In TrendForce’s latest solar energy pricing, it is revealed that upstream polysilicon and wafer transactions have reached a standstill, while downstream cell and module prices continue to decline.

• Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices continue to decline throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 70/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 68/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 75/KG.

In terms of trading, this week has shown a slight improvement compared to the stagnation of the previous week. Some small orders have been placed, but the majority of companies are still in the negotiation process. Additionally, there are ongoing discussions about transaction prices for polysilicon and crystal pulling.

Examining the price trends, there’s a notable divergence between leading manufacturers and second-tier manufacturers, with the current prices approaching the cost threshold for the latter and older capacity.

When we analyze the supply and demand dynamics, it becomes evident that as polysilicon prices continue to decline, downstream manufacturers are considering production cuts, and new production capacity might face the challenge of running at a loss right after starting operations.

Moreover, considering the projected oversupply in the future and the potential for prices to hit rock bottom, some manufacturers have realized that the profits from new production capacity may differ significantly from their expectations, prompting them to adjust their production schedules.

However, in the short term, polysilicon output is showing a month-on-month growth trend this quarter. As downstream demand decreases, polysilicon prices will likely continue to face pressure. Overall, this week has seen a decline in quoted polysilicon prices, and the price gap between N-type and P-type polysilicon continues to narrow.

• Wafer

The prices of wafer have still reduced throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 wafer is RMB 2.30/Pc, while G12 wafer is priced at RMB 3.30/Pc. The current cell prices are causing significant losses in the cell business, leading to a substantial reduction in activation rates.

The overall market turnover is currently sluggish. Additionally, the quoted prices only reflect the trend of declining wafer prices and may not accurately represent the actual transaction prices for spot goods.

On the supply side, wafer prices have continued to decline over the past two weeks. If the prices of different types of wafers keep dropping, manufacturers may find themselves in a situation where their costs exceed their selling prices.

Consequently, wafer production schedules have seen a significant reduction, forcing some second and third-tier manufacturers to maintain OEM business for meager profits. The current wafer inventory level has decreased to 1.9-2.1 billion pieces, and there are indications that prices are reaching a bottom in the market.

On the demand side, downstream cell manufacturers are gradually reducing their production schedules, and inventory issues have not been effectively resolved. As a result, cell manufacturers are becoming more cautious when it comes to purchasing wafers. This week, wafer prices have continued to decline, but the rate of decline will narrow with cost support.

However, considering the price pressure imposed by downstream consumers, their high inventory levels, and other factors, wafer prices have yet to stabilize and are likely to continue falling in the future.

• Cell

Cell prices have still declined this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.48/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.52/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.49/W.

On the supply side, current cell inventory has remained high for more than seven days. Consequently, facing pressure from both the elevated inventory levels and downstream module manufacturers, cell prices have experienced a decline.

The current price of M10 P-type cells stands at 0.48 yuan per watt, which is approaching the production cost of leading integrated manufacturers. The reduction in cell production is the current scenario.

However, the shipment pressures haven’t been alleviated, and the price gap between N-type and P-type cells has narrowed, putting both types at risk of operating at a loss due to costs exceeding their prices. On the demand side, the domestic peak season for centralized cell procurement has concluded, and there has been no significant uptick in demand in overseas markets or the distributed PV sector.

As a result, the demand for cells has weakened. With module prices also under pressure, module manufacturers are inclined to push down cell prices. Although there has been some improvement in the rate of decline for cells this week, the accumulation of cell inventory, falling upstream material prices, and sluggish downstream demand continue to exert constant pressure on cell prices.

• Module

Module prices have gone down slightly throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 1.08/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 1.11/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.09/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.12/W.

On the supply side, module prices are persistently decreasing and have come close to the cost price of integrated manufacturers. Specialized module manufacturers, in response to module prices falling below their cost, have had to reduce their production rates to avoid losses. This is evident from the reduced demand for various auxiliary materials associated with module production.

