In May, TV panel prices are expected to continue rising due to strong inventory momentum and dynamic operating capacity utilization by panel manufacturers. Especially Chinese manufacturers aim to restore TV product profits to above break-even points by the end of Q2, so the price increase of TV panels in May is significant. Full-size TV panel prices are expected to increase by 1~10 USD, which are all predicted to rise above cash costs in May.

VA panels are in higher demand than IPS panels for monitors currently, and Open Cell panel prices have slightly risen in recent months. The monitor panels are expected to continue to rise by 0.3~0.5 USD in May. Module product demand outlook is uncertain, with limited price increase space, so prices will likely remain stable in May. Taiwanese panel manufacturers have released information on price increases for monitor panels, and their impact on the market atmosphere and price trends needs to be observed still.

Demand momentum for notebook panels is slowly increasing, but the overall demand outlook is unclear, so the NB brands remain conservative attitude on their panel inventory. Meanwhile, the NB brands are expected to be high-maintenance while dealing with the tentative messages about raising the NB panel prices from panel manufacturers. Therefore, TrendForce believes that notebook panel prices are expected to remain stable in May.

Industry trend & Price trend

IT panel industry is expected to see a peak season in the second half of the year. Indicators such as channel inventory and brand inventory have improved from the slump last year, and a rebound in demand can be expected in the second half of the year. However, commercial IT panels are being purchased quite cautiously due to high inflation and economic uncertainties, while consumer IT panels can be expected to perform better.

In the display sector, there has been an observed increase in prices for gaming monitors, but it is unlikely to see a large-scale replenishment like in the TV market due to sufficient supply of IT panels and increasing production capacity in China. There is limited room for a significant price increase, but consumer displays may experience a small rebound, unlike commercial displays.

As for TVs, it is expected that the cost of production will surpass cash cost in May and June, leading panel manufacturers to increase their production rates. The extent of this increase will be crucial, as it could potentially drive panel prices higher or stall the price increase altogether. Production increase poses a significant uncertainty for supply and price hikes, with the third quarter remaining a key period that will depend on demand. If China returns to cash levels, higher production rates could be a potential risk.

Utilization rate

According to TrendForce, global panel manufacturers had a production capacity utilization rate of around 67%-68% in the first quarter, which is expected to increase to 73%-74% in the second quarter. The third quarter is conservatively estimated to reach utilization rate of nearly 80%.

China Dominates the LCD Market

As Samsung and LG Display gradually withdraw from the LCD market, Chinese panel manufacturers continue to expand their market share. This year, the global shipment volume for TV panels is expected to reach 70% market share.

In 2021, shipments of notebook computer panels increased quarter by quarter with record highs posted in each quarter. In addition to strong demand for display terminals, panel makers continued to invest in capacity and resources for notebook computer panel production. With notebook panel shipments hitting a record high in 2021, panel makers also set fairly aggressive BP targets for 2022.

Panel makers shipped 187.7 million notebook panels before the COVID-19 outbreak in 2019 and up to 287.9 million in 2021, an increase of more than 50% in two years. In 2022, panel makers planned to grow by an additional 14.1% to 328.5 million units. With such high expectations, the sudden shipment revisions in 1H22 were urgent and violent, catching panel manufacturers off guard.

In 1H22, terminal demand and inventory problems materialized at the same time

The Russian-Ukrainian war in 1Q22 had a dramatic impact on oil production capacity. In addition, strong terminal demand in the past few quarters drove up the prices of various commodities, causing the annual growth rate of inflation to climb, in turn changing interest policies from central banks to focus on suppressing terminal demand and inflation, and leading to plummeting terminal demand.

Shipments of whole devices in 1Q22 were lower than single-quarter shipments of any quarter in 2021, meaning pandemic-induced demand had weaker since the outbreak of COVID-19. However, China imposed restrictions to prevent resurgences of the pandemic in 2Q22. These measures affected the assembly capacity of notebook computer OEMs, and also reduced 2Q22 notebook computers shipments by 17.7%. Looking into the background of 2Q22, when China’s lockdown measures were implemented, brands did not scramble to request OEMs resume production and supply as they had in the past two years. Instead, brands lowered their annual BP and component orders, reflecting that when brands express a bearish attitude regarding waning pandemic-induced boons and pessimism towards future demand, canceled orders in the supply chain is unavoidable.

Before 1Q22, panels have always resided on the top 3 list of notebook computer components. Therefore, notebook computer brands have adopted overbooking and accumulated inventory in the past two years to respond to strong terminal demand and support performance. The average supply-demand ratio for the past 12 years of whole notebook computer panel devices fell at 12.5%. The supply-demand ratio exceeded the long-term average of more than 18% beginning in 3Q21, reaching an ultra-high level of 28% in 1Q22. A relatively high supply-demand ratio means that panel inventory on the brand side accumulated to a certain extent in 2H21 and rose sharply in 1Q22. A higher inventory level will lead to future revenue support when demand is strong but, when market demand reverses, high inventory becomes a heavy burden on financial reports.

