Ford announced the withdrawal of its full-year financial forecast due to the impact of the recent labor strike and ongoing challenges in the EV sector. Most consumers are reluctant to pay higher prices for electric cars compared to traditional or hybrid vehicles. Ford also postponed its planned $12 billion investment in expanding electric vehicle production capacity but remains committed to its goal of advancing its electric vehicle business.

TrendForce’s Insights:

1. Slower Market Demand Spurs Automakers to Rethink EV Strategies

The United Auto Workers (UAW) union initiated a six-week strike in Detroit starting on September 15, 2023, motivated by demands for improved compensation and benefits. The strike came to an end when consensus was reached with Ford, Stellantis, and GM (General Motors), resulting in the signing of a new contract.

According to predictions from Deutsche Bank, this new agreement will add an estimated $6.2 to $7.2 billion in costs for each of the three major automakers. This cost increase is nearly equivalent to the expense of building an electric vehicle platform. Compounded by the impact of slowing demand for global new energy vehicles (BEV and PHEV), with growth rates decreasing from 54% in 2022 to 30% in 2023, Ford announced the suspension of its $12 billion electric vehicle investment plan. This plan includes its partnership with SK On for a battery factory and a partly reduction in production capacity for the Mustang Mach-E.

2. Automakers Must Adopt More Practical EV Development Strategies to Address Price and Range Concerns

The slowdown in electric vehicle market demand stems from the issues of high vehicle prices and range anxiety, which affect consumer willingness to make a purchase. Addressing these two problems requires increasing battery energy density to achieve comparable driving range to conventional vehicles and constructing an adequate charging infrastructure. However, achieving these goals will take time and effort.

With range anxiety still unresolved and the goal of banning fossil fuel vehicles unchanged, automakers positioned between policy and the market face transition risks. At this juncture, choosing to independently develop electric vehicle platforms might add financial burden and risk, with the associated costs reflected in vehicle prices, potentially eroding competitiveness. A more practical approach would involve considering alternative development strategies, such as exploring platform outsourcing to reduce manufacturing costs.

Automakers or Tier 1 suppliers with proprietary electric vehicle platforms have the option to lease their platform production capacity to companies that are currently unable or unwilling to independently develop their own platforms. This strategy can increase production efficiency for lessees, allowing them to commission the production of all or some of their electric vehicle models from the lessor, ultimately reducing manufacturing costs and accelerating the release of new vehicle models.

By doing so, companies can maintain their market share in the electric vehicle race while waiting for the right opportunity to reevaluate the potential for developing their own electric vehicle platforms. In summary, as the demand for electric vehicles slows down, automakers will face tighter financial constraints, making it crucial for them to explore how to collaboratively leverage existing resources to create electric vehicles that align with market demands.

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• [News] Ford Shifts EV Investment Focus Amidst Fierce Price Competition

(Photo credit: Ford’s Facebook)

According to Yahoo’s report, recent developments in China’s automotive industry, particularly the electric vehicle sector, have been a mixed bag. While some companies have reported impressive export performance and surging delivery volumes, the overall market has faced challenges due to weak consumer demand and intense price wars.

Even NIO, which had previously pledged to enhance efficiency without layoffs, recently announced a workforce reduction of approximately 10%, affecting around 3,000 employees. This unexpected move has sent shockwaves through the industry and suggests that a layoff storm may be approaching the Chinese automotive sector.

Amidst numerous recent developments in the Chinese auto market, the most widely discussed topic is the announcement by NIO’s Chairman, William Li, regarding a workforce reduction of approximately 10%, with specific adjustments to be completed by November.

NIO, known as a market favorite and listed in both the U.S. and Hong Kong, has been considered one of the leading players in China’s new force of automotive companies. However, it now finds itself in the challenging position of staff downsizing, signaling a potentially tough year-end for China’s automotive industry.

While NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto, often hailed as representatives of the new forces in China’s automobile industry, had been at the forefront, NIO’s performance in 2023 seems to be lagging behind its peers.

