Though Samsung has denied the rumor that its HBM3e passed NVIDIA’s qualification tests, multiple Taiwanese companies in the supply chain reportedly learned that the product is expected to receive certification soon, and will start shipping in Q3. As memory manufacturers are said to shift at least 20-30% of their production capacity to HBM, tightening supply further, DDR5 prices in Q3 will reportedly be on the rise.

It is reported that some of Samsung’s supply chain partners have recently received information to place orders and reserve capacity as soon as possible, which indicates the memory giant’s HBM may begin shipments smoothly in the second half of the year. The move may also imply that the internal capacity allocation within Samsung will accelerate, shifting the focus of production lines to HBM.

Taiwanese memory supply chain sources reportedly believe that the news of Samsung’s HBM certification is likely to be confirmed at the upcoming Samsung financial report meeting, which will take place on July 31. It is said that memory manufacturers will relocate at least 20-30% of their production capacity, driving DDR5 prices to rise.

TrendForce notes that a recovery in demand for general servers—coupled with an increased production share of HBM by DRAM suppliers—has led suppliers to maintain their stance on hiking prices. As a result, the ASP of DRAM in Q3 is expected to continue rising, with an anticipated increase of 8–13%. Due to high average inventory levels of DDR4 among buyers, purchasing momentum will be focused on DDR5.

On the other hand, regarding NAND prices in Q3, TrendForce reports that while the enterprise sector continues to invest in server infrastructure, the consumer electronics market remains lackluster. This, combined with NAND suppliers aggressively ramping up production in the second half of the year, is likely to curb the blended price hike to a modest 5–10%.

According to TrendForce’s latest analysis, Samsung’s initial plan to pass NVIDIA’s certification in Q2 was delayed, making it falling behind SK hynix and Micron. Simultaneously, some HBM suppliers also faced lower-than-expected production yields, leading to concerns about a shortage of HBM3e 8hi materials for the H200 GPU shipments starting in Q2 2024.

However, Samsung adjusted its 1alpha nm front-end production process and back-end stacking process in the first half of 2024, leading the industry to expect that sample production could be completed in Q3 2024, followed by product certification.

Read more

• [News] Samsung’s HBM3e Reportedly Passed NVIDIA’s Certification Though It Denies the Rumor
• Demand for Servers to Support Second Half of the Year; DRAM Prices Expected to Increase by 8–13% in Q3, Says TrendForce

(Photo credit: Samsung)

As top memory giants and AI chip companies all gear up for the combat of next-gen high bandwidth memory (HBM), JEDEC, the leader in the development of standards for the microelectronics industry, revealed the preliminary specifications of HBM4 last week. According to its press release and a report from Wccftech, HBM4 is poised to deliver substantial memory capacities, with densities up to 32Gb in 16-Hi stacks.

According to JEDEC, HBM4 aims to boost data processing rates while preserving key features such as higher bandwidth, reduced power consumption, and increased capacity per die or stack, which are crucial traits for applications that demand efficient management of large datasets and complex calculations, such as generative AI, high-performance computing, high-end graphics cards, and servers.

According to JEDEC’s preliminary specifications, HBM4 is anticipated to feature a “doubled channel count per stack” compared to HBM3, which indicates a higher utilization area, leading to significantly enhanced performance. It is also worth noting that in order to support device compatibility, the new standard ensures that a single controller can work with both HBM3 and HBM4.

JEDEC notes that HBM4 will specify 24 Gb and 32 Gb layers, offering support for TSV stacks ranging from 4-high to 16-high. The committee has initially agreed on speed bins up to 6.4 Gbps, with ongoing discussions for higher frequencies.

Interestingly enough, JEDEC did not specify how HBM4 integrates memory and logic semiconductors into a single package, which would be one of the major challenges the industry has been eagerly trying to solve.

Earlier in June, NVIDIA announced its next-gen Rubin GPU, targeting to be released in 2026, will feature 8 HBM4, while its Rubin Ultra GPU will come with 12 HBM4 chips.

The roadmaps for memory giants on HBM4 is generally in accordance with NVIDIA’s product pipeline. Samsung, for instance, is said to be developing a large-capacity HBM4 memory with a single stack capacity of 48GB, which is expected to enter production in 2025.

The current HBM market leader, SK hynix, on the other hand, has collaborated with TSMC on the development and production of HBM4, scheduled for mass production in 2026.

Micron has also disclosed its next-generation HBM memory, tentatively named HBM Next. It is expected that HBM Next will offer capacities of 36GB and 64GB, available in various configurations.

