Thanks to the momentum of dual carbon targets, global demand for solar PV installations continues to rise, leading to growing demand for encapsulation films, a key material that determines the quality and longevity of PV modules. Recently, TrendForce published the rankings for global PV encapsulation film shipments in the first half of 2024. Companies like First, Sveck, Betterial, HiUV , Sinopont, Cybrid, and Lushan made the list. With Betterial’s strong entry into the top top ranks, a new TOP 3 list for encapsulation film shipments has emerged.

New Rankings of Top3, with the Market Share Accounting for More Than 75%

According to TrendForce, the top seven companies in encapsulation film shipments in the first half of 2024 are as follows:

Top7 Companies of Global Encapsulation Film Shipment in H1 2024

Overall, competition in the global PV encapsulation film market is becoming increasingly intense, with leading companies like First, Sveck, and Betterial standing out. TrendForce estimates that based on a module production of 283 GW in the first half of 2024, the corresponding demand for encapsulation films will reach 2.57 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 15%, expanding the market space.

From the rankings, the combined shipments of the TOP 3 companies exceeded 1.94 billion square meters, accounting for over 75% of the market share. First maintained its leading position with the highest shipment volume, followed closely by Sveck and Betterial, both showing continued growth and strong potential.

In terms of short-term industry trends, second-tier manufacturers are rapidly capturing market share, expanding their presence swiftly. A notable change in the rankings is Betterial’s leap into the TOP 3 with robust shipment growth, trailing Sveck by only 10 million square meters, making it the standout performer in the first-half rankings.

Diversified Encapsulation Requirements Boost the Differentiated Market Competition

In the first half of 2024, global demand for PV encapsulation films continued to grow. As the industry marches forward, two key characteristics of the global PV encapsulation film market stand out:

1. Looking ahead, encapsulation film shipments will maintain a steady growth trend. On one hand, the market continues to expand. But at the same time, due to declining prices in the supply chain and fluctuations in raw material prices, the industry is experiencing a scenario where production increases but prices decrease.

2. There are continuously breakthroughs in various PV module technologies, and the current popular technologies in the market are imposing higher and more diverse packaging requirements on encapsulation film products. This requires film manufacturers to have the ability to continuously collaborate with downstream module manufacturers in technology iteration and product verification, gradually forming a differentiated competition pattern.

Global Layout Expands Further, Overseas Capacity Advantage

Based on a deep understanding of the global PV market, and to enhance global delivery capabilities and flexibility. Leading companies like First and Betterial are accelerating their expansion, setting up production bases domestically while steadily deploying to regions such as Southeast Asia, further advancing their global footprint.

Overseas Layout of Major Encapsulant Manufacturers

As for the overseas capacity, with the construction of new encapsulation film production lines and technological upgrades, companies have significantly expanded their capacity. First was one of the first companies in the PV encapsulation film industry to establish overseas capacity, having set up a wholly-owned subsidiary in Thailand as early as 2016.

Additionally, Betterial, which has experienced explosive growth in recent years, has laid out clear plans to expand capacity in overseas bases such as in Vietnam and Indonesia. Its Vietnam base has already surpassed 30 GW in planned encapsulation film capacity, making it the first company to invest and mass-produce encapsulation films in Vietnam. With the imminent launch of its Indonesian encapsulation film project, Betterial is set to secure a significant advantage in expanding its overseas market.

A more comprehensive global layout means that these companies are equipped with stronger global supply and localized sales capabilities. In this new phase of technological iteration, which company will leverage higher-quality products and more comprehensive services to stride forward globally? Let’s wait and see. The time for diverse, differentiated competition is coming.

(Photo credit: Betterial)

Polysilicon

In the polysilicon market, post-holiday trading sentiment remains subdued, with overall deliveries primarily focusing on delivering previous orders. After the recent price hikes for polysilicon, trading activity has been tepid. Ingot manufacturers are mainly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, purchasing only as needed.

Polysilicon output is expected to see a slight rebound of nearly 2% this month, reaching about 130,000 to 140,000 tons. The demand for polysilicon may decrease further, and surplus supply could potentially become more serious this month.

Polysilicon prices are likely to stabilize this month under manufacturers’ firm stance, with future observations focusing on capacity adjustments and the impact of pre-stocking for the polysilicon futures market on the supply-demand balance.

