The latest “Automotive Display Market Analysis” from TrendForce indicates that the overall demand for automotive display panels (automotive panels) is gradually stabilizing and shows an upward trend as the automotive market as a whole slowly recovers, and promotional activities related to smart cockpits continue to expand. TrendForce estimates that the overall supply of automotive panels will maintain growth for 2023. Additionally, by 2026, TrendForce forecasts that the annual total supply of automotive panels will surpass 240 million pieces. Furthermore, as panel makers improve their OLED products in terms of performance and cost optimization, the market share of OLED in the market for automotive panels is forecasted to reach 8.9% by 2026.

The ongoing inflation has resulted in a significant decline in the demand for consumer electronics, prompting panel manufacturers to shift their focus towards automotive displays. Regarding the development of automotive panels, automobile manufacturers are now increasingly demanding greater integration in terms of design and functionality. This opens up new opportunities for panel makers to expand their presence downstream by offering system integration services. Panel makers aim to loosen the tight control that traditional Tier-1 automotive suppliers have over various automotive parts and components. Specifically, for displays used in cockpit systems, panel manufacturers are looking to establish a new kind of supply relationship with automobile manufacturers.

Automotive displays, including rear-seat entertainment screens, passenger-side displays, central information displays, and digital clusters, are evolving into more powerful communication mediums. Moreover, to integrate the various independent functions found in a traditional cockpit, larger screens and more flexible spatial designs are required. Hence, there is room for further advancements in various display technologies. For instance, pairing LCDs with a Mini LED backlight can significantly boost display brightness to over 1,000 nits, thereby improving display visibility when external conditions like snow and bright sunlight could cause interference. OLED panels, in contrast to traditional LCDs, offer notable advantages. They are self-emissive and thinner. They have a higher refresh rate and can be built on flexible substrates. These advantages can provide significant added value for automotive displays. Flexible OLED panels, in particular, allow for more innovations in vehicle design and are primarily positioned for flagship and high-end products in the automotive market.

In order to resolve the issue of durability for OLED among automotive applications, the technology is mostly adopted with Tandem OLED, which inter-concatenates and stacks multiple OLED components to form a high-efficiency OLED structure. Double-stacked OLED components require 1/2 less current density than that of single-layer variations after concatenation and are able to improve by a minimum of a twofold increase in lifespan under a much lower power consumption from panels. As for cost, Hybrid OLED panels are incorporated, where the assimilation between rigid OLED glass substrates and the thin-film packing technology used by flexible OLED would both reduce weight and cut cost, and curving effects can also be attained through thinned substrates.

TrendForce commented that a closer partnership between panel makers and automobile manufacturers is bound to be inevitable, should the former wish to expedite their market shares, seeing how automotive displays require approximately 2-3 years for testing and qualification. Subsequent to Samsung Display successively acquiring major orders from Ferrari and BMW, automotive leader LG Display has also announced to enhance its partnership with 9 luxury automotive brands by widening in incorporation of high-end automotive OLED panels, and is scheduled to mass produce its second-generation Tandem OLED, which has been vastly improved in brightness and power consumption. While LCD adopted with Mini LED BLU (Mini LED backlight technology) races to seize the automotive market through cost advantages, OLED is accelerating its entry into the high-end automotive display market by launching ultra-large, rollable, and transparent products.

As costs continue to decline, it is projected that OLED technology will reach a 50% penetration rate in the smartphone market by 2023. Additionally, OLED is gradually making inroads into applications such as TVs, laptops, and tablets. According to TrendForce analysis, the current landscape of OLED technology presents various opportunities and challenges depending on the application. In the realm of smartphones, the number of OLED smartphone products is on the rise, and the technology is taking on diverse forms, including rigid OLED screens, OLED curved displays, and OLED foldable displays.

TrendForce predicts that by 2023, the penetration rate of OLED foldable smartphones will reach 1.6%, with sales volume increasing from 12.8 million units in 2022 to 18.26 million units. With advancements in OLED display specifications and increasingly competitive pricing, OLED foldable smartphones are poised to become mainstream in the market. Currently, the penetration rate of OLED foldable smartphones is relatively low, primarily because OLED technology has not fully met user demands for larger screens within the same form factor while maintaining affordability. This marks a significant development trend for foldable smartphones in the future.

