The European Commission initiated an investigation into Chinese electric cars in October last year, targeting BYD, SAIC Group and Geely, with plans to impose provisional tariffs on new electric cars imported from China. According to previous media reports, the plans were originally scheduled to be announced by June 5th. However, as per Reuters citing sources in a latest report, the new date for announcing the imposition of temporary tariffs has been set for June 10th, after the European Parliament election.

The sources cited in the report also mentioned that the delay was due to last-minute technical issues with the documents. As of now, the European Commission has not provided comments on this matter.

Yet, the same report further noted that the European Commission has formally warned the three Chinese electric car companies under anti-subsidy investigation that the data they provided for the investigation was insufficient.

According to trade data from 2023, for every additional 10% tariff imposed by the European Union on top of the existing 10%, Chinese electric car exporters would lose approximately $1 billion.

Reuters reported that past subsidy investigations launched by the European Union on other products imported from China resulted in additional tariffs ranging from approximately 9% to 26% for related companies, while the tariffs on the Chinese electric car companies may possbly fall between this range.

The report also indicated that China may be preparing alternative plans for future negotiations. If enough EU members oppose the temporary tariffs after four months, there might be challenges to the EU’s temporary tariffs, possibly leading to their cancellation.

According to an earlier analysis by Trendforce, with China’s subsidies gradually phasing out and the increasing market penetration of NEVs in the country, the growth rate of China’s NEV market is starting to slow. This, coupled with the growing demand for electric vehicles in overseas markets, is prompting numerous Chinese automotive brands to expand internationally. But they may have to counter various challenges, as countervailing duty investigation being one of them.

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(Photo credit: Pixabay)

According to a report from Wall Street Journal, Alphabet CFO Ruth Porat announced in a statement on May 30 that Google has committed to investing USD 2 billion in Malaysia. The investment includes building its first data center, expanding Google Cloud, and further developing artificial intelligence (AI).

Porat highlighted that this will be Google’s largest investment project in Malaysia. Google estimates that this investment will contribute over USD 3.2 billion to Malaysia’s GDP and create 26,500 jobs by 2030.

As per a report from Bloomberg, Google stated that in addition to developing cloud computing services, it will also support AI literacy programs for students and educators.

In its earnings call in April, Porat mentioned that the significant year-over-year increase in capital expenditures over recent quarters reflects Alphabet’s confidence in the potential of AI. She projected that the quarterly capital expenditures for the second to fourth quarters of this year would be comparable to or slightly higher than those in the first quarter.

On May 2, Microsoft Corp. announced that it will invest USD 2.2 billion in Malaysia over the next four years to support the country’s digital transformation. The investment projects include developing digital infrastructure, creating AI skill opportunities, establishing a National AI Excellence Center, and enhancing Malaysia’s cybersecurity capabilities.

Earlier this week, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announced the National Semiconductor Strategy, which includes providing at least USD 5.3 billion in financial support and training 60,000 semiconductor engineers, aiming to make Malaysia a global chip hub.

Amidst the U.S.-China rivalry and other geopolitical tensions, global companies are seeking to diversify their supply chains. Facing competition between the U.S. and China, Malaysia is reportedly keen to maintain a neutral position in the semiconductor supply chain landscape. According to the Malaysian Investment Development Authority (MIDA), the country currently provides 13% of global testing and packaging.

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(Photo credit: Google)

In response to US export bans, NVIDIA, the global leader in AI chips, has commenced to sell H20, its AI chip tailored for the Chinese market earlier this year. However, an oversupply caused the chip to be priced lower than its rival, Huawei, in some cases even at an over 10% discount, according to the latest report by Reuters.

The US Department of Commerce restricted the export of NVIDIA AI chips to China due to concerns about their potential military use in late 2022. In response, NVIDIA has repeatedly reduced product performance to comply with US regulations. The H20 chip, derived from the H800, is specifically designed as a ‘special edition’ for the Chinese market.

However, due to the abundant supply in the market, citing sources familiar with the matter, Reuters noted that H20 chips are being sold at a discount of over 10% compared to Huawei’s Ascend 910B, the most powerful AI chip from the Chinese tech giant.

The chip is reportedly to be sold at approximately 100,000 yuan per unit, while Huawei 910B sold at over 120,000 yuan per unit.

The decreasing prices underscore the difficulties NVIDIA encounters in its China operations amid U.S. sanctions on AI chip exports and rising competition from local rivals.

