With the approach to the end of 2023, TrendForce revealed the tech trends in every sector, apparently, AI continues as the main focus to decide the direction of how the tech supply chain will be in the next few years, here are the seeings:

CSPs increase AI investment, driving a 38% growth in AI server shipments by 2024

• CSPs increase AI investment, fueling a 38% growth in AI server shipments by 2024.
• Major CSPs like Microsoft, Google, and AWS are driving this growth due to the rising popularity of AI applications, pushing AI server shipments to 1.2 million units in 2023.

HBM3e set to drive an annual increase of 172% in HBM revenue

• Major memory suppliers are set to introduce HBM3e with faster speeds (8 Gbps) to enhance the performance of AI accelerator chips in 2024–2025.
• HBM integration is becoming common among GPU manufacturers like NVIDIA and AMD, and it is expected that HBM will significantly contribute to memory suppliers’ revenues in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 172%.

Rising demand for advanced packaging in 2024, the emergence of 3D IC technology

• Leading semiconductor firms like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel are emphasizing advanced packaging technology’s importance in boosting chip performance, conserving space, reduce power usage, and minimize latency. They’re establishing 3D IC research centers in Japan to underscore this role.
• Generative AI is driving increased demand for 2.5D packaging tech, integrating computing chips and memory with a silicon interposer layer. Additionally, 3D packaging solutions like TSMC’s SoIC, Samsung’s X-Cube, and Intel’s Foveros.

NTN is set to begin with small-scale commercial tests, broader applications of this technology are on the way in 2024

• Collaboration between satellite operators, semiconductor firms, telecom operators, and smartphone makers is growing due to increased satellite deployments by operators. This collaboration focuses on mobile satellite communication applications and bidirectional data transmission under specific conditions.
• Major semiconductor manufacturers are ramping up efforts in satellite communication chips, leading top smartphone manufacturers to integrate satellite communication into high-end phones using the SoC model, which is expected to drive small-scale commercial testing of NTN networks and promote widespread adoption of NTN applications.

6G communication to begin in 2024, with satellite communication taking center stage

• 6G standardization begins around 2024-2025, with initial technologies expected by 2027-2028. This enables novel applications like Reconfigurable Intelligent Surfaces (RIS), terahertz bands, Optical Wireless Communication (OWC), NTN for high-altitude comms, and immersive Extended Reality (XR) experiences.
• Low-orbit satellites will play a key role in 6G as its standards solidify, peaking around the time of 6G commercialization. The use of drones for 6G communication and environmental sensing is also set to surge in the 6G era.

Innovative entrants drive cost optimization for Micro LED technology in 2024

• In 2023, the focus in Micro LED display technology is on cost reduction through chip downsizing, aiming for at least a 20-25% annual reduction. A hybrid transfer approach, combining stamping and laser bonding, is gaining attention for efficient mass production.
• Micro LED holds potential in micro-projection displays for transparent AR lenses. Challenges include achieving ultra-high PPI with 5 µm or smaller chips, particularly with red LEDs’ low efficiency. Various innovative approaches, such as InGan-based red LEDs and vertically stacked RGB LEDs.

Intensifying competition in AR/VR micro-display technologies

• Increasing AR/VR headset demand drives demand for ultra-high PPI near-eye displays, with Micro OLED technology at the forefront, poised for broader adoption.
• Challenges in brightness and efficiency impact Micro OLED displays and their dominance in the head-mounted display market depends on the development of various micro-display technologies.

Advancements in material and component technologies are propelling the commercialization of gallium oxide

• Gallium oxide (Ga₂O₃) is gaining prominence for next-gen power semiconductor devices due to its potential in high-voltage, high-temperature, and high-frequency applications in EVs, electrical grids, and aerospace.
• The industry is already producing 4-inch gallium oxide mono-crystals and advancing Schottky diode and transistor fabrication processes, with the first Schottky diode products expected by 2024.

