TrendForce reports indicate a universal price increase for both DRAM and NAND Flash starting in the fourth quarter. DRAM prices, for instance, are projected to see a quarterly surge of about 3-8%. Whether this upward momentum can be sustained will hinge on the suppliers’ steadfastness in maintaining production cuts and the degree of resurgence in actual demand, with the general-purpose server market being a critical determinant.

PC DRAM: DDR5 prices, having already surged in the third quarter, are expected to maintain their upward trajectory, fueled by the stocking of new CPU models. This forthcoming price hike cycle for both DDR4 and DDR5 is incentivizing PC OEMs to proceed with purchases. Although manufacturers still have substantial inventory and there’s no imminent shortage, Samsung has been nudged to further slash its production. However, facing negative gross margins on DRAM products, most manufacturers are resistant to further price reductions, instead pushing for aggressive increases. This stance sets the stage for an anticipated rise in DDR4 prices by 0–5% and DDR5 prices by around 3–8% in the fourth quarter. Overall, as DDR5 adoption accelerates, an approximate 3–8% quarterly increase is projected for PC DRAM contract prices during this period.

Server DRAM: Buyer inventory of DDR5 has climbed from 20% in Q2 to 30–35% recently. However, with only 15% being actually utilized in servers in Q3, market uptake is slower than expected. Meanwhile, Samsung’s intensified production cutbacks have notably shrunk DDR4 wafer inputs, causing a supply crunch in server DDR4 stocks. This scenario leaves no leeway for further server DDR4 price reductions. In response, manufacturers, aiming to enhance profits, are accelerating DDR5 output.

Looking ahead, Q4 forecasts anticipate stable server DDR4 average prices, while server DDR5 is set to maintain a declining trajectory. With DDR5 shipments on the rise and a notable 50-60% price disparity with DDR4, the blended ASP for the range is poised for an upswing. This leads to an estimated 3–8% quarterly hike in Q4 server DRAM contract prices.

Mobile DRAM: Inventories have bounced back to healthy levels sooner than other sectors, thanks to price elasticity driving an increase in per-device capacity, and revitalizing purchasing enthusiasm in 2H23. On the other hand, although Q4 smartphone production hasn’t reached the previous year’s levels for the same period, a seasonal increase of over 10% is still supporting demand for mobile DRAM. However, it’s crucial to note that current manufacturer inventories remain high, and production cuts haven’t yet altered the oversupply situation in the short term. Nevertheless, manufacturers, under profit margin pressures, are insisting on pushing prices upward. For products where inventory is more abundant, such as LPDDR4X or those from older manufacturing processes, the estimated contract price increase will be about 3–8% for the quarter. In contrast, LPDDR5(X) appears to be in tighter supply, with projected contract price increases of 5–10%.

Graphics DRAM: A niche market dynamic and an acceptance of price hikes among buyers suggest sustained procurement of mainstream GDDR6 16Gb chips, preparing for expected price increases in 2024. The launch of NVIDIA’s new Server GPU L40s in the third quarter is facilitating the depletion of existing manufacturer inventories. Furthermore, gaming notebooks are excelling in sales, surpassing the general notebook market this year. Consequently, manufacturers are experiencing less inventory stress for graphics DRAM than they are for commodity DRAM. This landscape sets the stage for an anticipated 3-8% hike in graphics DRAM contract prices for the fourth quarter.

Consumer DRAM: Samsung initiated significant production reductions starting in September to diminish its surplus of older inventory. These cuts are projected to hit 30% by the fourth quarter. With the anticipation of steadily declining inventories, manufacturers are looking to increase consumer DRAM contract prices, aiming for hikes of more than 10%, to avoid incurring losses. However, even though some producers raised their prices at September’s close, demand continues to be lackluster, with purchasing and stock-up efforts not as strong as anticipated. This deviation in pricing goes against the expected supply-demand balance, suggesting a more modest estimated rise of 3–8% in consumer DRAM contract prices for the fourth quarter—below manufacturers’ initial targets.