In response to the ever-evolving landscape of smartphone screens and high consumer demand, panel makers are taking a multi-faceted approach to upgrading OLED technology. To achieve full-screen displays while ensuring quality in screen visuals and camera functionality, certain brands have begun utilizing hole-punch screens, integrating the camera beneath the display – a prime example being the iPhone 14 Pro series with its Dynamic Island. On the other hand, companies like Samsung, BOE, and CSOT are opting to forego punch holes altogether. Instead, they are enhancing screen transparency and incorporating the camera beneath the display by rearranging specific display area pixels and reducing size.

Panel makers are enhancing OLED technology to improve both lifespan and efficiency. They are adopting LTPO technology to dynamically adjust screen refresh rates, reducing power consumption. Additionally, for foldable screens, companies are eliminating polarizers, using color filters to reduce reflection, and switching to ultra-thin glass cover panels. These optimizations are in response to the varied demands of smartphone applications, and they signal the continued growth of OLED in future smartphone uses.

In the realm of TV, TrendForce thinks that COVID-19, geopolitics, and rising shipping costs, furthermore, companies have been focusing on the development of larger-sized TVs, particularly in the 65, 77, and 85-inch categories, causing the overall decline in the TV market in recent years. The OLED TV market is primarily dominated by Korean manufacturers LG and Samsung. TrendForce projects that in 2023, OLED TVs will account for approximately 2% to 3% of the overall TV market.

TrendForce suggests that Samsung and LG are currently enhancing OLED technology by adopting new materials and incorporating quantum dot technology to improve OLED’s luminous efficiency. This has led to an increase in the cost of OLED technology, which in turn has limited the widespread adoption of OLED TVs. However, with factors such as depreciation of production machinery, improved yield rates for OLED products, and streamlining of the production process, it is expected that OLED TV prices will gradually decrease in the future.

Monitor

In 2023, OLED display shipments are expected to reach approximately 530,000 units, marking a 342% increase by YoY. However, OLED displays are projected to hold only a 2% to 3% market share in the overall display market. Within the OLED display market, LG is poised to surpass Dell and become the brand with the largest market share due to its proactive deployment of OLED product lines and diversified product offerings, along with strong demand for 27-inch products in the market.TrendForce states that the future of OLED displays lies in larger sizes, necessitating the use of higher-generation panel production lines for efficient and cost-effective OLED panel manufacturing.

Notebook, Tablet

In the laptop and tablet arena, as compared to smartphones and televisions, the application of OLED technology has been relatively limited. However, according to TrendForce, OLED technology is beginning to transition into IT-related applications. This includes innovations such as OLED Tandem device structures, as well as recent developments like JDI’s photolithography eLeap and Visionox’s ViP. These advancements are set to significantly enhance OLED performance and lifespan. When these technologies are ready for deployment, they are expected to effectively reduce OLED costs and substantially increase OLED panel penetration in the IT market.

Notably, Apple has already integrated OLED technology into its iPad products, and the Apple brand’s influence is expected to drive other brands to adopt OLED technology, accelerating OLED’s penetration in the IT market.

Automotive display

In the realm of automotive displays and other applications, TrendForce envisions a future for OLED technology characterized by transparency, extended lifespan, and versatility to meet the demands of foldable displays, automotive displays, and transparent displays. In automotive displays, OLED features such as high brightness, wide viewing angles, high contrast, and a broad operating temperature range make it suitable for applications like rear-seat entertainment systems and in-car infotainment displays. In the realm of transparent displays, OLED’s high transmittance and ability to display real-time information make it suitable for use in automotive windshields, windows, and A-pillars. Additionally, in the domain of stretchable displays, flexible OLED screens can be stretched and slid while maintaining a consistent thickness.