According to a previous report by The Information, major tech companies such as Alibaba, Baidu, ByteDance, and Tencent have been instructed to reduce their spending on foreign-made chips like NVIDIA’s, according to sources cited by the media outlet.

(Photo credit: Huawei)

Due to escalating geopolitical risks, Tesla is reportedly requesting its suppliers to begin manufacturing components and parts outside of China and Taiwan as early as 2025.

According to a report from Nikkei News on May 23rd, citing sources from the supply chain, suppliers of printed circuit boards, panels, and electronic controllers for models sold outside of China have recently received requests from Tesla to avoid China and Taiwan. The reason cited is the increasing geopolitical risks in the Greater China region prior to the U.S. presidential election. The objective of this move is to create alternative supply sources for markets outside of China to avoid disruptions in the supply chain.

Reportedly, a Taiwan-based supplier of Tesla revealed that Tesla wants all components to be OOC, OOT, meaning ‘out of China’ and ‘out of Taiwan.’ Allegedly, they hope this proposal can be implemented in new projects next year. Tesla is said to have made this request before the US government increased tariffs on Chinese electric cars fourfold to 100%.

Nikkei News’ report also indicates that Tesla has discussed this issue with suppliers in Japan, South Korea, and other Asian countries. A component supplier source cited in the same report mentioned that his company has responded to Tesla’s request by expanding production in Thailand. The source claimed that for many customers like Tesla, the “China Plus One” strategy—which involves diversifying investments beyond China into other countries—also includes avoiding Taiwan.

The report further cited sources, indicating that American car manufacturers such as General Motors and Ford are also instructing their suppliers to explore on relocating their electronic production lines away from China and Taiwan. However, they have not formally made requests similar to Tesla’s.

Another source cited in the report remarked that Tesla is the most proactive among American automakers in wanting to avoid risks associated with China and Taiwan, but implementing the OOC and OOT strategy is indeed challenging and costly.

Tesla has previously placed orders with TSMC for numerous chips related to electric vehicles. For instance, the supercomputer chip “D1” is utilizing TSMC’s 7nm technology along with advanced packaging processes.

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(Photo credit: Tesla)

On May 14, 2024, the US administration announced that it would increase tariffs on Chinese new energy vehicles from 25% to 100%. Additionally, tariffs will be imposed on Chinese products such as batteries, chips, medical supplies, and critical mineral raw materials, affecting an estimated total value of USD 18 billion in Chinese imports.

The United States believes that China’s substantial state subsidies and excess production capacity allow Chinese products to penetrate the European and American markets at low costs.

TrendForce Insights:

1. Impact of Tariff Increase on Chinese Electric Car Imports in the US Market Is Minimal

According to sales statistics from the first quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024 in the US electric car market, only Geely, among the Chinese electric car groups actively operating in the US market, holds a market share of merely 2%.

By the first quarter of 2024, this share had further declined to just 1%. In fact, Chinese automakers, anticipating such measures, have already shifted their focus away from the US market to regions such as Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Russia. Therefore, the current increase in tariffs is expected to have minimal impact on China’s new energy car industry.

2. Consumers Focus on Electric Car Prices, Not Nationality

The affordability of Chinese electric cars stems from China’s long-standing high level of self-sufficiency in the entire electric vehicle supply chain, from complete vehicles to components, especially in the battery sector, which accounts for the highest proportion of total vehicle costs.

Coupled with government subsidy policies aimed at attracting consumers to purchase electric cars and increasing the overall market size, this further enhances the cost advantage of various components.

Additionally, according to data released by Gallup in April 2024, only 36% of people with an annual income below USD 40,000 would seriously consider purchasing an electric car, while those with incomes between USD 40,000 and USD 100,000 or more have a purchase intention of 45-50%.

Therefore, the high cost of electric cars remains the primary reason why consumers are currently unwilling to switch to electric cars, rather than being a matter of the car’s “nationality.”

3. Is the Decoupling Strategy for Electric Vehicles from China a Cure or a Poison?

The US administration’s decision to increase tariffs can protect the US fossil fuel car industry in the short term. With consumers unable to access cheap Chinese electric cars, they may opt for US fossil fuel cars.

While this measure may prolong the life of the US automotive industry chain, it could hinder both US and global carbon reduction goals and reduce the international competitiveness of US car manufacturers in the electric vehicle sector. 

Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares has stated that increasing tariffs will not truly protect his company, and the only option is to continue fighting. Therefore, while higher tariffs serve as a protective shield for the domestic automotive industry chain, car manufacturers ultimately still need to face the harsh reality of global market competition.

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