On the demand side, the primary driver of demand continues to be large domestic projects, whereas overseas demand has not shown any significant increase. The overseas market is still working through its high inventory. In domestic bidding projects, there’s a noticeable shift toward an increased proportion of N-type modules, indicating a faster transition in demand toward N-type technologies.

In the third round of centralized procurement for PV modules by Huadian Group, the quoted price stands at 0.9933 yuan per watt. In the same month, the bidding price for modules in the centralized procurement tender by CHN Energy is 0.945 yuan per watt, marking a record low within a single month.

This price trend underscores the inevitable intense competition within the module sector, as excess production capacity is evident throughout the entire industry chain. This week, module prices have continued their descent. In summary, it’s probable that module prices will remain volatile in the future, especially considering that bidding prices for modules are swiftly approaching the 1 yuan mark.

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• PV Industry Supply Chain Price Update

According to EnergyTrend, the New Energy Research Center under TrendForce, as of October 23, 2023, the prices for various photovoltaic materials and components have experienced changes:

For Polysilicon:

• Mono Recycled Polysilicon in RMB (Renminbi) dropped to RMB 72/KG, a decrease of 10%.
• Mono Grade Polysilicon in RMB decreased from RMB 78/KG to RMB 70/KG, a 10.26% decline.
• N-Type Polysilicon was quoted at RMB 78/KG, with a minor change of -15.22%.
• Polysilicon outside China was priced at US$20.55/KG.

For Wafer:

• M10 Mono Wafer in RMB were quoted at RMB 2.4/Pc, marking an 11.11% decrease; the latest pricing in USD was US$0.299/Pc, down by 11.01% from the previous US$0.336/Pc.
• G12 Mono Wafer in RMB were priced at RMB 3.4/Pc, showing a 5.56% decrease; the latest pricing in USD was US$0.422/Pc, a 5.59% drop.
• Since October 23rd, new N-Type M10 Mono Wafer was quoted at RMB 2.5/Pc.

For Cell:

• M10 Mono PERC Cell in RMB was priced at RMB 0.51/W, marking a 10.53% decrease; the USD pricing was US$0.065/W, down by 11.64% from the previous US$0.073/W.
• G12 Mono PERC Cell in RMB was quoted at RMB 0.53/W, representing a significant decrease of 10.17% from RMB 0.59/W; the latest USD price was US$0.067/W, showing an 11.84% decline.
• M10 TOPCon Cells in RMB decreased from RMB 0.6/W to RMB 0.52/W, down by 13.33%.

For Modules:

• The price for 182mm facial Mono PERC Module was RMB 1.15/W, a 4.17% reduction from the previous week.
• Both 210mm facial Mono PERC Module and 182mm facial Mono PERC Module were quoted at RMB 1.16/W, with a change of 4.13%.
• The price for 210mm facial Mono PERC Module was RMB 1.17/W.

PV Glass prices were reported as follows:

• 2.0mm Coating was priced at RMB 20/㎡.
• 3.2mm Coating was priced at RMB 28/㎡.

Please note that this information is sourced from EnergyTrend and should be credited if used or referenced.

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Polysilicon:

Polysilicon prices have remained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 83/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 81/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 93/KG.

On the supply side, some of the production capacity that was impacted by the accident has been restored, and the growth rate of new capacity has accelerated. As a result, this month’s actual output has seen a significant increase, marking the first time the growth rate has hit double digits. This has led to a substantial shift in the supply and demand dynamics of polysilicon.

On the demand side, specialized crystal pulling manufacturers have reduced their activation rates, exerting pressure on upstream polysilicon manufacturers. These crystal pulling manufacturers are currently focusing on depleting their accumulated polysilicon inventory.

Consequently, the forecast of a decline in polysilicon prices in the upstream segment is on the verge of becoming a reality, and crystal pulling manufacturers, in general, are delaying their procurement demands. Furthermore, the marginal increase in polysilicon is expected by the end of this month, while crystal pulling manufacturers still have sufficient inventory to consume throughout the month.