Wafers

On the supply side, wafer production continues its downward trend month-on-month, estimated to be in the 48-49 GW range. On the demand side, the downward trend in cell production persists, and with module manufacturers continuously forcing prices down, the price pressure on wafers remains high, offering limited support.

The demand for 182N wafers has turned downward, and the proportion of production in this category has also been reduced this month. Meanwhile, the share of 210RN wafers in total output has increased significantly, with 210 wafers (R-type) accounting for nearly 20%. The gap caused by adjustments in downstream product sizes is rapidly being filled, leading to an oversupply of wafer and further price pressure on wafer manufacturers.

Cells

Cell production is expected to decrease by 4-5% month-on-month, with cell production adjusted down to 50-51 GW. This trend of production divergence is expected to intensify in Q4. On the demand side, major manufacturers have seen a slight recovery in orders due to the booming ground-mount installations, but overall module production recovery remains limited. The intense price competition in the module sector makes it difficult to support cell prices.

Prices for certain sizes have been revised downward this week, with P-type M10 and G12 both falling to RMB 0.27/W, while N-type G12R saw a faster production surplus, dropping to RMB 0.27/W as well.

Modules

Module production this month shows divergence. Overall, monthly production is up by 3-4%, reaching 49-50 GW. On the demand side, centralized PV installations have led to a slight recovery in orders for some manufacturers, but there has been no clear recovery in distributed PV projects. Overseas, inventory backlog issues in Europe are intensifying, leading to another month-on-month decline in module prices.

Prices for all types of modules remained stable this week. For bifacial M10-TOPCon modules, major manufacturers have adjusted their pricing range to RMB 0.65-0.73/W, while smaller manufacturers are offloading inventory at lower prices around RMB 0.65/W to return cash flow. For bifacial G12-HJT modules, mainstream pricing is concentrated in the RMB 0.75-0.83/W range.

PV Glass

On the supply side, production is expected to decrease month-on-month due to line maintenance and kiln closures. On the demand side, September saw relatively low stocking levels among module manufacturers. With the expected increase in module production post-holiday, stocking activity should pick up. However, rising inventories and a continued decline in upstream soda ash prices will continue to exert significant pressure on PV glass prices.

TrendForce has released the latest PV spot price, revealing the supply and demand dynamics in the market. Polysilicon and Wafer prices have shown a divergence over the week, whereas Module and Cell prices have remained steady.

Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices have diverged throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 57/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 55/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 64/KG.

The top-tier polysilicon companies are in a positive transaction phase, having essentially wrapped up January 2024 orders. Some businesses are still in the negotiation phase.

Regarding order prices, N-type polysilicon has maintained stability, primarily fueled by increased N-type wafer output and heightened demand resulting from a shift in part of the P-type wafer production capacity to N-type wafers.

Conversely, P-type polysilicon prices have experienced fluctuations and a continued decline. On one hand, the newly added production capacity has yielded low-quality polysilicon, exacerbating the oversupply issue for P-type polysilicon.

On the other hand, diminishing downstream output of P-type wafers has impacted the demand for P-type polysilicon, contributing to its declining price. Looking at the supply side, the influx of new production capacity in January is steadily increasing polysilicon output, with a medium single-digit month-on-month growth rate.

On the demand side, crystal pulling manufacturers maintain a high activation rate, but the output of N-type crystal pulling is rapidly rising.

In summary, this month shows positive supply and demand dynamics for N-type polysilicon, providing robust support for its price. However, the outlook for P-type polysilicon is bleak due to the production of low-quality output from the newly added capacity, creating an imbalance in the demand and supply relationship.

The expectation is that the price gap between N-type and P-type polysilicon will widen. This week, the prices of rechargeable and dense polysilicon have further declined, while N-type polysilicon remains stable.

Wafer

The prices of wafer have diverged throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.90/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 3.00/Pc and M10 N-type is priced at RMB2.25/Pc.

Regarding P-type wafers, the pricing for 182mm and 210mm P-type wafers stands at 1.9 yuan and 3.0 yuan per piece, respectively, closely aligned with their cost structures. On the supply side, the swift shift of wafer manufacturers towards the production of N-type wafers has significantly diminished the output proportion of P-type wafers.