On October 11, Nanya Technology held an investor conference where CEO Li Pei-Ying noted that DDR5 prices have risen. Nanya Technology’s primary products, DDR3 and DDR4, have halted their decline, with recent negotiations indicating potential price increases and an expected improvement in ASP (average selling prices) in the fourth quarter. The bit growth rate is also expected to show a slight improvement, leading to an overall amelioration in the loss situation.

Li Pei-Ying stated that in terms of overall market supply, various DRAM manufacturers are increasing their supply of DDR5 and HBM products. This is beneficial for depleting DDR4 inventories, and the DRAM industry’s conservative approach to capital expenditure and wafer production capacity is expected to help restore a healthy supply-demand balance by 2024.

On the demand side, in the server sector, enterprise cloud applications are driving demand for AI computing and DDR5. Nanya Technology anticipates that the server market may gradually improve from the fourth quarter onwards. In the mobile sector, the continued development of AI applications in smartphones globally is expected to boost upgrade intentions, and there is an opportunity for a rebound in smartphone sales in the Chinese market from the fourth quarter.

In the PC sector, the launch of new products is expected to drive demand for DDR5 and LPDDR5, gradually replacing DDR4 and LPDDR4 as the mainstream options. In the consumer electronics sector, including televisions, IP cameras, networking, industrial control, and automotive applications, demand is maintaining steady growth.

(Photo credit: Nanya Technology)

Amidst the AI boom, HBM technology steps into the spotlight as market demand continues to surge. Global market research firm TrendForce anticipates a 58% year-on-year increase in HBM demand in 2023, with a potential additional growth of approximately 30% in 2024.

Compared to traditional DRAM, HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) boasts advantages such as high bandwidth, high capacity, low latency, and low power consumption. These attributes accelerate AI data processing and make it particularly well-suited for high-performance computing scenarios like ChatGPT. As a result, it has gained popularity, and major storage manufacturers are actively driving HBM technology upgrades.

Leading memory manufacturers are intensifying their efforts, with Samsung set to introduce HBM4.

Since the inception of the first HBM products utilizing TSV packaging technology in 2014, HBM technology has seen multiple upgrades, including HBM, HBM2, HBM2E, HBM3, and HBM3e.

Regarding the SK Hynix and Samsung, two major South Korean companies, have been at the forefront of HBM3 development. NVIDIA’s H100/H800 and AMD’s MI300 series, represent HBM3’s progress. Both SK Hynix and Samsung expected to offer HBM3e samples by the first quarter of 2024. On the other hand, Micron, a U.S.-based memory company, is bypassing HBM3 and directly pursuing HBM3e.

HBM3e will feature 24Gb mono die stacks, and with an 8-layer (8Hi) configuration, a single HBM3e chip’s capacity will soar to 24GB. This advancement is expected to be incorporated into NVIDIA’s GB100 in 2025, leading the three major OEMs to plan HBM3e sample releases in the first quarter of 2024 and enter mass production in the latter half of the year.

In addition to HBM3 and HBM3e, the latest updates indicate that storage giants are planning the launch of the next generation of HBM—HBM4.

Samsung recently announced that it has developed 9.8Gbps HBM3E and is planning to provide samples to customers. Furthermore, Samsung is actively working on HBM4 with a goal to begin supply in 2025. It’s reported that Samsung Electronics is developing technologies such as non-conductive adhesive film (NCF) assembly for optimizing high-temperature thermal characteristics, as well as hybrid bonding (HCB), for HBM4 products.

In September, Korean media reported that Samsung is gearing up to revamp its production process and launch HBM4 products to capture the rapidly growing HBM market. HBM4 memory stacks will feature a 2048-bit memory interface, a significant departure from the previous 1024-bit interface for all HBM stacks. This enhanced interface width holds great significance for the evolution of HBM4.

While HBM4 promises a major breakthrough, it is still a ways off, making it too early to discuss its practical applications and widespread adoption. Industry experts emphasize that the current HBM market is dominated by HBM2e. However, HBM3 and HBM3e are poised to take the lead in the near future.