In 2Q22, notebook computer panel shipments dropped by 24.3% QoQ, and this quarterly decline was much higher than the 17.7% QoQ decline in shipments of whole devices. This means that brands have begun to curb inventory and greatly reduce panel purchases. Looking at a wider perspective, the beginning of every downward economic cycle related to consumer electronics is accompanied by demand reversal and inventory problems. The Russian-Ukrainian war was only the last straw that led to this reversal．

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TrendForce’s research shows that material shortages, logistical delays, and relief subsidies for the American people not only supported global TV panel shipments in 1H21, but also drove an extended rise in quotations. However, as end product inventory climbed, stocking momentum fell rapidly in 2H21, not only inducing a sluggish peak season, but also bringing about a 1H22:2H22 shipment ratio that deviated from historical precedent. Shipment volume was not the only performance statistic to fluctuate in 2021. Originally planned factory closures were also delayed due to market demand, again transforming the entire industry landscape.

Looking forward to 2022, the global display production capacity of large generational fabs in 2022 will continue to grow through OLED production capacity generated by Korean panel manufacturers, the extension of LCD production, and continuing injection of maximum production capacity into the market from certain LCD production lines originating from panel manufacturers in other regions. Thus, overall TV panel supply is expected to spike dramatically. Although demand in emerging markets has recovered, TV panel quotations are also more prone to manipulation by branded panel companies than in 2021. A certain amount of momentum is expected in the end market for the stocking of TV panels. However, considering continually rising shipping and logistics costs, the unresolved global inflation issue, and life gradually returning to normal will inhibit the shipment performance of TV sets, demand for panels will also see an impact.

Therefore, after considering a number of factors, TrendForce expects global TV panel shipments to reach 281 million units in 2022, with an annual growth rate of 4.3%. As panel makers continue to implement a strategy of increasing panel size and overall shipments increase, positive growth is expected in size of shipped area.

The current global Gen5 and above large generational fab LCD panel supply and demand model shows that the growth rate of demand area cannot keep up with the growth rate of supply area and the shortfall between supply and demand in 2022 will be larger than that in 2021, which also suggests that panel manufacturers will meet tougher challenges in 2022. It is worth mentioning that there are still several key factors to be observed in 2022. For example, the closing schedule of LCD production lines at Korean panel factories, the adjustment of TV and IT panel capacity allocation, and the impact of the pandemic and war on whole device demand and component supply will all be key indicators of display industry trends leading into 2022.

（Image credit: Samsung）

Continued oversupply in the LCD display industry has led to a decline in the YoY profitability of panel manufacturers. As one of the key countries leading the technological development of the global display industry, Korean panel manufacturers took the lead in announcing a cutback in LCD TV products and a transition to OLED distribution.

The capacity of OLED large generational fabs building gradually, market share seized through slight price reductions

In 2021, the production capacity of LG Display’s Gen8.5 line in Guangzhou and Paju, South Korea continued to climb, obviously contributing to an increase in shipments. In addition, as OLED pricing dipped and LCD pricing advanced, the price gap between OLED TV panels and LCD panels diminished to a multiple of 2.5 in January, with the differential narrowing to a multiple of 1.8 by the middle of the year. In addition to the dwindling price divergence, OLED TVs are positioned as high-specification products, priced higher than ordinary LCD TVs at retail. After the contraction in profits posted by LCD brands, these companies delved industriously into the OLED market, driving growth in annual shipments of OLED TV up as much as 70.8% to 8.0 million units.

Supply completely dominated by Korean panel manufacturers, the trend will change in 2024 at the earliest

As an industry leader, LG Display officially began mass production of white OLED TV panels in 2017. LG Display’s hold on the exclusive supply of OLED products was broken after Samsung Display officially mass-produced QD OLED TV panels at the end of 2021. However, due to differing technologies, LG remains an exclusive supplier in the realm of white OLED TV panels.

In terms of Taiwanese manufacturers, AUO and Innolux have focused on the rollout of Mini and Micro LED panels but have not put much effort into large generational fabs for OLED panels. Japanese panel makers Sharp Display & SPDG likewise have not given OLEDs much thought. In terms of Chinese panel makers, although these companies are actively building small and medium generational fabs for OLED panels, the rollout of large generational fabs for OLED panels is still relatively slow. Therefore, the entire market structure may need to wait until 2024, when TCL’s T8 Gen8.5 inkjet OLED production line hits heavy volume before there is a chance to see any changes. However, according to the capacity observation currently planned by TCL, overall supply will be quite limited in the initial stages. Although HKC’s Changsha plant has a planned production capacity corresponding to a large generational fab for OLED panels, there is no clear plan for a specific mass-production timeframe. Thus, TrendForce expects that Korean panel makers will remain the vanguard of the trend towards OLED TV panels in the next 3 to 4 years.

（Image credit: Unsplash）