Concurrently, the shutdown of production capacities for downstream P-type cells on the demand side indicates a gloomy market for P-type products. Additionally, the stagnant price is attributed to low trading volumes, and P-type wafers have evolved into customized products, with their price trends and trading volumes contingent on the delivery of P-type projects.

Turning to N-type wafers, the supply side witnesses a double-digit increase in the output proportion of N-type wafers, projected to reach 70%. On the demand side, cell manufacturers are predominantly shifting towards N-type products, providing robust support for the demand for N-type wafers.

However, it is crucial to note the potential risk of increasing inventory for N-type wafers due to oversupply. There remains a possibility that the supply of N-type wafers will exceed demand, leading to fluctuations and a gradual decline in N-type wafer prices.

Moreover, concerning wafer sizes, rectangle wafers will dominate the N-type wafer market, and as the trading volume of various rectangle wafer sizes increases, we can expect more quoted prices for different sizes of N-type rectangle wafers. This week, the price of P-type wafers has remained unchanged, while the price of N-type modules has dropped to 2.1 yuan per piece.

Cell

Cell prices have remained stable this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.37/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.38/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.46/W.

Concerning P-type cells, the pricing for 182mm and 210mm P-type cells is set at 0.37 yuan and 0.38 yuan per watt, respectively. Notably, P-type cell prices have dipped below the cost line, leading to the essentially complete shutdown of its production capacity. Once cell manufacturers complete the delivery of ongoing projects, the production capacity for P-type cells will be cleared out.

On the supply side, major cell manufacturers have extensively halted P-type production capacities, resulting in a sharp decline in P-type cell output. Additionally, the demand from module manufacturers for P-type cells is rapidly diminishing.

With a decrease in both supply and demand, P-type cell prices are currently at a standstill. Specialized manufacturers are taking the strategic approach of halting production and stockpiling inventory to maximize profits when delivering the remaining P-type products.

On the flip side, regarding N-type cells, the supply side sees a higher share of total cell output. However, on the cost front, the positive support from the prices of N-type polysilicon and wafers is aiding in stabilizing N-type cell prices.

On the demand side, there is a significant increase in customer demand. Consequently, N-type cell prices have remained stable this week, supported by a balanced combination of supply, demand, and cost factors.

Module

Module prices have remained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.98/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 1.00/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.00/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.01/W.

On the demand side, module manufacturers are experiencing a decline in the month-on-month growth rate of modules in January. With the conclusion of the last quarter’s earnings and the approach of the holiday season, both domestic and overseas demand have slowed down.

Module manufacturers are displaying a reduced inclination to boost output, opting to cut production to varying extents. The anticipated order amounts for January are relatively pessimistic on the demand side. Even top-tier manufacturers with existing orders supporting their production are witnessing a decreasing trend in order volume, let alone other manufacturers with fewer orders who find themselves compelled to cut or halt production.

Regarding domestic demand, January marks the off-season, and the purchasing demand for ground-based and distributed solar projects is at its lowest point for the entire year. However, overseas markets are showing signs of recovery, with a positive turn in month-on-month export volumes.

Furthermore, the continuous decline in module prices has spurred demand in the Indian market, while Brazil and Saudi Arabia experience a boom due to supportive government policies. Nevertheless, the export to the European market has not yet turned positive, and it will take time to deplete existing inventory and witness a recovery in demand. This week, both P-type and N-type module prices have remained stable.

Source to TrendForce, the most recent update on solar materials pricing indicates an ongoing decline in Polysilicon and Module prices, while Wafer and Cell prices are holding steady for the time being.

• Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices continue to decline throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 64/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 62/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 66/KG.

Looking at the market transaction dynamics, there’s not a significant volume of orders being placed. Some companies are gearing up for December’s order negotiations. Observing the price trend, polysilicon manufacturers are adjusting prices for both new and existing orders. Even some previously high-priced orders have experienced declines.

Furthermore, the average price of N-type polysilicon in new orders is generally below the 70000 yuan/ton mark. On the supply side, numerous projects are now in production, leading to a constant increase in the marginal increment of polysilicon and further swelling polysilicon inventory. Consequently, polysilicon manufacturers are grappling with increased pressure to de-stock.