In contrast to Li Auto, which has seen ten consecutive months of rising sales figures this year, and XPeng, which achieved a 292% year-on-year increase in October and set its record for single-month deliveries, NIO’s performance has been more volatile. Since reaching a peak delivery volume of 20,462 vehicles in July, NIO has struggled to maintain a consistent delivery rate of 20,000 vehicles per month.

Additionally, NIO’s losses have continued to grow quarter by quarter, with the company posting over ¥20 billion in net losses over the past year. In the same period, Li Auto recorded nearly ¥2 billion in profits, while XPeng faced losses of nearly ¥10 billion. Consequently, NIO holds the distinction of being the leader in losses among the new energy vehicle manufacturers. NIO’s layoffs serve as a cautionary signal, highlighting the pressing need to cut costs and enhance efficiency.

Amid China’s economic slowdown and intensified market competition, NIO’s challenges represent just a microcosm of the broader Chinese automotive industry. It’s not just NIO; in 2023, several automotive companies have already begun layoffs or faced closures. Examples include Levdeo, which filed for bankruptcy; WM Motor, which already closed its doors; and Enovate, which announced a suspension of operations.

Furthermore, the chill in the market is also affecting automotive supply chain companies. An industry insider candidly revealed that except for BYD and Li Auto, most car manufacturers are in the process of downsizing, indicating that the Chinese automotive industry is currently experiencing a major shake-up and a fierce battle for survival.

(Photo credit: Pixabay)

According to TechNews’ report, Delta Electronics has held its third-quarter earnings conference yesterday, announcing at the beginning that it will spin off its EV business next year.

In the future, the company’s business will be divided into four major categories: power electronics, transportation, automation, and infrastructure, highlighting its commitment to the EV sector. Delta’s Chairman, Yancey Hai, pointed out that although the electric vehicle industry is currently facing some headwinds, the overall trend is still positive.

Delta Electronics reported consolidated revenues of NT$107.795 billion for the third quarter, representing a 7.2% increase from the previous quarter and a 1.45% increase year-on-year, marking a historic high for a single quarter. The accumulated consolidated revenues for the first three quarters reached NT$301.206 billion, an 8% year-on-year growth, setting a new high for the same period in previous years.

Delta Electronics’ gross margin for the third quarter was 29.57%, a slight decrease from the 30.29% of the same period last year, which had a high base effect. The average gross margin for the first three quarters was 28.8%, slightly lower than the 29.1% of the same period last year.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, there is considerable attention on AI and EV developments, especially in light of recent events such as the strikes by the United Auto Workers (UAW) in the United States and concerns from American EV manufacturer Tesla and battery maker Panasonic about EV sales.

However, Delta Electronics’ Chairman Yancey Hai mentioned that while there is currently a lot of noise in the EV market, with Tesla experiencing slower sales and price reductions and the UAW strikes, the long-term outlook for EVs remains positive. Most countries have set schedules for phasing out traditional fossil-fuel vehicles, indicating a consistent trend for the future.

Yancey Hai mentioned that the primary reason for slower EV sales is the higher price of EVs compared to traditional fossil-fuel vehicles. EVs also cannot rely solely on government subsidies to boost sales. Additionally, there is still room for price reductions in the EV market. EVs have simpler construction compared to traditional vehicles, but the current high cost of batteries is a limiting factor.

In terms of orders, there will still be many new vehicle models introduced in the future. The strikes by American car manufacturers will have minimal impact on Delta Electronics. While the company may not double its growth this year, it is expected to see at least an 80% growth.

Looking ahead to the future and considering fourth-quarter revenue, CEO Ping Cheng stated that the fourth quarter will be similar to the third quarter, with improvements expected in various aspects next year compared to this year. However, there are no significant signs of a rebound in consumer electronics products and Chinese automation this year. Changes will be limited.

Consumer electronics products are awaiting the depletion of customer inventory, and next year is expected to be better than this year. As for Chinese automation, it has been impacted by the US-China trade tensions, reduced manufacturing investments, and China’s economic development. Industrial automation business also hasn’t shown growth this year.

Regarding the booming AI sector, Ping Cheng pointed out that there is currently a global arms race in AI, with the development of large AI data centers. Delta has already witnessed a significant demand in this area.