Read more

• [News] The HBM4 Battle Begins! Memory Stacking Challenges Remain, Hybrid Bonding as the Key Breakthrough

(Photo credit: SK hynix)

Amid the rising memory market prices and the continuously improving supply-demand balance, original manufacturers (OEMs) have seen their business performance steadily climb, generally achieving a turnaround from losses to profits.

Meanwhile, memory module manufacturers have also enjoyed rapid growth in their performance. With strong support from AI, memory manufacturers are optimistic about future market conditions, with some even stating that 2025 will be a significant upward cycle year for the memory industry.

• OEM and Module Manufacturers Recorded Strong Financial Results

Recently, two OEMs, Micron and Winbond, have disclosed their latest financial data.

Micron’s financial report for the period from March to May 2024 shows that the company’s revenue for the quarter was USD 6.811 billion, an 81.5% increase YoY. Non-GAAP operating income was USD 941 million, and net income was USD 702 million, a 47% increase QoQ. Specifically, Micron’s DRAM revenue was approximately USD 4.7 billion, a 13% increase QoQ, while its NAND business revenue was approximately USD 2.1 billion, a 32% increase QoQ.

The average selling prices (ASP) for both DRAM and NAND increased by more than 20% QoQ. Micron stated that its revenue, gross margin, and earnings per share for the quarter exceeded the upper limit of its guidance range. Looking ahead to next quarter, Micron expects its revenue to reach USD 7.4-7.8 billion.

Winbond’s self-clearing revenue report for June 2024 shows that consolidated revenue for June was TWD 7.378 billion, a 5.56% increase YoY; the cumulative consolidated revenue for January to June was TWD 41.605 billion, a 14.53% increase YoY.

In terms of memory module manufacturers, companies such as Adata, Phison, and Team Group all reported year-on-year revenue growth for June and the first half of the year. Adata’s revenue for June reached TWD 2.954 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 29.38%, with a cumulative consolidated revenue of TWD 20.91 billion for the first half of this year, up by 48.56% YoY. Team Group’s revenue for June was TWD 2.796 billion, a 44.93% increase YoY, while Phison’s revenue was TWD 5.361 billion, a 55.93% increase YoY, both setting new monthly revenue records.

BIWIN and TWSC recently disclosed announcements expecting substantial year-on-year growth in net profit for the first half of 2024. BIWIN expects net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses to be CNY 275-325 million, a year-on-year increase of 191.12-207.69%. TWSC expects operating revenue to be CNY 2-2.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 238.68-289.48%.

• Memory Companies Anticipate an Upward Trend in 2025

Both OEMs and module manufacturers hold positive attitudes towards the outlook for future memory market.

Micron, as one of the three major DRAM manufacturers, has seen its HBM business grow by leaps and bounds in recent years, greatly benefited from the AI wave. Therefore, Micron is steadfastly optimistic about the potentials of AI and HBM. Micron expects to generate several hundred million dollars in revenue from HBM in fiscal 2024, which is expected to reach several billion dollar in fiscal 2025. Additionally, Micron reiterated that HBM has been in tight supply, and its HBM memory chips have already sold out for 2024 to 2025.

Winbond Chairman Arthur Chiao noted that Winbond began to see a decline in memory sales since 2Q22 and signs of sales increase in 2Q24 after eight quarters. He expects sales volume to rise, followed by price increase. He positively predicts that the industry will enter an upward cycle over the next two years, and 2025 will experience remarkable growth. To sum up, he views the market outlook for next year as optimistic.

Adata Chairman Simon Chen emphasized that upstream manufacturers currently have a very positive and proactive attitude towards prices. The allocation of production capacity is prioritized for HBM with the highest gross margin, followed by general-purpose DDR5 and DDR4. Capital expenditures are also profit-oriented.

As a result, short-term spot price fluctuations do not affect the continuous and stable upward trend of DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices in the third quarter. Moreover, some DRAM spot prices have started to rebound recently. He is optimistic that after a short-term adjustment in the spot market, the company’s shipments will return to a growth trajectory as the coming of the traditional peak season in 2H24.

• NAND Flash Price Increase to Shrink in 3Q24

It’s worth noting that although memory manufacturers are generally optimistic about the future market, and the AI development has indeed boosted demand for products such as servers, HBM, and enterprise SSD, the downstream terminal application market has not yet fully recovered.

Meanwhile, the active moves in expanding production by original manufacturers may lead to changes in the future supply-demand balance. These factors suggest that the increase in some product contract prices in the future memory market may shrink.