Solid-state batteries poised to reshape the EV battery landscape over the next decade

• Major automakers and battery manufacturers are investing in solid-state and semi-solid-state battery technologies, aiming for a new cycle of technological iteration by 2024.
• After Li-ion batteries, sodium-ion batteries, with lower energy density, are suitable for budget-friendly EVs, and hydrogen fuel cells offer long-range and zero emissions, primarily for heavy-duty commercial vehicles, with widespread adoption expected after 2025, despite challenges.

BEVs in 2024 rely on power conversion efficiency, driving range, and charging efficiency

• Automakers are optimizing battery pack structures and material ratios to increase energy density and driving range. Solid-state batteries, with high energy density, may see limited installations in vehicles as semi-solid batteries in 2H23.
• The 800V platform will enable high-power fast charging, leading to the expansion of high-power charging stations. AI advancements are driving EVs toward advanced autonomous driving, with Tesla’s Dojo supercomputer investing in neural network training to maintain its position in the intelligent driving market.

Green solutions with AI simulations emerging as a linchpin for renewable energy and decarbonized manufacturing

• Under the background of optimizing energy consumption, creating interconnected data ecosystems, and visualizing energy flow and consumption. Carbon auditing tools and AI are key for organizations aiming to reduce carbon emissions and enhance sustainability.
• The IEA predicts global renewable energy generation to reach 4,500 GW by 2024, driven by policy support, rising fossil fuel prices, and energy crises. The adoption of AI-driven smart technologies in peripheral systems for stable energy generation.

OLED’s expansion will across various applications driven by the innovation of foldable phones

• OLED folding phones are improving in design by using lightweight materials, innovative hinge structures, and cost-reduction efforts to approach the thickness and weight of traditional smartphones.
• In the IT sector, industry players like Samsung, BOE Technology, JDI, and Visionox are making significant investments and developments in OLED technology to expand into various markets. Anticipated advancements in technology and materials are expected to increase OLED market penetration by 2025.

According to a report from TechNews, Micro LED technology boasts superior qualities such as higher transparency, richer color saturation, increased brightness, enhanced efficiency, and lower power consumption. It also extends product lifespans, making it an optimal choice for automotive displays. However, it currently grapples with challenges related to cost, mass transfer, extensive inspections, and red light efficiency, posing obstacles to large-scale production.

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According to a report by TechNews, TrendForce held the Micro LED Forum 2023 on the 5th, inviting numerous companies to share insights on the next-generation display market trends. Eric Chiou, Senior Research Vice President at TrendForce, believes that Micro LED technology is making significant strides in the metaverse sector this year. Many technological challenges need to be overcome, such as semiconductor integration techniques. Ever since AUO announced the mass production of Micro LED watches, cost reduction has become a major focus for many companies.

Chiou stated that to cut costs, chips are the most effective components to optimize. Manufacturers are shifting from using 6-inch wafers to 8-inch wafers for chip production to help reduce costs. In terms of mass transfer techniques, a few years ago, stamp transfer technology was in use, but the industry has been increasingly leaning towards laser transfer while striving for efficiency. In the future, there’s a strong possibility of moving towards a “hybrid transfer” approach, which combines stamp transfer and laser bonding methods.

For instance, companies purchasing equipment might conduct in-house experiments and modify equipment to suit their needs. Equipment providers are also drawing from industry experience to create new solutions, offering next-generation equipment to inexperienced customers, making the production process more practical.

Regarding product development, the most evident direction for Micro LED is in smartwatches. Chiou revealed that by 2026, the cost of a 2.12-inch Micro LED Apple Watch from Apple could potentially drop to $100, compared to the current $40-50 for OLED displays. This suggests that Micro LED may pose strong competition to OLED in the near future.

TrendForce anticipates that Apple Watch will attract more brands to invest in the development and promotion of Micro LED wearable devices, leading to a compound annual growth rate of 873% from 2022 to 2027. This year, the Micro LED chip production value is approximately $27 million, and with the market’s continuous expansion, it is expected to reach $600 million. The compound annual growth rate from 2022 to 2027 is projected to be 111%.

