SK Hynix announced on April 24th that it plans to expand production capacity of the next-generation DRAM including HBM, a core component of the AI infrastructure, in response to the rapidly increasing demand for AI semiconductors.

As the board of directors approves the plan, SK Hynix will build the M15X fab in Cheongju, North Chungcheong Province, for a new DRAM production base, and invest about 5.3 trillion won for fab construction.

SK Hynix plans to start construction at the end of April with an aim to complete in November 2025 for an early mass production. With a gradual increase in equipment investment planned, the total investment in building the new production base will be more than 20 trillion won in the long-term.

With the advent of the AI era, the semiconductor industry believes that the DRAM market has entered a mid- to long-term growth phase. Along with HBM, which is expected to grow more than 60% annually, SK Hynix forecasts that demand for general DRAM will be on a steady rise led by high-capacity DDR5 module products for servers.

As HBM requires at least twice as large capabilities to secure the same production as general DRAM products, SK Hynix decided that increasing DRAM capabilities with a focus on HBM is a precondition for future growth.

The company plans to produce new DRAM from the M15X in Cheongju before the completion of the first fab in Yongin Semiconductor Cluster in the first half of 2027. Being located near the M15, which has been expanding TSV capabilities, the M15X is the best conditioned for optimization of HBM production.

Separately, SK Hynix will proceed with other domestic investments including the Yongin Semiconductor Cluster, where it will to inject approximately 120 trillion won, as planned.

The Yongin project is gaining speed with the process rate for groundwork marking 26%, which is 3% faster than the target. Major preparatory works including land compensation procedures and investigation of cultural properties have been completed, and construction of the infrastructure ranging from power and water to roads is also gaining speed. The company plans to start construction of the first fab in Yongin in March next year and complete it in May 2027.

(Photo credit: SK Hynix)

According to the latest memory spot price trends released by TrendForce, overall DRAM spot market demand has not further heated up, and transaction volume has further shrunk. NAND Flash, affected by pessimistic demand, is experiencing a lack of enthusiasm in market price inquiry transactions. For more details:

DRAM Spot Market:

In the spot market, demand has not risen further for chips, and the overall transaction volume continues to shrink. Most module houses have been slow to reduce inventory, so the situation with spot trading has not been ideal. However, procurement momentum is relatively healthy for server DRAM RDIMMs mainly because DRAM suppliers have significantly increased contract prices for these products, thereby causing some increase in demand in the spot market.

Overall, various DRAM products are currently not consistent in terms of price increases and declines. Further observations on the demand situations across different application segments are necessary to determine their price trends. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) rose by 0.21% from US$1.945 last week to US$1.949 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market:

Price inquiries have not been robust under a poor outlook on demand as the spot market has started manifesting room for negotiations with channel traders, or even module houses, experiencing an excessive inventory, alongside the obstruction on a further hike of 3D wafer prices. Spot prices of 512Gb TLC wafers have dropped by 0.03% this week, arriving at US$3.764.

As AI semiconductor competition intensifies, the wafer foundry industry faces new challenges due to stagnant demand and excess capacity. The battle for dominance in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market is also escalating.

According to Business Korea, Samsung has extended the operation time of its Taylor plant from the end of 2024 to 2026, possibly adjusting the investment pace in consideration of the foundry market.

Regarding the global wafer foundry industry outlook for this year, TSMC President C.C. Wei stated that the growth of the global foundry industry this year has been revised from the previous earnings call of 20% to mid-teens.

Currently, TSMC’s two fabs in Arizona, USA, are scheduled to commence production in 2025 and 2028, respectively; the Kumamoto fab in Japan has started operations in February, and the second fab will start production before 2027. Intel, on the other hand, plans to establish new foundries in the United States, Europe, and Israel. The activation of these new fabs has raised concerns in the market about oversupply issues.

Contrastingly, in the HBM market, crucial for AI chips, SK Hynix and TSMC have formed an alliance, intensifying the competition between this alliance and Samsung.

SK Hynix announced on April 19th that the company has recently signed a memorandum of understanding with TSMC for collaboration to produce next-generation HBM and enhance logic and HBM integration through advanced packaging technology. The company plans to proceed with the development of HBM4, or the sixth generation of the HBM family, slated to be mass produced from 2026, through this initiative.

Looking at Samsung’s developments in the HBM, Samsung Electronics successfully developed the industry’s first highest-capacity 12-layer HBM3E in February, attempting to regain market dominance. In the second quarter, along with the 8-layer product, it will supply to Nvidia. The next goal is to launch the 16-layer HBM4.

