DRAM Spot Market:

As China’s National Day holiday approaches, the frequency of buyers making transactions has dropped. However, transaction prices remain fairly high, and there are no clear signs indicating that prices in the spot market will buckle in the near term. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) rose by 0.33% from US$1.500 last week to US$1.505 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market:

Participants of the spot market have slightly dropped in transaction frequency as the National Day Golden Week is just around the corner, with overall concluded prices maintained on an ascending trend, and a continuance of subsequent purchase willingness will depend on the market sentiment and the actual level of demand after the long holiday. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have climbed 3.47% this week, arriving at US$1.818.

DRAM Spot Market

In the spot market, prices have been rising noticeably in the recent period, and demand has also rebounded marginally. Also, because the supply of rebelled used chips has shrunk slightly, price hikes have been most significant for chips belonging to the bottom of the price range. On the other hand, spot buyers have become somewhat hesitant in the past two or so days because the price hikes are too rapid. They are now less willing to accept higher prices than before. Since the overall demand for DRAM products has yet to turn around, spot prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. The average spot price of the mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) rose by 0.13% from US$1.498 last week to US$1.500 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market

A price increase is seen among finished products, including memory cards, USB flash drives, and eMMC, from the spot market recently due to the diminished supply of wafers, which resulted in a significant rebound in spot quotations for NAND Flash. With that being said, buyers are not all that willing to follow up with the corresponding prices that had a significant jump within a short period and have slightly stagnated in procurement. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have climbed at 3.96% this week, arriving at US$1.757.

According to Taiwan’s TechNews, with the ongoing reduction in production by major memory manufacturers and the visible benefits of inventory clearance in the market, NAND Flash prices are beginning to rebound, and DRAM prices are expected to follow suit. This signals a ray of hope for memory manufacturers who have endured the longest-ever price downturn, finally seeing light at the end of the tunnel.

To reduce losses, NAND Flash suppliers have implemented multiple production cuts since 2023, aiming to lift prices and halt further declines. This strategy has started to yield results, with reports of wafer contract prices for NAND Flash rebounding in August and continuing to rise in September, putting NAND Flash ahead of DRAM in its recovery.

Samsung, a leading player, has continued its production cuts, mainly focusing on products with less than 128 layers. Their September output decreased by nearly 50%, prompting other manufacturers to follow suit and demonstrate the benefits of inventory adjustments. Market experts also predict that NAND Flash prices will continue to rise in the fourth quarter. TrendForce is optimistic about NAND Flash pricing for Q4, estimating an increase of around 3% to 8%, higher than the initial projection of 0% to 5%.

While DRAM price increases have lagged behind NAND Flash, the benefits of production cuts by major manufacturers and accelerated inventory clearance are expected to lead to a gradual price rise starting in the fourth quarter. Market expectations are that this upward trend will mark the beginning of the next growth cycle.

Industry experts point out that the rise in DRAM prices is not only due to factors like production cuts and inventory clearance but also linked to the artificial intelligence market. The demand for DDR5 in the data center market driven by AI applications has limited capacity supply, leading to an early price surge. Additionally, DDR3, which major manufacturers have gradually phased out but still has market demand due to limited supply, is experiencing a significant price increase.

As for the current mainstream DDR4, although manufacturers are working to clear substantial inventories in hopes of boosting prices, there is still unfavorable news in the market. Intel’s new Meteor Lake computing platform only supports DDR5 and not DDR4, which poses additional challenges for manufacturers with high DDR4 inventories.

(Photo credit: Samsung)

Due to factors such as high inflation, sluggish demand in the consumer electronics sector, and other influences, the memory market has experienced a downturn. Major manufacturers like Kioxia and Micron began reducing capacity in the fourth quarter of the previous year, and in 2023, Samsung announced its entry into the production reduction trend. However, as market demand continues to weaken, the memory market in 2023 has yet to show signs of recovery, with prices continuing to decline and manufacturers facing operational pressure.

In this context, some memory manufacturers are hoping to stabilize prices and rebalance market supply and demand by continuing to reduce production.

According to reports from Taiwan’s media The Commercial Times,” DRAM manufacturer Nanya Technology is following the footsteps of major players by adjusting production capacity, lowering utilization rates, flexibly adjusting product portfolios and capex, and dynamically adapting to customer demands and market changes to cope with the weak market conditions. It is expected that production capacity will be adjusted dynamically, with reductions of up to 20%.

Previously, TrendForce’s research showed that due to DRAM suppliers initiating production cuts one after another, overall DRAM supply bits have decreased quarter by quarter. Coupled with seasonal demand support, this has eased the pressure on supplier inventories. It is expected that the price decline in the third quarter for DRAM will converge to around 0-5%. However, due to the fact that supplier inventories remain high throughout the year, there is still significant pressure for DRAM prices to bottom out and rebound, with the actual stabilization and recovery likely to occur in 2024.

As for NAND Flash, recent surveys by TrendForce indicate that, in response to the continued weakening demand, Samsung has announced an increase in production cuts starting from September, with reductions mainly focused on processes below 128 layers. Other suppliers are expected to follow suit and expand production cuts in the fourth quarter to accelerate inventory reduction.

As NAND Flash manufacturers expand their production cut efforts, TrendForce estimates that NAND Flash prices in the fourth quarter are expected to remain stable or see a slight increase, with an estimated increase of approximately 0-5%. However, if the upward trend in NAND Flash prices is to continue into 2024, it will still rely on sustained production reductions, as well as the observation of whether Enterprise SSD purchase orders will see a significant resurgence.

(Photo credit: Micron)

DRAM Spot Market
Spot prices of chips in the lower price range have started to elevate this week as some NAND Flash suppliers are very committed to raising their spot prices. On the whole, there has been some stabilization of DRAM spot prices, and the overall volume of spot transactions has also increased a bit. Looking ahead in the short term, it remains to be seen whether suppliers’ ongoing production cuts will spur buyers to stock up. However, spot prices are expected to remain mostly flat until the end of this year. The average spot price of the mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) rose by 0.28% from US$1.450 last week to US$1.454 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market

Buyers, concerned over the cessation of low prices, are continuously proposing order inquiries, though they are hesitant towards following up on prices and hoarding inventory during actual transactions. Continuity of transaction dynamics is not apparent in the spot market, where several packaged dies are seeing repeated fluctuations. Compared to the panicked purchases over the past several weeks, buyers have now composed themselves, and are deciding on procurements based on the recovery of demand. Wafer remains as the category with a clearer inflation tendency, where 512Gb TLC wafer spots have climbed 2.02% in the spot market this week, arriving at US$1.620.