TrendForce reports that a recovery in demand for general servers—coupled with an increased production share of HBM by DRAM suppliers—has led suppliers to maintain their stance on hiking prices. As a result, the ASP of DRAM in the third quarter is expected to continue rising, with an anticipated increase of 8–13%. The price of conventional DRAM is expected to rise by 5–10%, showing a slight contraction compared to the increase in the second quarter.

In terms of NAND Flash, TrendForce indicates that industry companies will continue to invest in server construction, and particularly, enterprise SSD will see order increase as a result of the expansion of AI adoption, while consumer electronics demand remains weak. In addition, original manufacturers tend to be active in expand production in 2H24. As a whole, the sufficiency ratio of NAND Flash supply will rise to 2.3% in the third quarter, and the blended NAND Flash price increase will converge to 5-10%.

Looking at the price trend of NAND Flash this year, the price of NAND Flash accelerated to rebound as original manufacturers remained conservative in production increases in 1H24, which enabled them to return to profitability.

However, as manufacturers significantly expand production in 2H24, and retail market demand has still not recovered yet, the decline in wafer spot prices has widened, with some wafer prices falling more than 20% below contract prices. This presents a challenge for the future increase in wafer contract prices.

Read more

• [News] Memory Utilization Rate Near Full Capacity, Surpassing Mature Nodes Foundries
• [News] Memory Market Recovery is Near, as Winbond Expects a Good Year in 2025

(Photo credit: Micron)

While still working in the final stage of HBM3e qualification with NVIDIA, Samsung Electronics is also advancing in the AI memory market with custom high bandwidth memory (HBM) solutions. According to reports by PassionateGeekz and China Flash Market, the memory giant is collaborating with major clients, such as AMD and Apple, to develop tailored HBM products, which are expected to be commercially available in the era of HBM4.

Citing Choi Jang-seok, head of Samsung’s new business planning team at memory division, the reports note that many customers of Samsung are switching from traditional, general HBM to customized products, as the latter promises better performance, power and area (PPA), while offering greater value than current options.

PassionateGeekz notes that at the Samsung Foundry Forum 2024 earlier this week, Choi further highlighted two forms of customized HBM Samsung has been developing. It is worth noting that Samsung is developing a large-capacity HBM4 memory with a single stack capacity of 48GB, which is expected to enter production in 2025.

On the other hand, Samsung also illustrated the innovation of the 3D stacking of HBM DRAM and customer-specific logic chips. By bypassing the interposer and base die required in the existing 2.5D packaging solution, the HBM chip can be directly integrated into the computing SoC in 3D. Samsung’s custom HBM, therefore, by eliminating intermediaries and substrates, can significantly reduce power and area.

TrendForce also observed that for HBM4, standard processes and capacities have been settled. The three major suppliers are in the development stage, with each buyer initiating custom requests. For future generations of HBM, new directions have been proposed, as HBM may no longer be just arranged next to the SoC main chip but could also stack directly on top of it.

While all the options are still under feasibility discussion and not finalized, TrendForce believes the future HBM industry will shift towards more customized production. Compared to other DRAM products, this approach aims to break away from the framework of commodity DRAM in terms of pricing and design, offering more specialized solutions.

Read more

• [News] Samsung Establishes New HBM Team to Advance HBM3, HBM3e and HBM4 Development
• [News] Overview of Expansion Plans by HBM Giants

(Photo credit: Samsung)

According to TrendForce’s latest memory spot price trend report, prices of DDR4 chips have risen noticeably. Though inventory levels are still high for DDR4, buyers prefer DDR4 over DDR5 due to the price discount. On the other hand, the NAND Flash spot market remains lethargic in transactions. Details are as follows:

DRAM Spot Price:

Recent developments in the spot market show that prices of DDR4 chips have risen noticeably. Even though inventory levels are still high for DDR4 products at this moment, buyers prefer DDR4 over DDR5 due to the price discount. Moreover, DRAM suppliers intend to stabilize spot prices of DDR4 products and halt the ongoing decline. Hence, there has been an improvement with respect to the price trend. Nevertheless, further monitoring of inventory levels is necessary in order to determine whether this rally will continue for a longer while. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) has risen by 2.92% from US$1.918 last week to US$1.974 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Price:

The NAND Flash spot market remains lethargic in transactions, and various products are starting to experience a drop in prices after the mainstream 512Gb TLC wafer dipped below the US$3 threshold last week. With that said, buyers are still showing hesitation towards price inquiries despite slowed down decrement of spot prices, thus leaving no room for optimism on transactions. 512Gb TLC wafer spots remain unchanged in prices this week at US$3.291.