According to TrendForce’s latest release on memory spot prices, with no signs of loosening in contract market prices for DRAM and NAND Flash, spot prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the short term. Details are as follows:

DRAM Spot Market:
In the spot market, buyers and sellers are still mostly passive at this moment due to the celebration of the Lunar New Year. Therefore, spot prices of chips and modules have held relatively steady since before the holiday break. Currently, contract prices are showing no signs of weakening, so TrendForce expects spot prices of some DRAM products to stay mostly flat in the short term. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) rose by 0.98% from US$1.939 last week to US$1.958 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market:
Most spot traders are still celebrating Chinese New Year, and have yet to see any significant price changes, where both wafer and SSD prices are mostly at the level prior to the holiday. With no signs of easing in contract prices, partial spot prices are also expected to be relatively sturdy in the short term. The 512Gb TLC wafer spot stayed flat this week at US$3.437.

DRAM prices have risen for three consecutive months, a trend attributed to Chinese clients accepting the price hike requests from memory manufacturers, as reported by Nikkei on February 16th.

As per data cited by Nikkei, the wholesale price (transaction price) of the benchmark product DDR4 8Gb was around USD 1.85 each in January 2024, marking a 9% increase from the previous month (December 2023). The price of the smaller 4Gb product was around USD 1.40 each, representing an 8% increase from the previous month. The aforementioned prices have been rising for the third consecutive month.

Reportedly, the price negotiation occurred before the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, with Chinese clients increasing their purchasing volume before the break.

On the other hand, per TrendForce, since the fourth quarter of last year through the first quarter of this year, contract prices for DRAM products have seen continuous increases. For the mainstream product DDR4 8Gb, the contract price in January was USD 1.80.

The estimated increase for the first quarter is between 10% to 15%, and it is anticipated that there will be an additional increase of at least close to 10% by the end of the first quarter.

The report from Nikkei further addresses that 2024 is expected to enter the early stages of the PC replacement cycle, leading to increased demand for DRAM. According to sources cited in the report, besides Chinese clients, major PC manufacturers are also accepting price hikes.

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According to the latest spot prices for memory from TrendForce, due to the Chinese New Year holiday, the spot market is experiencing a limited number of released quotes and very few transactions for DRAM. The trading momentum in the NAND Flash spot market has also not shown any improvement. Details are as follows:

DRAM Spot Market:

Chinese OEMs are winding down their operations due to the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday. As a result, the spot market is experiencing a limited number of released quotes and very few transactions. Sellers’ quotes continue to drive the spot price rally, but there is not much actual demand. Although DRAM suppliers are withholding the amount of products going into the spot market, this has a limited effect in terms of sustaining the rally. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) rose by 0.52% from US$1.922 last week to US$1.932 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market:

Transaction momentum is not yet revitalized from the spot market, with market activities carrying on from that of last week under the absence of buy orders for retail NAND Flash products. Module houses are currently hoping that promotions from Chinese New Year would amplify order dynamics, which are seemingly quite difficult for the time being. The 512Gb TLC wafer spot stayed flat this week at US$3.437.

During the “SEMICON Korea 2024” event held recently in Seoul, Chun-hwan Kim, Vice President of global memory giant SK hynix, revealed that the company’s HBM3e has entered mass production, with plans to commence large-scale production of HBM4 in 2026.

According to a report from Business Korea, Chun-hwan Kim stated that SK hynix’s HBM3e memory is currently in mass production, with plans to initiate mass production of HBM4 in 2026.

He noted that with the advent of the AI computing era, generative AI is rapidly advancing, and the market is expected to grow at a rate of 35% annually. The rapid growth of the generative AI market requires a significant number of higher-performance AI chips to support it, further driving the demand for higher-bandwidth memory.

He further commented that the semiconductor industry would face intense survival competition this year to meet the increasing demand and customer needs for memory.

Kim also projected that the HBM market would grow by 40% by 2025, with SK hynix already strategically positioning itself in the market and planning to commence production of HBM4 in 2026.

Meanwhile, previous reports have also indicated that SK hynix expected to establish an advanced packaging facility in the state of Indiana, USA, to meet the demands of American companies, including NVIDIA.

Driven by the wave of AI advancement and demand from China, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy of South Korea recently announced that South Korea’s semiconductor product exports experienced a rebound in 2024. In January, exports reached approximately USD 9.4 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 56.2% and the largest growth in 73 months.

TrendForce has previously reported the progress of HBM3e, as outlined in the timeline below, which shows that SK hynix already provided its 8hi (24GB) samples to NVIDIA in mid-August.

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Samsung’s latest financial report reveals that the fourth-quarter shipments of DRAM and NAND Flash in 2023 exceeded previous expectations, reflecting an improvement in market demand. Samsung will continue selectively adjusting the production capacity of specific DRAM and NAND Flash products to boost prices.

Samsung Electronics’ memory business is expected to return to profit in the first quarter of 2024, signaling a recovery in the memory industry. Commercial Times reports that due to inventory improvements, Samsung’s utilization rate of DRAM is projected to increase from 70% in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 81% in the first quarter of 2024, and further rise to 89% in the second quarter.

According to industry sources cited in the Commercial Times’ report, Samsung’s fourth-quarter shipments of DRAM and NAND Flash in 2023 exceeded previous expectations. This was primarily attributed to Samsung’s memory experiencing a smaller price increase compared to its competitors, thereby accelerating the pace of inventory clearance, particularly in the case of DRAM, where improvements were more significant.

Samsung is expected to continue selectively adjusting the production of DRAM and NAND Flash products. As the first quarter is typically a slow season for the industry, Samsung anticipates a sequential decline in DRAM and NAND Flash shipments in the first quarter of 2024. However, prices are expected to continue rising.

Due to the destocking of Samsung’s DRAM for eight to ten weeks, it is expected to return to normal level by the end of the 1st quarter of 2024. Meanwhile, NAND Flash inventory is projected to normal level within the first half of 2024.

At the same time, Samsung plans to commence production of HBM3e 24GB products in the first half of 2024, with HBM3e 36GB products slated for production in the second half of the year, with progress ahead of schedule. Additionally, the development of the next-generation HBM4 is currently underway, with samples expected to be released in 2025 and mass production in 2026.

As per sources cited by the Commercial Times, reportedly, regarding HBM3 and HBM3e, HBM3 used in AI servers is still exclusively supplied by SK Hynix, with the highest yield in backend packaging, followed by Micron. Meanwhile, the report also indicates that HBM3e is expected to begin mass production in the first quarter of 2024. Micron’s outsourcing of backend TSV and stacking to TSMC has accelerated the product’s production speed.

As for the higher-spec HBM4, TrendForce expects its potential launch in 2026. With the push for higher computational performance, HBM4 is set to expand from the current 12-layer (12hi) to 16-layer (16hi) stacks, spurring demand for new hybrid bonding techniques. HBM4 12hi products are set for a 2026 launch, with 16hi models following in 2027.

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