Despite a month-on-month rise in operation rates for professional wafer manufacturers, creating additional demand for polysilicon, the surplus supply remains challenging to address.

This week, polysilicon prices continue their downward trajectory, and there’s a significant oversupply of polysilicon. Moreover, with customer installation demand still not turning positive, crystal pulling manufacturers are adopting a pessimistic stance toward future polysilicon prices, displaying a cautious approach to purchasing polysilicon.

On the flip side, polysilicon manufacturers are determined to maintain current prices and show no signs of reducing prices to clear inventory. In conclusion, a tug-of-war in pricing dynamics is evident between buyers and sellers.

• Wafer

The prices of wafer have maintained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 2.30/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 3.30/Pc and M10 N-type is priced at RMB2.40/Pc.

On the supply side, wafer inventory has returned to the reasonable range, sitting at approximately 1.3-1.5 billion pieces. Analyzing various wafer types, the inventory of 210mm P-type wafers has seen a notable decrease, with the consumption rate slowing due to weakened demand.

With the alleviation of inventory pressure, specialized wafer manufacturers are ramping up their operational rates, resulting in a slight month-on-month increase in wafer output. Turning to the demand side, cell manufacturers are indicating a reduction in the production of 182mm P-type cells, while there’s no change in output for other cell types.

Consequently, the purchasing demand for 182mm P-type wafers is expected to decrease. Although wafer prices are holding steady this week, considering the divergent operational rates among downstream cell manufacturers, a future divergence in prices between N-type and P-type wafers is anticipated.

Moreover, attention should be directed towards whether the demand and supply relationship can sustain stable prices after the higher wafer activation rates lead to an increase in wafer output during the same period.

• Cell

Cell prices have maintained stable this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.46/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.56/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.49/W.

On the supply side, cell inventory can currently sustain for about six to seven days, but the pressure on inventory is mounting as downstream demand gradually declines. We’re currently in the midst of the technology iteration phase for N-type and P-type cells.

The production capacity of 182mm P-type cells has significantly dropped, leading to a decline in its OEM fees to 1.0-1.2 yuan. Given the current cell price and the manufacturing cost, the production line for 182mm P-type cells is operating at a loss, while the 210mm P-type cells are still profitable, thanks to orders this month.

However, as order deliveries conclude, the tense supply and demand dynamics are expected to ease. On the demand side, downstream module prices continue to slide, prompting module manufacturers to push for a reduction in cell prices. Additionally, customer demand is sluggish, and buyers are adopting a more cautious approach to future purchases.

This week, cell prices remain relatively stable, but production of 182mm P-type cells has been significantly reduced due to sustained losses, leading to a simultaneous decline in demand and supply. Nevertheless, there is still support from order deliveries for 210mm P-type cells.

In conclusion, with module prices consistently decreasing, we anticipate that cell prices will face increasing pressure in the coming weeks.

• Module

Module prices have gone down throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 1.03/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 1.04/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.04/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.05/W.

On the supply side, prices quoted by leading manufacturers to their dealers have plummeted to less than 1 yuan/W, and bidding prices for recent projects are hitting unprecedented lows. The competition among module manufacturers has reached a fever pitch, driving prices in the sector to their rock bottom.

As the N-type and P-type technology undergo iteration, production capacity is slated to be officially cleared at its current low price. Shifting to the demand side, October saw a month-on-month decrease in new PV installations, indicating a clear decline in installation demand, according to statistics from the NEA.

Although distributed PV installed capacity remains robust, it cannot sustain a significant increase, and centralized ground installations are entering their off-season. Additionally, there’s no indication of a rebound in overseas demand, making it challenging for customer demand for module purchases to turn positive.

As the year draws to a close and earinings reports will be reported, manufacturers are grappling with the pressure to meet annual goals, intensifying the need to clear inventory. However, they find themselves in a precarious position in negotiations with customers, compelling them to further reduce prices to facilitate more shipments.

In summary, module prices are experiencing a decline this week and are anticipated to further decrease in the near future.

Source to TrendForce, the latest solar materials price revealed that Polysilicon prices are declining due to decreased orders and increased supply; Wafer prices remain stable but face potential pressure.

• Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices continue to decline throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 65/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 63/KG, and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 68/KG.