However, since AI-related processes are different from traditional servers, there is still work to be done in terms of setup. Regarding cooling, Delta has been developing air cooling, water cooling, and immersion cooling solutions. As the power density of AI continues to increase in the future, the demand for cooling will also rise.

Hai stated that the current revenue contribution from EVs is around 12%, and they expect it to increase further next year. They’re expecting the EV growth to maintain 40% to 50% momentum in the coming year. As for AI servers, it currently accounts for about 15% of the power segment, and they expect its growth to be faster in the future.

(Photo credit: Delta’s Facebook)

Xiaomi’s subsidiary, Shanghai Xiaomi Jingming Technology Co., Ltd., was established recently with a registered capital of 10 million yuan (RMB). The company’s scope of operations includes car sales, car wash services, vehicle repair and maintenance, small and micro passenger car rental services, chauffeur services, and internet sales.

The establishment of this new company is closely tied to Xiaomi’s foray into the electric vehicle (EV) industry.

On March 30, 2021, during a Xiaomi product launch event, the company’s founder, Lei Jun, announced Xiaomi’s entry into the smart electric vehicle sector. Following this announcement, Xiaomi formally approved the EV project and committed to setting up a wholly-owned subsidiary to oversee its EV business. Xiaomi allocated an initial investment of 10 billion RMB for this venture, with a projected investment of 10 billion USD over the next decade.

In a recent development, Xiaomi’s Chairman, Lei Jun, expressed his optimism about Xiaomi’s electric vehicle project on October 25, stating that the project is progressing smoothly.

Sources familiar with the matter disclosed that Xiaomi’s electric vehicle project has multiple platform generations in development, with the first platform set for release in 2024 and the second in 2025.

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•  [News] Xiaomi EV Reportedly Finalizes Battery Supplier List, CALB and CATL Chosen
• [News] Xiaomi Begins Trial Production of 50 Prototype Cars per Week

(Photo credit: Xiaomi’s Facebook)

After a grueling six-week standoff, the United Auto Workers (UAW) has reached a groundbreaking labor agreement with General Motors (GM). This news comes after resolving disputes with Ford and Stellantis, the parent company of Chrysler, signaling a turning point in the largest auto industry strike in recent history.

According to reports from Reuters and The Wall Street Journal, the UAW and General Motors reached a preliminary agreement on October 30, officially putting an end to the six-week-long strike. It is reported that the UAW has successfully secured wage increases from General Motors similar to those obtained from Ford and Stellantis.

Over a four-year period, the average wage increase reaches 25%, and retirement benefits receive additional enhancements. When including other allowances, the maximum wage increase reaches 33%. The details are subject to approval by union members’ vote.

In response to the agreement, GM’s CEO, Barbara, stated that the new terms would enable the company to continue investing while offering well-compensated employment. She eagerly anticipates the return of all employees to their workstations.

The UAW initiated localized strikes against the three automotive giants – GM, Ford, and Stellantis – starting on September 15. These strikes grew in scale over time, primarily targeting larger and more profitable factories to exert pressure on the management. At Its Peak, Nearly 50,000 People Joined the Strike, with President Biden Personally Expressing Support by Visiting the Strike Sites.

The lengthy strike has finally concluded, bringing a sigh of relief to automakers. However, it has had a significant financial impact, with both General Motors and Ford canceling their annual earnings forecasts. General Motors estimates the strike resulted in approximately $200 million in losses each week.

Analysts anticipate that the new labor agreement will substantially increase production costs for the big three automakers, potentially undermining their competitiveness against union-free electric vehicle manufacturers like Tesla and foreign brands such as Toyota.

Notably, the union has secured greater influence over capital decisions during negotiations, including the power to initiate strikes when a manufacturer contemplates plant closures.

While the three major automakers currently express their intent to keep existing factories operational during their transition towards electric vehicles, contractual constraints may force them to continue running unprofitable facilities in times of economic downturn or declining sales.

Read more

• [News] Ford Shifts EV Investment Focus Amidst Fierce Price Competition

(Photo credit: GM’s facebook)