Dr. Mingchi Hsu, Special Assistant at the AUO Display Development Center, mentioned during the forum that the challenges of mass transfer in Micro LED technology were previously considered bottlenecks, but significant improvements have been made in the last two years. As for the inspection and repair aspects, AUO has developed its own equipment and has already completed its development.

Porotech’s primary technologies include Dynamic Pixel Tuning (DPT) and PoroGaN technology. Daniel He, Director of Product and Marketing Taiwan Branch Manager at Porotech, disclosed that they are currently mass-producing 8-inch GaN wafers and collaborating with Taiwanese foundries. Although they can produce 12-inch GaN chips, they plan to observe market response before proceeding.

Mr. Lin Mao-Song, General Manager of Coherent Technologies, a leading laser source technology company, stated that the inspection and repair phase in Micro LED manufacturing might be longer than the actual manufacturing process. A 99.95% yield rate implies a high repair proportion, making it crucial to enhance production yield and reduce costs. Laser technology plays a significant role in increasing production speed and yield, with excimer laser being the best choice for repair and mass transfer, achieving yields of over 99.99%.

TrendForce will host the “LED Forum 2023” on September 5th at the National Taiwan University Hospital International Conference Center. The event will showcase presentations from TrendForce’s Senior Research Vice President, Eric Chiou, and representatives from various companies and institutes, including Mojo Vision, ITRI, Lumus, and others. Majorly focus on the advancements in Micro LED technology and its applications.

This event will host the Micro LED Forum on September 5th. The forum will cover key topics including Metaverse trends, Micro LED technology advancements and innovative applications. Industry experts will share market insights, company progress updates, and notable technological breakthroughs in 2023.

【Information】

• Date: September 5^th, 2023
• Time: 09:30~17:00（Registration starts at 8:45）
• Location: Room 401, NTUH International Convention Center
• Website：https://seminar.trendforce.com/LEDforum/2023/TW/index/

According to research conducted by TrendForce, the much-anticipated Micro LED version of the Apple Watch is facing yet another delay and is now expected to be launched in the first quarter of 2026. The primary reason behind this delay is believed to be the need for reconfiguring the production supply chain.

Previously, industry speculations suggested that Apple would take charge of the core production process, particularly the massive transfer of Micro LED technology. However, recent industry research by TrendForce indicate that LG Display (LGD) might now take over this crucial aspect of the production process.

The critical process involved in the production of the Micro LED version of the Apple Watch, especially the massive transfer of Micro LED technology, has been a point of interest in the industry. It was widely speculated that Apple would handle this key engineering either at its Cupertino headquarters in the United States or potentially transfer the production to its facility in Longtan, Taiwan, for the essential massive transfer of the technology.

TrendForce understands that Apple’s decision to undertake the crucial engineering process in either the United States or Taiwan reflects their intent to have complete control over the core manufacturing process during the initial production phase. However, this approach also introduces complexities in terms of logistics and supply chain management, as the chips are set to be manufactured in Malaysia, the backplates in South Korea, and the final assembly by system integrators in China or Vietnam.

As a result, recent industry research by TrendForce indicate that Apple has finalized LGD as its primary collaborator for Micro LED production. This means that LGD will now be responsible for the critical massive transfer process. In addition to providing its own equipment and technical support, Apple is also expected to invest in LGD’s related equipment procurement to ensure a smooth transition and expedited progress in the Micro LED production pipeline.

For more information and details about the Micro LED industry, TrendForce will hold the “2023 LED Forum” on September 5th (Tuesday) from 9:30 am to 5:00 pm at the NTUH International Convention Center. The seminar has invited TrendForce’s Senior Research Vice President, Eric Chiou, as well as representatives from various industries such as Mojo Vision, ITRI, Lumus, Unikorn, Porotech, Nitride Semiconductor, Tohoku University, Coherent, InZiv, AUO, and Tianma to share the progress and related applications of Micro LED technology.