Looking at the market transaction dynamics, orders took a hit this week, and collectively signing orders within a centralized period has ceased. Observing the price trends, major manufacturers are experiencing a decline in new orders, causing a further narrowing of the transaction prices for both N-type and P-type polysilicon.

Looking at the supply side, the new production capacity of leading polysilicon manufacturers is set to come online this month, contributing to an uptick in output. Consequently, the polysilicon supply will continue to outpace demand, leading to a further increase in polysilicon inventory, which has now reached the range of 90,000 to 120,000 tons this week. Shifting the focus to the downstream industrial chain, the wafer inventory has reverted to a reasonable level, and there’s a slight uptick in the activation rate of crystal-pulling manufacturers.

This has resulted in an increased demand for polysilicon. However, this heightened demand is insufficient to counterbalance the marginal increase in polysilicon supply. In summary, the price of polysilicon is on a downward trajectory, and with new production capacities slated to come online by year-end, the short-term supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to be rectified.

Compounding this, the absence of concrete demand from customers indicates an anticipated further dip in polysilicon prices. The inventory of N-type polysilicon is expanding, intensifying pressure on upstream raw materials. Consequently, the support for N-type polysilicon prices is diminishing, and the price gap between N-type and P-type polysilicon is expected to shrink.

• Wafer

The prices of wafers have remained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for the M10 P-type wafer is RMB 2.30/Pc, while the G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 3.30/Pc and the M10 N-type is priced at RMB2.40/Pc.

On the supply side, there are indications that specialized polysilicon manufacturers may ramp up their operating rates, primarily due to a reduction in wafer inventory. The current inventory of wafers has dwindled to the range of 1.4-1.6 billion pieces, bringing substantial relief to wafer manufacturers from inventory pressures. Switching to the demand side, the pressure on cell demand persists, with cell inventory remaining unconsumed.

Consequently, some cell manufacturers are contemplating production cuts to mitigate potential future losses. This slowdown in demand from cell manufacturers is causing a sluggishness in the demand for wafers. Currently, both wafer and cell prices are hovering close to their production costs, empowering manufacturers on both fronts to engage in assertive bargaining. As a result, it is anticipated that price negotiations will reach a stalemate in the short term.

In summary, wafer prices have held steady this week, but it’s crucial to remain vigilant as wafer prices might face renewed pressure. This could be triggered by a decline in upstream raw material prices and the persistent lack of positive momentum in downstream demand.

• Cell

Cell prices have been different with the G12 cell price rebounding and other types remaining stable this week. The mainstream concluded price for the M10 cell is RMB 0.46/W, while the G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.56/W. The price of the M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.49/W.

On the supply side, the overall cell inventory is proving challenging to deplete due to the persistently sluggish downstream demand. This situation is exerting increased pressure on cell inventory levels. Additionally, faced with the challenge of low cell prices, a portion of the high-cost P-type cell production capacity has been gradually scaled back. If prices continue to decline in the future, this segment of production capacity may eventually phase out.

This underscores the evolving landscape of P-type and N-type cell technologies, prompting cell manufacturers to reassess how they manage the older production capacity of P-type cells. Shifting to the demand side, module inventory remains elevated, yet overseas customer demand remains weak even during the peak season. In summary, cell prices have remained stable this week. With the support from the delivery of orders this month, there is intense demand for 210mm P-type cells, leading to a rebound in their prices.

• Module

Module prices have gone down slightly throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 1.06/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 1.08/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.07/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.09/W.

On the supply side, there’s a divergence in production schedules among module manufacturers. First-tier manufacturers are maintaining stable delivery schedules with sufficient orders, while second and third-tier manufacturers are compelled to scale back production to avert losses. Additionally, it’s crucial to monitor the impact of backhaul orders’ sale prices on domestic module prices. Turning to the demand side, overseas module inventory remains elevated, coupled with sluggish purchasing demand.

The customer demand for modules is heading into the off-season. Furthermore, the demand for distributed PV installations is struggling to turn positive due to overall weak demand. Faced with weak downstream demand, module manufacturers are adopting a strategy of lowering prices to facilitate more shipments, driven by the imperative to clear inventory by year-end. In summary, module prices are anticipated to experience a slight decline this week.

Read more:

• PV Industry Supply Chain Price Update
• PV Materials Price in Early November