TV panel prices have reached relatively high levels after nearly two-quarters of increases. Brand customers face the dual pressures of weak demand and rising procurement costs, leading to early adjustments in their purchasing strategies. Third-quarter TV panel procurement has been revised down from the previous estimated 6-7% quarterly growth to near-flat levels. Fourth-quarter demand is also expected to decrease, requiring panel manufacturers to prepare for the off-season. Panel prices are anticipated to stabilize in late September.

Monitor panel demand surged in the second quarter, but third-quarter shipments are only expected to grow by 1~2%. As we approach the fourth quarter, brand customers will feel more pressure to adjust their demand. After a few months of slight price increases, monitor panel prices are expected to stabilize across the board in September.

Notebook panel demand peaked in August of the third quarter and is expected to dip slightly in September. However, overall third-quarter shipments are set to grow slightly compared to the second quarter. Some panel manufacturers aim to maintain price increases. With major brands increasing safety stock levels or working toward year-end goals, a marginal USD 0.1 increase in notebook panel prices is expected in September.

TrendForce released panel price forecasts for early September, with Eric Chiou, Senior Research Vice President at TrendForce, noting that TV panel prices have been on the rise since February. However, despite the price uptrend, end-demand remains subdued. Coupled with the overall unfavorable economic conditions, signs of stagnant prices are emerging in September for TVs below 50 inches.

Chiou pointed out that if the outlook for the fourth quarter is not optimistic, we could be entering the peak season’s final stages. Brands are facing rising costs and limited promotional space, leading to a conservative approach in preparations for China’s Double 11 and Black Friday sales events in Europe and the US. Overall, 65-inch to 75-inch TV panels have a chance to increase by $3, but price pressures are expected to kick in for panels from October to December.

As the traditional TV market enters the off-season, the key factor will be the extent of price reductions and the profit margins for sellers.

Regarding IT panels, monitor panels are the least profitable among the three major applications. The price increases in the second quarter were already somewhat reluctant, with only low-end IT panels showing upward potential while high-end panels struggled to rise significantly. Overall, IT panels are facing stagnation in price increases and supply chain disruptions, with expectations of greater price pressure from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of the next year.

In the monitor panel segment, visibility for business laptops is not high, and brand manufacturers are expected to adjust panel procurement in the fourth quarter. Second-tier laptop manufacturers are likely to engage in price wars, facing significant pricing pressure. The panel industry conditions in the third quarter of this year were better than in the second quarter, but demand for panels in the fourth quarter may not match the third quarter’s performance.

In the realm of TV panels, after experiencing consecutive growth for two quarters, brand customers are increasingly feeling the pressure of rising procurement costs. Additionally, with the momentum for year-end promotions gradually winding down, brand customers are preparing to adjust their TV panel purchases, with these adjustments expected to gradually reflect in price trends over the coming months. Looking at TV panel prices in September, it is currently projected that 32-inch and 43-inch prices will remain stable, while 50-inch and 55-inch models will see a $1 increase, and 65-inch and 75-inch models will see a $3 increase. Compared to the previous months, price increases are expected to show significant convergence.

On the monitor panel front, demand in the commercial sector continues to be weak, and brand customers in the consumer sector are gradually reducing their procurement needs. Furthermore, they are adopting a more conservative outlook for fourth-quarter demand, resulting in a shrinking price increase potential. While there is still some room for minor upward adjustments in prices for certain lower-priced models, overall, the trend of continuous price increases witnessed in recent months is expected to cease. It is currently anticipated that monitor panel prices in September will remain stable across the board.

Turning our attention to notebook panels, overall demand has reached its peak. However, panel manufacturers remain proactive in pushing for higher panel prices. When it comes to specifications, demand for lower-tier TN models is still relatively stronger compared to mid to high-tier IPS models. Consequently, there is a possibility of TN panel prices maintaining their previous months’ upward trend, while IPS panels also have a chance of seeing price increases in September due to the active efforts of panel manufacturers. It is currently projected that lower-tier TN models may see a $0.2 increase in September, while mid to high-tier IPS models may see a $0.1 increase.