th promotion is dwindling, and the TV panel market is gradually returning to normal levels. Panel manufacturers are carefully managing production rates to maintain a balanced supply and demand. As a result, TV panel prices are expected to continue their strong upward trend in May. Anticipated price increases include a $1 rise for 32-inch panels, $2 for 43-inch panels, $9 for 50-inch panels, $10 for 55-inch panels, $12 for 65-inch panels, and $11 for 75-inch panels.

As TV panel prices continue to rise, monitor panel prices are also showing signs of potential increases. Open Cell products, including VA and IPS panels, may see price adjustments ranging from $0.2 to $0.5 in May. The panel module market is well supplied, with different strategies among regional manufacturers. Only Taiwanese manufacturers have confirmed price hikes, while others remain cautious. The possibility of customers adjusting orders due to differing price strategies could result in shifting demand. Overall, mainstream panel module prices are expected to remain stable in May, with a chance of $0.3 to $1 increases for smaller sizes.

While overall notebook panel demand has been increasing month by month since 2Q23, most of it is driven by urgent orders. Due to the uncertain future demand outlook from brand customers, panel manufacturers are cautious about raising prices. Brand customers have replenished their panel inventory to a healthier level, but without proactive stocking, panel prices are unlikely to see a short-term improvement. In May, panel manufacturers can only maintain stable prices, and the possibility of price increases depends on clear signs of significant demand recovery from brand customers.

In May, TV panel prices are expected to continue rising due to strong inventory momentum and dynamic operating capacity utilization by panel manufacturers. Especially Chinese manufacturers aim to restore TV product profits to above break-even points by the end of Q2, so the price increase of TV panels in May is significant. Full-size TV panel prices are expected to increase by 1~10 USD, which are all predicted to rise above cash costs in May.

VA panels are in higher demand than IPS panels for monitors currently, and Open Cell panel prices have slightly risen in recent months. The monitor panels are expected to continue to rise by 0.3~0.5 USD in May. Module product demand outlook is uncertain, with limited price increase space, so prices will likely remain stable in May. Taiwanese panel manufacturers have released information on price increases for monitor panels, and their impact on the market atmosphere and price trends needs to be observed still.

Demand momentum for notebook panels is slowly increasing, but the overall demand outlook is unclear, so the NB brands remain conservative attitude on their panel inventory. Meanwhile, the NB brands are expected to be high-maintenance while dealing with the tentative messages about raising the NB panel prices from panel manufacturers. Therefore, TrendForce believes that notebook panel prices are expected to remain stable in May.

Due to weak demand in the mobile phone market, the decline in prices of mobile phone panels, especially AMOLED panels, has accelerated this year. Under overcapacity pressure, the price decline has exceeded expectations.

According to our survey, some brands actively introduced Ramless DDI flexible AMOLED panels in the second half of last year, trying to narrow the price gap with rigid AMOLED panels and increase usage rates through DDI cost optimization. However, the inventory level of flexible AMOLED panels with Ram is high, and the price decline has also accelerated, while also narrowing the price gap with rigid AMOLED panels.

The current prices update:

• Rigid AMOLED panels are around USD 18-20.
• Flexible AMOLED panels with Ram are priced at around USD 25 or even lower, which is a significant drop from the average of USD 30 or more last year.
• The above price reduction of flexible AMOLED panels with Ram has led to a price reduction of Ramless DDI flexible AMOLED panels, which are currently priced at around USD 20-22.

The significant price reduction of flexible AMOLED panels with Ram has dimmed the cost advantage of Ramless DDI flexible AMOLED panels, and currently only Xiaomi has adopted them. Other first-tier brand customers remain cautious.

In addition, due to the momentum of flexible AMOLED panel price declines, whether the price of rigid AMOLED panels will follow suit has become a challenge for SDC. We believe that SDC should follow the price reduction strategy and may even approach the level of USD 15 in the second half of the year after abandoning the USD 20 threshold.

However, there are two reasons why we believe SDC may find it difficult to reverse the current situation even with a price reduction strategy. These reasons include:

• Weak overall smartphone demand this year.
• Chinese brand customers will gradually adjust their procurement strategy to focus on domestic panel factories. For SDC, how to dispose of rigid AMOLED panel capacity in the medium to long term will be a major issue.

Due to the sustained pressure on AMOLED panel prices, LTPS LCD panel prices are also forced to continue to decline, and it is expected that prices will continue to drop from the current range of USD 10-15 and may even fall below USD 10.

On the other hand, because LTPS LCD prices have approached a-Si LCD panel prices, it has aroused the interest of some brand customers. Under the overall weak market conditions, adopting low-cost LTPS LCD specifications may help improve revenue performance or stimulate demand by upgrading from HD to FHD specifications at the same price.