TrendForce has released the latest spot prices for DRAM and NAND Flash, indicating that market demand remains weak and there are no signs of a rebound in spot prices. The details are as follows.

DRAM Spot Market:

Similar to the contract market, the spot market is still showing weak demand, and spot prices on the whole have been registering small daily declines. There is no indication of a turnaround anytime soon. Both spot prices of DDR4 and DDR5 products are falling as channel customers are restrained with respect to stock-up activities. The average spot price of the mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) fell by 0.33% from US$1.506 last week to US$1.501 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market:

Recent spot market transactions remain relatively apathetic under sporadic inquiries and sluggish demand, and concluded prices of NAND Flash products are still slowly dropping due to the lack of stimulation from seasonal order pulls. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have dropped by 0.21% this week, arriving at US$1.408.

High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is emerging as the preferred solution for overcoming memory transfer speed restrictions due to the bandwidth limitations of DDR SDRAM in high-speed computation. HBM is recognized for its revolutionary transmission efficiency and plays a pivotal role in allowing core computational components to operate at their maximum capacity. Top-tier AI server GPUs have set a new industry standard by primarily using HBM. TrendForce forecasts that global demand for HBM will experience almost 60% growth annually in 2023, reaching 290 million GB, with a further 30% growth in 2024.

TrendForce’s forecast for 2025, taking into account five large-scale AIGC products equivalent to ChatGPT, 25 mid-size AIGC products from Midjourney, and 80 small AIGC products, the minimum computing resources required globally could range from 145,600 to 233,700 Nvidia A100 GPUs. Emerging technologies such as supercomputers, 8K video streaming, and AR/VR, among others, are expected to simultaneously increase the workload on cloud computing systems due to escalating demands for high-speed computing.

HBM is unequivocally a superior solution for building high-speed computing platforms, thanks to its higher bandwidth and lower energy consumption compared to DDR SDRAM. This distinction is clear when comparing DDR4 SDRAM and DDR5 SDRAM, released in 2014 and 2020 respectively, whose bandwidths only differed by a factor of two. Regardless of whether DDR5 or the future DDR6 is used, the quest for higher transmission performance will inevitably lead to an increase in power consumption, which could potentially affect system performance adversely. Taking HBM3 and DDR5 as examples, the former’s bandwidth is 15 times that of the latter and can be further enhanced by adding more stacked chips. Furthermore, HBM can replace a portion of GDDR SDRAM or DDR SDRAM, thus managing power consumption more effectively.

TrendForce concludes that the current driving force behind the increasing demand is AI servers equipped with Nvidia A100, H100, AMD MI300, and large CSPs such as Google and AWS, which are developing their own ASICs. It is estimated that the shipment volume of AI servers, including those equipped with GPUs, FPGAs, and ASICs, will reach nearly 1.2 million units in 2023, marking an annual growth rate of almost 38%. TrendForce also anticipates a concurrent surge in the shipment volume of AI chips, with growth potentially exceeding 50%.

DRAM Spot Market
Regarding recent developments in the spot market, there have been sporadic price upticks for low-priced DDR4 products. Meanwhile, prices of DDR5 products have kept falling due to the plentiful chip supply. Unlike the contract market, the spot market has been relatively unaffected by discussions about the possibility of price hikes, and spot trading as a whole is rather tepid. Furthermore, module houses were previously quite aggressive in stocking up, so they are now eager to sell as their inventories remain at a fairly high level. The average spot price of the mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) dropped by 0.13% from US$1.517 last week to US$1.515 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market
Spot market demand, different from that of the contract market, remains relatively sluggish recently, where concluded prices are still dropping due to sufficient stocks, despite a slight increment in price inquiries. 512Gb TLC wafer spots have dropped by 0.28% this week, arriving at US$1.413.

According to the latest weekly memory spot prices published by TrendForce, the spot prices of DDR5 chips have returned to a downward trend, resulting in no signs of recovery in overall spot prices. For more details, please refer to the information below:

DRAM Spot Market:
Spot prices of DDR5 chips have swung down again, and spot prices of DDR4 and DDR3 products continue to register incremental declines on a daily basis. The spot market on the whole has yet to show signs of a price rebound. Lately, some buyers have been seeking quotes for small-quantity orders, but this kind of demand does not generate a sufficient momentum to expand the overall transaction volume. Presently, most traders generally believe that spot prices are almost at the bottom, but they remain passive in stocking up because the demand outlook is quite negative. The average spot price of the mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) fell by 0.97% from US$1.543 last week to US$1.528 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market:
It is now a consensus within the market that prices are no longer able to drop further amidst the manifestation of efficacy from the diminished provision among suppliers. Spot prices are now starting to stabilize on the whole despite transactions having yet to magnify accordingly. 512Gb TLC wafer has dropped by 0.49% this week, arriving at US$1.420.

TrendForce’s latest research indicates that, as production cuts to DRAM and NAND Flash have not kept pace with weakening demand, the ASP of some products is expected to decline further in 2Q23. DRAM prices are projected to fall 13~18%; NAND Flash is expected to fall between 8~13%.

DRAM Spot Market

In the spot market, the trajectory of prices of DDR5 chips is going to be a highlight in the short term. Some sellers are now willing to lower quotes on DDR5 products that have been enjoying price hikes for many consecutive days. However, there have been few to no actual transactions, so TrendForce will continue to closely monitor changes in the prices of these products. As for spot prices of DDR3 and DDR4 products, they are still on a downward trajectory with no sign of easing. The average spot price of mainstream chips (i.e., DDR4 1Gx8 2666MT/s) fell by 1.33% from US$1.575 last week to US$1.554 this week.

NAND Flash Spot Market
Suppliers continue to enlarge in production cuts. Despite the insignificant increase in spot market demand, the continuously shrinking output of small-capacity wafers, as well as the attempt at price revitalization among a number of suppliers, have pulled up demand and transactions of low-priced inventory within the spot market, which led to a small price increment. However, mainstream wafer prices have yet to suspend in decline. 512Gb TLC wafer has dropped by 0.21% this week, arriving at US$1.427.