According to TrendForce’s research, HBM2e currently accounts for the mainstream market share, being used in various products like NVIDIA A100/A800, AMD MI200, and many AI accelerators developed by CSPs. To keep pace with the evolving demands of AI accelerator chips, OEMs are planning to introduce new HBM3e products in 2024, with HBM3 and HBM3e expected to become the market’s primary players next year.

In terms of the demand transition between different HBM generations, TrendForce estimates that in 2023, mainstream demand will shift from HBM2e to HBM3, with estimated demand shares of approximately 50% and 39%, respectively. As more HBM3-based accelerator chips enter the market, demand will substantially shift toward HBM3 in 2024, surpassing HBM2e and accounting for an estimated 60% of the market. This transition, coupled with higher average selling prices (ASP), is poised to significantly drive HBM revenue growth next year.

(Photo credit: Samsung)

Despite facing economic challenges and the impact of high inflation, the flash memory market finds itself in a challenging period. Nevertheless, major DRAM manufacturers continue the pursuit of advanced technology.

For DRAM chips, advanced manufacturing processes mean improved energy efficiency, increased capacity, and an enhanced end-user experience. Currently, in the world of advanced DRAM processes, such as the 10nm class, has reached the fifth generation. Micron refers to it as 1β DRAM, while Samsung calls it 1b DRAM.

Since Micron commenced production of 1β DRAM last October, they have set their sights on producing 1γ DRAM by 2025. This will mark Micron’s first foray into extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology, and for now, EUV production is centered in their Taichung facility in Taiwan. Therefore, the 1γ process is expected to kick off production there, with potential expansion to their Japanese facilities in the future. Samsung, on the other hand, plans to enter the 1bnm process stage in 2023, achieving chip capacities ranging from 24Gb (3GB) to 32Gb (4GB) and native speeds of 6.4 to 7.2Gbps.

In the NAND Flash business, the technology has now exceeded the remarkable milestone of 200-layer stacking, with storage manufacturers relentlessly striving for even higher layer counts. On August 9th, SK Hynix showcased the world’s first 321-layer NAND Flash memory sample during the 2023 Flash Memory Summit. This innovation has increased efficiency by 59% compared to the previous 238-layer 512Gb NAND. SK Hynix plans to further refine the 321-layer NAND Flash and intends to commence production in the first half of 2025.

Furthermore, Micron has ambitious plans beyond 232 layers, with products like 2YY, 3XX, and 4XX on the horizon. Kioxia and Western Digital are also actively exploring 3D NAND technology with more than 300, 400, and 500 layers. Samsung is planning to introduce the ninth generation of 3D NAND in 2024, possibly featuring 280 layers, followed by the tenth generation in 2025-2026, potentially reaching 430 layers. Their ultimate goal is to achieve 1000-layer NAND Flash by 2030.

(Image: SK Hynix)

Source to UDN, the DRAM market has been buzzing with positive developments lately, and may get a chance to see an upturn by the end of the year. Among the key factors driving this optimism is the DDR5 specification DRAM, which is poised to capitalize on opportunities in AI servers and laptops next year, gradually increasing demand.

After more than a year of corrections, the DRAM market is finally showing signs of improvement. Major DRAM manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix are still reducing production capacity, but their focus is primarily on DDR4 specification DRAM. Industry sources suggest that Samsung, in response to the growing demand for DDR5 DRAM, is set to significantly ramp up DDR5 production in the fourth quarter of this year, anticipating strong order demand next year.

In fact, such as Intel and AMD are planning to introduce new platforms next year that will support DDR5 specification DRAM, indicating a gradual decline in DDR4 demand. Beyond the consumer market, the server market is expected to experience a substantial surge in DDR5 demand, driven by the imminent launch of Intel’s fifth-generation server platform, Emerald Rapids, which fully supports DDR5. As AI server demand gains momentum, DDR5 demand is poised to enter a high-growth phase.

(Source: https://money.udn.com/money/story/5612/7488629 ; Image credit: Micron)