Meanwhile, the market prices of downstream cells and modules continue to remain below their production costs, and the negative signs of declining polysilicon prices are increasingly apparent. This week, the turnover of polysilicon has been slow, with prices holding steady. However, certain events, such as some second-tier polysilicon enterprises reducing their prices for N-type polysilicon, indicate that a downward trend in polysilicon prices is looming.

Wafer:

The prices of wafer have still reduced throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 wafer is RMB 2.78/Pc, while G12 wafer is priced at RMB 3.80/Pc.
On the supply side, currently, the inventory of wafer enterprises stands in the range of 2.4-2.6 billion pieces. Their production schedules and inventory for this month significantly surpass downstream demand. Consequently, wafer manufacturers face immense pressure to deplete their inventory. Specialized wafer manufacturers are clearly indicating their intention to reduce production, with some of them having already commenced this step to manage their inventory.

On the demand side, there hasn’t been a notable increase in cell procurement demand. Nevertheless, owing to diminishing profits and mounting inventory pressure, some professional cell manufacturers are contemplating reducing their production. This week, wafer prices have uniformly dropped, maintaining a price gap of approximately 0.1 yuan per watt between leading and smaller manufacturers. With dwindling downstream purchasing demand and limited cost support from the upstream segment, it’s anticipated that wafer prices will persistently decline, making it challenging to arrest this downward trend.

Cell:

Cell prices have still declined slightly this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.60/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.66/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.65/W.

On the supply side, cell manufacturers did not plan to reduce their production before the long weekend, leading to an increase in overall inventory. Currently, cell market prices are hovering close to production costs. Some specialized cell manufacturers are now contemplating reducing production and focusing on depleting their existing inventory.

On the demand side, the operational rates of specialized module manufacturers have not improved, and cell prices have not reached their lowest point. Downstream consumers have adopted a bearish stance, and their purchasing strategies involve buying products with increasing prices rather than those with declining prices. Consequently, they are postponing their purchasing demands. Assessing specific cell models, the inventory of P-type modules in the downstream segment is high, and the demand for domestic centralized projects remains stagnant. As a result, there is insufficient momentum for module manufacturers to improve their production scheduling, and the demand for P-type cells is weak.

When it comes to N-type cells, there is a substantial difference in demand between high-efficiency and low-efficiency cells. The supply of low to medium efficiency cells has increased significantly, but the market’s receptiveness to them is low. Consequently, their inventory is growing, whereas the demand for high-efficiency N-type cells remains positive. However, in the latter half of the year, most orders are for P-type cells, which creates increased shipment pressure even for high-efficiency N-type cells.

This week, cell prices have been erratic, but overall, they are declining. There is currently no support from the cost side, and with weak customer demand, there is still room for further reductions in cell prices.

Modules:

Module prices have declined slightly throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 1.20/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 1.21/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.21/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.22/W.

On the supply side, the shipment volumes of module manufacturers have exhibited significant divergence. The market price for modules has dropped even below the production costs for specialized module manufacturers, prompting them to drastically reduce their production. Despite weak current demand, top-tier leading manufacturers are maintaining high operational rates and are even undercutting prices to secure more orders, squeezing the market share of smaller manufacturers.

On the demand side, overseas inventory levels are elevated, and as module prices continue to decrease, customers are closely monitoring market dynamics. Furthermore, there are rumors that the European Union may impose trade barriers to support local photovoltaic manufacturers. This has instilled panic among module manufacturers, who are likely to reduce module prices to clear their inventory.

Stimulated by the commencement of ground projects, domestic demand for modules has improved. However, industry chain prices are still on a downward trajectory, and domestic customers are increasingly concerned about further price declines. Given that current module inventory can still meet short-term delivery demands, the demand for modules from domestic manufacturers is not expected to surge in the short run. This week, module prices declined, with G12 P-type modules dropping by 1.63% and M10 P-type cells falling by 0.83%. However, the downward trend persists, and there is still room for further price declines.