Per TrendForce’s data, the three major HBM manufacturers held market shares are as follows: In 2023, SK Hynix and Samsung each held around 47.5%, while Micron’s share was roughly 5%. Still, forecasts indicate that SK Hynix’s market share in 2024 will increase to 52.5%, while Samsung’s will decrease to 42.4%.

In line with the same report from Business Korea, despite the decline in foundry demand, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix’s profit prospects are expected to improve compared to last year.

As per estimates cited in the report from investment institutions, SK Hynix’s first-quarter revenue is expected to reach 12.1021 trillion won, with an operating profit of 1.7654 trillion won, and the operating profit for the entire year of 2024 is expected to exceed 21 trillion won; Samsung Electronics’ DS division’s performance is improving, with the first-quarter operating profit expected to be between 700 billion and 1.8 trillion won, and the overall operating profit for 2024 is expected to be around 35 trillion won.

(Photo credit: SK Hynix)

TrendForce releases the latest trends in memory spot prices. Due to sellers halting quotations, DDR3, DDR4, and DDR5 have all seen price increases. It is expected that prices will decline once quotations are fully resumed. On the other hand, with no strong signs of recovery in end-market demand for NAND Flash, inquiry interest remains subdued. Details below:

DRAM Spot Market:

In the spot market, sellers and module houses suspended quoting following Taiwan’s earthquake on April 3, leading to incremental price rises over several days. This upward trend applies to DDR3, DDR4, and DDR5 products. However, the spot market still lacks demand, and transactions have been limited in terms of quantity. TrendForce believes sellers will resume quoting very soon, and prices will shift down again as before. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) rose by 0.93% from US$1.927 last week to US$1.945 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market:

Suppliers are carrying on with their increase of contract prices for the mainstream 512Gb wafers by more than US$4, though inquiries have been sluggish as distributors are currently holding onto an excessive level of low-cost inventory, and that end market demand has also yet to resuscitate. TrendForce noticed that a number of suppliers are truncating with prices that are slightly below that of contract prices for March, which are generating some sort of pricing pressure. Spot prices of 512Gb TLC wafers have risen by 0.03% this week, arriving at US$3.765.

AI and big data are driving a massive demand for memory data, which also imposes higher requirements on memory technologies. Against this backdrop, the technology competition among memory giants is heating up.

In terms of NAND Flash, major companies are focusing on breakthroughs in the number of layers. Recently, The Korean Economic Daily reported that Samsung Electronics is expected to mass-produce the ninth-generation NAND Flash (V-NAND) later this month.

The company had already produced the 236-layer eighth-generation V-NAND Flash memory at scale in 2022. The upcoming ninth-generation V-NAND Flash memory will continue to use the structure of double NAND Flash stacks, with the number of layers reaching 290. According to industry predictions, Samsung’s future tenth-generation V-NAND is expected to reach 430 layers, and Samsung will switch to a three-stack structure at that time.

Looking further into the future, both Samsung and Kioxia have revealed plans to develop 1000-layer NAND Flash. Samsung aims to develop 1000-layer NAND Flash by 2030, while Kioxia plans to mass-produce 3D NAND Flash chips with more than 1000 layers by 2031.

In terms of DRAM, memory giants are zeroing in on advanced process nodes and 3D DRAM.

In March 2024, Micron disclosed in its financial result that the majority of DRAM chips are currently at the 1α and 1β advanced nodes, and the next generation 1γ DRAM will introduce EUV lithography machine, which has already undergone trial production.

Samsung’s DRAM chip technique is at the 1b nm level, and recent reports suggest that Samsung plans to start large-scale production of 1c nm DRAM within this year, using EUV technology. Samsung will also step into the era of 3D DRAM in 2025. The company has already demonstrated two 3D DRAM technologies: vertical channel transistors and stacked DRAM.

SK Hynix is also developing 3D DRAM. Last year, BusinessKorea reported that SK Hynix proposed using IGZO as the new generation channel material for 3D DRAM. According to industry sources, IGZO is a metal oxide material composed of indium, gallium, and zinc oxide. Its biggest advantage is its low standby power consumption, making it suitable for DRAM transistors requiring long lifespan. This characteristic is easily achievable by adjusting the composition ratio of In, Ga, and ZnO.

(Photo credit: Samsung)