Leveraging the superior conversion efficiency of N-type cells, the rise of cost-effective TOPCon cell technology in 2022 has seen N-type cell technology rapidly expand, inviting many solar industry participants into the competition. Currently, PERC cell technology (for producing P-type cells) stands as the market’s mainstay. However, with the step-by-step realization of large-scale N-type cell capacities, there looms a risk that a substantial part of PERC cell technology capacities may be phased out within the forthcoming two to three years. Concurrently, based on TrendForce’s analysis, as N-type cell capacities incrementally come online, there might be a sporadic shortage of high-quality silicon materials and wafers tailored for N-type cells. This could further establish a noticeable price disparity between N-type silicon and wafers, and their P-type counterparts.

Silicon supply remains abundant, but the price gap between P-type and N-type continues to widen

By 2023’s end, it is projected that the total production capacity of polysilicon will reach 2.072 million tons, an increase of 68.6% YoY. The actual output of silicon materials is expected to be about 1.483 million tons, sufficient to support over 600 GW of solar panel consumption (given a silicon consumption rate of 0.245 tons/GW). This aligns with an annual installation demand of approximately 370-390 GW, indicating a clear oversupply of silicon. As the market leans towards N-type cell technology, P-type silicon may face oversupply, causing its price to drop faster. Conversely, robust demand and limited output for N-type silicon might create periodic shortages, stabilizing its price. For silicon firms, N-type silicon offers better profitability.

Surging demand for N-type cell slices drives silicon wafer makers to swiftly pivot

By the end of 2023, silicon wafer production capacity is projected to reach approximately 921.6 GW, reflecting a 64.2% year-on-year growth. Driven by the increasing demand for N-type cell wafers, silicon wafer manufacturers are rapidly transitioning to N-type production and ramping up their output. With the inclusion of rectangular silicon wafers occupying a portion of this capacity, certain dimensions of P-type wafers might experience short-term supply shortages, potentially failing to meet immediate demands. If the N-type cell rollout falls short of expectations, there remains a risk of N-type wafer oversupply. Additionally, amid intensified industry competition and considering factors such as technological prowess, availability of high-purity quartz sand, and consistent supply of top-quality silicon wafers, leading companies like Longi and CMC are set to further elevate their competitive edge.

N-cell capacity deployment sees delays; PERC tech likely to remain dominant this year

The projected total wafer capacity by 2023’s end is estimated to reach around 1,172 GW, marking a 106% increase year-on-year. The majority of this newly added capacity is attributed to N-type TOPCon cell technology. By the end of the year, N-type wafer capacity is expected to reach 676 GW, accounting for 57.7% of the total. However, TrendForce has observed some delays in the actual deployment of N-type cell capacity. Given the existing price difference between N-P type wafers, PERC technology is anticipated to retain its leading position in the market this year, although the penetration rate of TOPCon cells will accelerate.

China expected to hold 80–85% of global solar panel capacity in 2023

Estimations for 2023 indicate that the worldwide solar panel capacity could reach an astounding 1,034 GW, marking a 64.7% increase year-on-year. Of this, approximately 335.4 GW represents newly added capacity, predominantly driven by Chinese enterprises. With Western countries and India progressively launching policies supporting local manufacturing, a growing number of Chinese firms are contemplating setting up production capacities overseas to sidestep trade barriers. TrendForce reports leading Chinese solar panel manufacturers like Longi, JinkoSolar, JA Solar, and TrinaSolar have successively expanded their operations to areas including the US, Europe, and the Middle East. Given the matured technology and cost-effective production of Chinese manufacturers and considering the nascent state of the solar supply chains overseas and the elevated costs of expansion, it remains challenging for enterprises from other regions to join the competition. As such, TrendForce believes that the global competitive landscape for solar panels won’t see any marked changes in the near term, maintaining China’s dominant position with an anticipated 80-85% capacity share in 2023.